Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Known true · enters 31 Dec 2026

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“Much to the surprise of us all, their readout on their concurrent MDD clinical trial program happened before their GAD readout, which is expected later this year.”
· The Best Depression Drug Results Ever? · substack post Paid

Definium Therapeutics (CMO Dan Karlin) read out top-line Phase 3 data for DT120 (LSD, lysergide tartrate ODT) in MDD (EMERGE) the week before the post; the author says the GAD Phase 3 (Voyage) readout is expected later in 2026.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
DT120 (LSD) Voyage Phase 3 trial in generalized anxiety disorder reports its topline result
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Trial outcomes
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “later this year”
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “is expected later this year”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0065 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin B
Registry entry

Definium Therapeutics reports the topline primary endpoint result of the Voyage Phase 3 trial (NCT06741228) of DT120 in generalized anxiety disorder (either direction).

TRUE on the date of the first public report of the Voyage trial's primary endpoint result: Definium Therapeutics' topline press release, a results posting on the ClinicalTrials.gov record NCT06741228, or the first peer-reviewed publication that reports the primary result, whichever is first. The result may be positive or negative; the event is about a primary result being reported. An enrollment-complete or last-patient-visit announcement, an interim safety update, a conference abstract without the primary endpoint estimate, or a readout of a different DT120 trial (for example the MDD trial EMERGE) does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such report is dated by then. Resolution source: Definium Therapeutics' topline press release, with the ClinicalTrials.gov record NCT06741228 as a secondary source.

Resolution source: Definium Therapeutics topline press release; ClinicalTrials.gov record NCT06741228 as secondary source

Readings: 'Their GAD readout, which is expected later this year' is read as: Definium Therapeutics reports the topline primary result of its GAD Phase 3 program in 2026.; The author names that trial in the same post as Voyage, NCT06741228 (the registry bullet coded at owen-2281), so the event is written on that trial.; The claim is about timing, so the event resolves on the first public report of the primary result in either direction, not on whether the endpoint is met.; 'Later this year' = by 31 December 2026 (anchors.json: a year means its last day; origin anchor).; 'Readout' = public report of topline primary-endpoint data. An announcement that the trial has completed or that data are in hand, without the result, does not count.; 'Is expected' is written in the author's own voice with no source cited, so it is read as his expectation (bin B). A coder who reads it as relayed company guidance would code REPORT; that reading is logged here.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Dec 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 12 Aug 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Criterion: first public report of the Voyage (NCT06741228) primary endpoint result, either direction. Definium's press release of 2026-08-12 (07:00 ET) reports the primary endpoint: HAM-A total score change at week 12, LS mean -11.6 (DT120 ODT 100 ug) vs -6.2 (placebo), difference -5.4, p<0.0001, d=0.81; the result is positive. The 2026-08-06 Q2 release gave only timing guidance ('Voyage results anticipated week of August 10'), so nothing earlier disclosed the result. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06741228 (Definium Therapeutics US, Phase 3, GAD, primary completion 2026-07-15) shows no results posted as of its 2026-09-02 update, and no peer-reviewed publication precedes the release. Emerge (MDD, 2026-06-22) and Panorama (GAD, results announced for 2026-09-14) are different trials and do not count. Date = 2026-08-12.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
Adversarial recheck

upheld (date): Checked for an earlier or later first report. Definium's Q2 2026 release (2026-08-06) says only that Voyage enrollment was complete (214 randomized) and that 'topline data anticipated the week of August 10, 2026', with no result. The topline release (ir.definiumtx.com and Business Wire, 2026-08-12 07:00 ET) reports the primary endpoint: HAM-A change at week 12, -11.6 (DT120 ODT 100 ug) vs -6.2 (placebo), difference -5.4, p<0.0001, and calls it the Company's second Phase 3 readout after Emerge (MDD, June), a different trial. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06741228 (Definium Therapeutics US; primary completion 2026-07-15; last update 2026-09-02) has no results posted, and no peer-reviewed publication or conference abstract with the primary estimate predates the release; Panorama (September) is a different trial. 2026-08-12 stands.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 4 events in the field.

saiddueevent
7 Jul 2026 · Compass Pathways (COMP360, COMP006): COMP006 26-week (Part B) data show benefit of two 25 mg doses maintained on aver21 Jul 2026 · Helus Pharma (HLP003 / CYB003, APPROACH): Helus completes enrollment in the phase 3 APPROACH study of HLP003 as adjunctive12 Aug 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120 / MM120, Voyage): Phase 3 Voyage of DT120 ODT 100 µg in GAD meets its primary HAM-A endpoint at we9 Sep 2026 · Compass Pathways (COMP360, COMP005 Part C): Compass reports 52-week open-label COMP005 data: participants who received an adCOMPASS PATHWAYS (COMP360, COMP005 PART C): COMPASS REPORTS 52-WEEK OPEN-LABEL COMP005 DATA: PARTICIPANTS WHO RECEIVED AN ADDT120 (LSD) VOYAG…DT120 (LSD) Voyage Phase 3 trial in generalized anxiety disorder reports its topline result · stated 2 Jul 2026DT120 (LSD) Voyage Phase 3 trial in generalized anxiety disorder reports its topline result · restated 2 Jul 2026 · p 70%70%TODAY

Trial outcomes