False · Brier 0.81
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 30 Mar 2025 · owen-1683
Quote
“Thank goodness we have one more RCT coming this year that didn't make it into the above review because it hasn’t been done yet. ... And soon, thanks to the Early-TMS trial, we will have a direct comparison.”
After reviewing Angeline et al. (2025), which found only three studies of TMS in pregnant women with MDD, the author points to the Early-TMS randomized trial (Becker-Sadzio et al. protocol, published February 2025) comparing rTMS/iTBS with SSRIs, and says it is coming this year.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Early-TMS trial (rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI for depression in pregnancy) reports its primary result
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2025 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “coming this year”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “we have one more RCT coming this year ... we will have a direct comparison”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0035 · deadline 31 Dec 2025 · bin A
Registry entry
The Early-TMS randomized trial reports its primary comparison of rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI treatment in pregnant women with depression (either direction).
TRUE on the date of the first public report of the Early-TMS trial's primary outcome result: the peer-reviewed primary results publication, or the investigators' topline release or a results posting in the trial registry named in the Becker-Sadzio et al. 2025 protocol, whichever is first. The result may favour either arm or neither; the event is about a primary result being reported. The protocol publication, a recruitment update, an interim safety report or a conference abstract without the primary outcome estimate does not count. Resolution source: the peer-reviewed Early-TMS primary results publication (PubMed), with the trial registry entry named in the protocol as the secondary source. FALSE when no primary outcome result has been reported by the deadline.
Resolution source: Early-TMS primary results publication (PubMed); trial registry entry named in the Becker-Sadzio et al. 2025 protocol as secondary source
Readings: 'One more RCT coming this year' and 'soon, thanks to the Early-TMS trial, we will have a direct comparison' are read together as a 2025 report of the trial's rTMS/iTBS-versus-SSRI comparison. Reading 'coming this year' as the trial being run, not reported, would set a different deadline.; The claim is about timing, so the event resolves on the first public report of the primary outcome in either direction, not on which arm wins (the author withholds his pick; see owen-1685).; The trial is identified only by the author's words: the Early-TMS trial, Becker-Sadzio et al. protocol published February 2025, rTMS/iTBS versus SSRI in pregnant women with depression. No registry number is given, so none is written.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2025
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The Early-TMS trial is identified by the Becker-Sadzio et al. protocol (Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci, 2025-02-22), which names ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06545474 as its registry (sponsor University Hospital Tuebingen). PubMed holds only the protocol (PMID 39985658); no primary-results paper. The ClinicalTrials.gov record (last update posted 2024-08-19) shows status 'Not yet recruiting', estimated primary completion 2026-12-31, 106 planned participants and no posted results; no investigator topline release was found. Reading note: the proposition says 'pregnant women with depression', but the registered Early-TMS trial enrols medication-naive adults (18-65) with MDD and excludes pregnancy. Resolved on the named trial; the registry should correct the population wording. No primary result reported as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
- Effects of rTMS Compared to SSRI as Early Treatment of Depression (Early-TMS), NCT06545474 · 19 Aug 2024
- Effectiveness of rTMS compared to SSRI as early treatment of depression - study protocol of a randomized controlled trial (Early-TMS) · 22 Feb 2025
- PubMed E-utilities search for Early-TMS publications (1 record: the protocol, PMID 39985658)
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 17 events in the field.
Trial outcomes