Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Owen Scott Muir

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

clinician · Psychiatrist · Chief Medical Officer, Radial · Full archive (tier A)How completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method › · 2,500 statements

About this person

Child, adolescent and adult psychiatrist. Co-founded Fermata, an interventional psychiatry clinic in Brooklyn, then joined Radial as Chief Medical Officer; also works with Neurolief. Writes The Frontier Psychiatrists on Substack (1,126 posts since May 2021) on interventional psychiatry, psychedelics, payers and health policy.

The Frontier Psychiatrists (Substack)

Scoreboard

0.20
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method › · 95% 0.10 to 0.32 · provisionalHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method ›

Ahead of a coin flip, provisional.

Resolved eventsA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method ›
21
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
32
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
6
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
1
More metrics
Hit rateThe share of clusters where the person was on the right side of 0.50. Items at exactly 0.50 are left out. Reported with a Wilson interval. Method ›
78% (14 of 15)
Dated viewThe headline panel restricted to items with a deadline in the person's own words. Shown beside the headline; it was the rules 1.0 headline. Method ›
1 of 2 · 2 events
Undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›
0.18 · 19 events · 24-month window
Skill1 minus the person's Brier divided by a reference Brier on the same clusters. Positive beats the reference; 0 equals it. Method › against base ratesThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
needs 10 paired events · 3 now
Market skillThe last public prediction-market price up to 7 days before the statement, on a question whose deadline is within one quarter of the item's. Used for the market row and market skill. Method ›
needs 5 events with a market quote · 0 now
Leave-one-out changeThe largest change in the mean Brier when one cluster is removed. A stability check next to the interval. Method ›
0.03
Affiliated shareA flag on an item where a third party decides the event but the person has a disclosed role, stake, employment, board seat or trial site in an entity named in the event. Scored and flagged; the headline is shown with and without. Method ›
3%
Headline without affiliated itemsThe headline metrics recomputed on clusters with no affiliated item. Shown only when both sides have enough clusters. Method ›
0.20
Murphy decompositionThe mean Brier split into reliability (how far the words were from the truth), resolution (how much the words sorted outcomes) and uncertainty (how hard the events were): B = REL - RES + UNC. Method ›
needs 30 resolved events · 21 now
Scoreable shareAdmitted headline items divided by sincere statements, with a Wilson interval. The share of what the person said that could be checked. Method ›
0.7% (15 dated of 2,186 sincere)
TRUETRUE9FALSEFALSE17KNOWN TRUEKNOWN TRUE6PENDINGPENDING32VOIDVOID670ITEMS1 TICK = 1 ITEM

Headline panel · 65 items

Brier over time

Cumulative Brier 0.20 after 21 events, up from 0.02 in 2023 Q2.

quarterfewer than 3 eventscoin flip 0.25
COIN FLIP00.20.40.6202420252026Muir · 2023-Q2 · 0.02 · n=1Muir · 2024-Q3 · 0.05 · n=6Muir · 2025-Q1 · 0.10 · n=8Muir · 2025-Q2 · 0.11 · n=10Muir · 2025-Q3 · 0.11 · n=11Muir · 2025-Q4 · 0.21 · n=13Muir · 2026-Q1 · 0.25 · n=15Muir · 2026-Q2 · 0.21 · n=20Muir · 2026-Q3 · 0.20 · n=210.20MUIR0.020.25BRIER · LOWER IS BETTER

Headline panel · by deadline quarter

Areas

Regulatory decisions holds 11 of 21 resolved events.

one resolved eventBrier per area (null under 5)
REGULATORY150.19TRIALS3COMPANY2PAYER5PRACTICE1

Resolved events by area

Admission

77 admitted

1 in 32 statements is a checkable claim; 26 are resolved.

FOUND2,500SINCERE2,186ADMITTED77RESOLVED261 RUNG = 50 STATEMENTS
How to read
Found is every forward-looking statement in the corpus. Sincere removes satire and third-party claims. AdmittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › passed intake under the rules. ResolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › has an outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›. Method › Reason codes · Every statement by Muir ›

Every statement · Muir

Not admitted by reason

Vague or promotional accounts for 748 of 2,423 statements not admitted.

VAGUE OR PROMOTIONAL748COMMITMENT (OWN VENTURE)541OUTSIDE THE FIVE AREAS424NOT A FORECAST291THIRD-PARTY CLAIM161SATIRE OR IRONY139NORMATIVE45OUTCOME ALREADY PUBLIC27DUPLICATE EXTRACTION24REPORT OR SCOOP20PARAPHRASE, NOT OWN WORDS31 RUNG = 25 STATEMENTS
How to read
A statement that is not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › keeps its quote and a reason codeThe logged reason a statement was not admitted: VAGUE, CONTROL, REPORT, NORMATIVE, THIRD_PARTY, SATIRE, KNOWN, OUT_OF_AREA, NOT_FORECAST, DUPLICATE. Method ›; it is counted, never scored. An admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › statement becomes an itemAn admitted statement with its intake fields: event, deadline, probability, tags. An item carries no outcome fields; the outcome lives on the registry event. Method ›. Each rung links to the statements behind it.

Not admitted · reason codes

Sensitivity

21 events

Other rules move the headline by at most 0.04.

VariantBrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›N
Headline0.2021
Dated items only— needs 10 events · 2 now2
Lexicon ends 0.85/0.150.1921
Flat 0.750.1921
Kent words0.2021
Non-affiliated only0.2021
Prospective only— needs 10 events · 0 now0
Undated 36 months0.1612

Sensitivity panel · same events

Calibration

When Muir says "will", it happens 37% of the time.

bin, area = eventsperfect calibrationx = stated confidence
SAID = CAME TRUE0%50%100%0%50%100%all bins: may, unlikely, probably · n=13may, unlikely, probablyall bins · n=13will · n=13n=1358% said · 37% came trueSHARE THAT CAME TRUE

Headline panel · 21 events

Claims

65 claims since 2022; 26 resolved, 38 pending.

truefalsependingvoid
20222023202420252026202720286 JUL 2022Cerebral: government enforcement outcome over its prescribing practices · true · p 50%11 JUL 2022SNT or accelerated iTBS for depression: a subsequent RCT meets its primary endpoint · true · p 90%9 AUG 2022DEA per-state physical-location registration requirement for controlled-substance prescribing is rescinded · false · p 10%8 SEP 2022SAINT neuromodulation system becomes commercially available in the US · true · p 90%8 SEP 2022A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · false · p 10%12 MAR 2023BetterHelp or Teladoc Health ceases operations · false · p 50%22 MAR 2023DEA February 2023 proposed telemedicine controlled-substance rule is revised, withdrawn or replaced · true · p 50%10 APR 2023A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · pending · p 90%1 MAY 2023DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · true · p 87%1 MAY 2023DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing a second time · true · p 70%6 JUN 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · true · p 50%6 SEP 2023SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · true · p 90%1 DEC 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · false · p 90%4 JAN 2024FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication · false · p 90%29 MAR 2024PCN-101 (arketamine) development is discontinued · false · p 30%23 MAY 2024ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · true · p 90%26 MAY 2024Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · false · p 70%7 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%10 JUN 2024First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · false · p 50%10 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 10%14 JUN 2024REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines · void · p 90%15 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 30%16 JUN 2024DOJ charges a second telehealth company over controlled-substance prescribing · false · p 50%21 JUN 2024FDA approval of prazosin for PTSD or PTSD-associated nightmares · false · p 10%26 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%10 AUG 2024FDA grants the Lykos appeal of the 2024 midomafetamine complete response letter · false · p 10%11 AUG 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 10%14 OCT 2024Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · pending · p 50%13 NOV 2024FDA approval of xanomeline-trospium (Cobenfy) for bipolar disorder · pending · p 90%30 MAR 2025Early-TMS trial (rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI for depression in pregnancy) reports its primary result · false · p 90%2 APR 2025Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · pending · p 90%20 JUL 2025FDA approval of brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD · pending · p 30%21 JUL 2025FDA approval of brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD · pending · p 30%27 JUL 2025First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · pending · p 90%9 AUG 2025UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression · pending · p 10%5 SEP 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 10%29 SEP 2025Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · pending · p 50%30 NOV 2025A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · pending · p 90%18 DEC 2025Done Global second federal indictment: conviction · pending · p 70%1 JAN 2026ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026Sanmai transcranial focused ultrasound trial reports topline results · pending · p 70%1 JAN 2026A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · pending · p 90%AFF1 JAN 2026Three or more at-home depression treatment devices on the US market · pending · p 90%AFF1 JAN 2026Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025 · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026A pediatric or child-psychiatry society warns against non-fluoxetine antidepressants for youth depression · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026At least two pandemic-era mental-health companies cease operations · pending · p 90%5 JAN 2026An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · pending · p 90%15 JAN 2026Monarch eTNS large-scale replication trial results are published · pending · p 70%25 FEB 2026Kale Award trial (bilateral versus unilateral TMS for suicidal ideation) reports its primary result · pending · p 10%23 MAR 2026FDA authorizes a TMS device for psychosis · pending · p 90%23 MAR 2026FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication · pending · p 90%10 MAY 2026FDA or DEA opens a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States · pending · p 50%11 MAY 2026FDA authorizes a TMS device for ADHD · pending · p 90%11 MAY 2026A US health plan covers accelerated TMS for PTSD, bipolar disorder, OCD or ADHD · pending · p 70%16 MAY 2026An additional US health plan covers accelerated TMS · pending · p 90%2 JUL 2026DT120 (LSD) Voyage Phase 3 trial in generalized anxiety disorder reports its topline result · pending · p 70%2 JUL 2026First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · pending · p 90%16 AUG 2026Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · pending · p 10%19 AUG 2026REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines · pending · p 90%19 AUG 2026FDA approves a psychedelic drug product with no required post-dose monitoring · pending · p 10%19 AUG 2026Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · pending · p 10%25 AUG 2026First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · pending · p 90%27 AUG 2026Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · pending · p 10%3 SEP 2026A US health plan covers intravenous ketamine for bipolar depression · pending · p 30%TODAYDOT AREA = P · HAIRLINE = SAID TO DUE

All admitted items

Claims and events

30 claims against 60 events in the field.

saiddueevent
27 Jul 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its proposed Schedule I placement of five tryptamines after hearin8 Aug 2022 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-2): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-2: KarXT beat placebo on PANSS total sc19 Aug 2022 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity, AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), the first oral NMDA receptor29 Aug 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its April 2022 proposal to place DOI and DOC in Schedule I, citing6 Sep 2022 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): FDA grants 510(k) clearance to Magnus Medical's SAINT Neuromodulation System (MR3 Nov 2022 · Compass Pathways (COMP360 phase 2b): NEJM publishes Compass phase 2b: a single 25 mg COMP360 psilocybin dose beat 1 m8 Nov 2022 · Colorado voters: Colorado voters approve Proposition 122 (Natural Medicine Health Act), decrimina8 Dec 2022 · Relmada Therapeutics (REL-1017): Relmada's esmethadone fails a second large phase 3 depression trial two months a27 Dec 2022 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA adopts final administrative rules implementing Measure 109 psilocybin servic2 Jan 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon Psilocybin Services begins accepting applications for manufacturer, servi3 Feb 2023 · TGA (Australia): TGA announces final decision to reschedule psilocybin (TRD) and MDMA (PTSD) to STGA (AUSTRALIA): TGA ANNOUNCES FINAL DECISION TO RESCHEDULE PSILOCYBIN (TRD) AND MDMA (PTSD) TO S1 Mar 2023 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rules on telemedicine prescribing of controlled substance6 Mar 2023 · atai Life Sciences: atai lays off about 30% of staff and reviews its pipeline two months after the P7 Mar 2023 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Mace and Dean: Breakthrough Therapies Act reintroduced to let DEA move FDA breakthrough-designa7 Mar 2023 · Synthesis Institute: Synthesis Institute, a psilocybin retreat operator and Oregon's largest facilita16 Mar 2023 · Ketamine Wellness Centers (Delic Holdings): Ketamine Wellness Centers, a Delic Holdings subsidiary, abruptly shuts all of it20 Mar 2023 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-3): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-3, its third positive registrational Ka22 Mar 2023 · Field Trip Health & Wellness: Field Trip Health & Wellness obtains CCAA creditor protection from the Ontario S5 May 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon issues its first psilocybin service center license (EPIC Healing Eugene);10 May 2023 · DEA and HHS: First temporary extension of COVID-19 telemedicine flexibilities for controlled 23 May 2023 · Colorado Governor Polis: Governor signs SB23-290 (Natural Medicine Regulation and Legalization), creating24 May 2023 · ELEKT-D (ketamine vs ECT): NEJM publishes ELEKT-D: subanesthetic IV ketamine was noninferior to ECT in 403 26 Jun 2023 · FDA: FDA issues draft guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Invest1 Jul 2023 · TGA (Australia): Rescheduling takes effect: authorised psychiatrists may prescribe MDMA for PTSD 5 Jul 2023 · Wesana Health: Wesana Health closes the sale of its SANA-013 assets, completing its exit from t21 Jul 2023 · Neurolief (Relivion DP, MOOD trial): Neurolief reports a positive interim analysis of its MOOD pivotal trial of at-ho4 Aug 2023 · Sage Therapeutics / Biogen (zuranolone): FDA approves Zurzuvae (zuranolone) as the first oral treatment for postpartum de16 Aug 2023 · Compass Pathways: Compass Pathways raises $285M in a private placement to fund the COMP360 phase 329 Aug 2023 · HHS: HHS recommends to DEA that marijuana be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III of31 Aug 2023 · Usona Institute (PSIL201): JAMA publishes Usona's phase 2 PSIL201: a single 25 mg psilocybin dose beat niac14 Sep 2023 · MAPS PBC (MAPP2): Nature Medicine publishes confirmatory phase 3 MAPP2 of MDMA-assisted therapy in15 Sep 2023 · Neumora Therapeutics: Neumora completes a $250M IPO to fund late-stage navacaprant depression trials.5 Oct 2023 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato, ESCAPE-TRD): NEJM publishes ESCAPE-TRD: esketamine nasal spray beat quetiapine XR on remissio7 Oct 2023 · California Governor Newsom: Newsom vetoes SB 58, which would have decriminalized psilocybin and other plant 10 Oct 2023 · DEA and HHS: Second temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati10 Oct 2023 · FDA: FDA warns patients and providers about risks of compounded ketamine products, in18 Oct 2023 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-012 (package insert update).26 Oct 2023 · Nue Life Health: Venture studio Beckley Waves acquires ketamine telehealth company Nue Life after30 Nov 2023 · Cybin (CYB003): Cybin reports positive phase 2 topline for deuterated psilocybin analog CYB003 i13 Dec 2023 · DEA: DEA again proposes placing DOI and DOC (phenethylamine research hallucinogens) i14 Dec 2023 · MindMed (MM120, phase 2b GAD): MindMed reports positive phase 2b of MM120 (LSD) in GAD with dose-dependent HAM-22 Dec 2023 · Bristol Myers Squibb / Karuna Therapeutics: Bristol Myers Squibb agrees to acquire Karuna Therapeutics, adding KarXT ahead o22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 4 Jan 2024 · atai Life Sciences / Beckley Psytech: atai makes a $50M strategic investment in Beckley Psytech, taking a minority sta5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot5 Jan 2024 · Lykos Therapeutics (ex-MAPS PBC): MAPS PBC rebrands as Lykos Therapeutics and raises a $100M Series A ahead of its5 Jan 2024 · Stanford Medicine / VETS (magnesium-ibogaine): Nature Medicine publishes Stanford's open-label magnesium-ibogaine study in 30 s13 Feb 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA accepts Lykos's NDA for midomafetamine (MDMA)-assisted therapy for PTSD with7 Mar 2024 · FDA / MindMed: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to MM120 (LSD D-tartrate) for genera13 Mar 2024 · Cybin (CYB003): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to CYB003 for adjunctive treatment o13 Mar 2024 · FDA / Cybin: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to CYB003 (deuterated psilocybin ana18 Mar 2024 · Cybin: Cybin closes an oversubscribed $150M private placement to fund CYB003 phase 3 an20 Mar 2024 · Usona Institute (uAspire / PSIL301): Usona launches phase 3 uAspire: single 25 mg psilocybin dose vs placebo in about21 Mar 2024 · Utah Legislature: SB 266 becomes law without the governor's signature, allowing large Utah health 26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS26 Mar 2024 · Neuronetics (NeuroStar): FDA clears NeuroStar TMS as a first-line adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 16 Apr 2024 · European Medicines Agency: EMA holds a multi-stakeholder workshop 'Psychedelics: towards an EU regulatory f21 May 2024 · DOJ / DEA: DOJ publishes proposed rule to transfer marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II30 May 2024 · Johnson & Johnson (seltorexant, MDD3001): J&J reports phase 3 MDD3001: adjunctive seltorexant met all primary and secondar4 Jun 2024 · FDA PDAC / Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee votes against MDMA-assisted theCEREBRAL: GOVERNM…Cerebral: government enforcement outcome over its prescribing practices · stated 6 Jul 2022Cerebral: government enforcement outcome over its prescribing practices · restated 6 Jul 2022 · p 50%Cerebral: government enforcement outcome over its prescribing practices · hit 28 Dec 2023SNT OR ACCELERATE…SNT or accelerated iTBS for depression: a subsequent RCT meets its primary endpoint · stated 11 Jul 2022SNT or accelerated iTBS for depression: a subsequent RCT meets its primary endpoint · restated 11 Jul 2022 · p 90%SNT or accelerated iTBS for depression: a subsequent RCT meets its primary endpoint · hit 10 Jul 2024DEA PER-STATE PHY…DEA per-state physical-location registration requirement for controlled-substance prescribing is rescinded · stated 9 Aug 2022DEA per-state physical-location registration requirement for controlled-substance prescribing is rescinded · restated 9 Aug 2022 · p 10%DEA per-state physical-location registration requirement for controlled-substance prescribing is rescinded · miss 9 Aug 2024SAINT NEUROMODULA…SAINT neuromodulation system becomes commercially available in the US · stated 8 Sep 2022SAINT neuromodulation system becomes commercially available in the US · restated 8 Sep 2022 · p 90%SAINT neuromodulation system becomes commercially available in the US · hit 30 Apr 2024A NATIONAL US PAY…A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · stated 8 Sep 2022A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · restated 8 Sep 2022 · p 10%A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · miss 8 Sep 2024BETTERHELP OR TEL…BetterHelp or Teladoc Health ceases operations · stated 12 Mar 2023BetterHelp or Teladoc Health ceases operations · restated 12 Mar 2023 · p 50%BetterHelp or Teladoc Health ceases operations · miss 12 Mar 2025DEA FEBRUARY 2023…DEA February 2023 proposed telemedicine controlled-substance rule is revised, withdrawn or replaced · stated 22 Mar 2023DEA February 2023 proposed telemedicine controlled-substance rule is revised, withdrawn or replaced · restated 22 Mar 2023 · p 50%DEA February 2023 proposed telemedicine controlled-substance rule is revised, withdrawn or replaced · hit 17 Jan 2025A DEPRESSION PRAC…A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · stated 10 Apr 2023A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · restated 10 Apr 2023 · p 90%DEA EXTENDS THE C…DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · stated 1 May 2023DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · restated 1 May 2023 · p 70%DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · restated 1 May 2023 · p 70%DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · restated 1 May 2023 · p 90%DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · restated 1 May 2023 · p 90%DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end · hit 9 May 2023DEA EXTENDS THE C…DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing a second time · stated 1 May 2023DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing a second time · restated 1 May 2023 · p 70%DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing a second time · hit 10 Oct 2023MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · stated 6 Jun 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · restated 6 Jun 2023 · p 50%Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · hit 1 Oct 2023SAINT NEUROMODULA…SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · stated 6 Sep 2023SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · restated 6 Sep 2023 · p 90%SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · hit 11 Jun 2024MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · stated 1 Dec 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · restated 1 Dec 2023 · p 90%Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · miss 1 Dec 2025FDA AUTHORIZES A…FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication · stated 4 Jan 2024FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication · restated 4 Jan 2024 · p 90%FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication · miss 4 Jan 2026PCN-101 (ARKETAMI…PCN-101 (arketamine) development is discontinued · stated 29 Mar 2024PCN-101 (arketamine) development is discontinued · restated 29 Mar 2024 · p 30%PCN-101 (arketamine) development is discontinued · miss 29 Mar 2026ERISA FIDUCIARY L…ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · stated 23 May 2024ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · restated 23 May 2024 · p 90%ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · hit 19 Mar 2026MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · stated 26 May 2024Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · restated 26 May 2024 · p 70%Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · miss 26 May 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 7 Jun 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 7 Jun 2024 · p 50%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 7 Jun 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 10 Jun 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 10 Jun 2024 · p 10%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 10 Jun 2026FIRST FDA APPROVA…First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · stated 10 Jun 2024First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · restated 10 Jun 2024 · p 50%First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · miss 10 Jun 2026REMS REQUIREMENT…REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines · stated 14 Jun 2024REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines · restated 14 Jun 2024 · p 90%REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines · void 14 Jun 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 15 Jun 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 15 Jun 2024 · p 30%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 15 Jun 2026DOJ CHARGES A SEC…DOJ charges a second telehealth company over controlled-substance prescribing · stated 16 Jun 2024DOJ charges a second telehealth company over controlled-substance prescribing · restated 16 Jun 2024 · p 50%DOJ charges a second telehealth company over controlled-substance prescribing · miss 16 Jun 2026FDA APPROVAL OF P…FDA approval of prazosin for PTSD or PTSD-associated nightmares · stated 21 Jun 2024FDA approval of prazosin for PTSD or PTSD-associated nightmares · restated 21 Jun 2024 · p 10%FDA approval of prazosin for PTSD or PTSD-associated nightmares · miss 21 Jun 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 26 Jun 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 26 Jun 2024 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 26 Jun 2026FDA GRANTS THE LY…FDA grants the Lykos appeal of the 2024 midomafetamine complete response letter · stated 10 Aug 2024FDA grants the Lykos appeal of the 2024 midomafetamine complete response letter · restated 10 Aug 2024 · p 10%FDA grants the Lykos appeal of the 2024 midomafetamine complete response letter · miss 10 Aug 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 11 Aug 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 11 Aug 2024 · p 10%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 11 Aug 2026PARITY LITIGATION…Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · stated 14 Oct 2024Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · restated 14 Oct 2024 · p 50%FDA APPROVAL OF X…FDA approval of xanomeline-trospium (Cobenfy) for bipolar disorder · stated 13 Nov 2024FDA approval of xanomeline-trospium (Cobenfy) for bipolar disorder · restated 13 Nov 2024 · p 90%EARLY-TMS TRIAL (…Early-TMS trial (rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI for depression in pregnancy) reports its primary result · stated 30 Mar 2025Early-TMS trial (rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI for depression in pregnancy) reports its primary result · restated 30 Mar 2025 · p 90%Early-TMS trial (rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI for depression in pregnancy) reports its primary result · miss 31 Dec 2025TODAY202320242025202620272028

Headline panel · all areas

Receding horizon

Muir promised FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD 6 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202520262027202520262027TODAY2024-06-07: by 2026-06-07 · p 0.502024-06-10: by 2026-06-10 · p 0.102024-06-15: by 2026-06-15 · p 0.302024-06-26: by 2026-06-26 · p 0.702024-08-11: by 2026-08-11 · p 0.102025-09-05: by 2027-09-05 · p 0.302025-09-05: by 2027-09-05 · p 0.10X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0001

Receding horizon

Muir promised Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202420252026202420252026TODAY2023-12-01: by 2025-12-01 · p 0.902024-05-26: by 2026-05-26 · p 0.70X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0018

Receding horizon

Muir promised FDA authorizes a TMS device for a new indication 2 times; it happened on 3 Jun 2026.

promised datehappened
2024202520262027202820242025202620272028TODAY2024-01-04: by 2026-01-04 · p 0.902026-03-23: by 2028-03-23 · p 0.90HAPPENED 2026-06-03X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0019

Receding horizon

Muir promised REMS requirement on FDA-approved psychedelic medicines 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20252026202720282025202620272028TODAY2024-06-14: by 2026-06-14 · p 0.902026-08-19: by 2028-08-19 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0023

Receding horizon

Muir promised First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20252026202720282025202620272028TODAY2024-06-10: by 2026-06-10 · p 0.502025-07-27: by 2027-07-27 · p 0.902026-07-02: by 2028-07-02 · p 0.902026-08-25: by 2028-08-25 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0024

Receding horizon

Muir promised FDA approval of brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
2026202720262027TODAY2025-07-20: by 2027-07-20 · p 0.302025-07-21: by 2027-07-21 · p 0.30X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0039

Receding horizon

Muir promised ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed 2 times; it happened on 19 Mar 2026.

promised datehappened
202520262027202520262027TODAY2024-05-23: by 2026-05-23 · p 0.902026-01-01: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.90HAPPENED 2026-03-19X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0046

Receding horizon

Muir promised A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202320242025202620272028202320242025202620272028TODAY2022-09-08: by 2024-09-08 · p 0.102025-11-30: by 2027-11-30 · p 0.902026-01-01: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0050

Receding horizon

Muir promised Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
2027202820272028TODAY2026-08-16: by 2028-08-16 · p 0.102026-08-19: by 2028-08-19 · p 0.102026-08-27: by 2028-08-27 · p 0.10X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0067

Waiting for data

TimingFor items scored false whose event later happened: the months between the deadline and the outcome date. Median and quartiles are reported. Method ›1 of 5 false claims that later came true
How to read
A chart appears when its minimum n is met. The minimums are fixed in the rules and listed under Method › Metrics.