False · Brier 0.49
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 26 May 2024 · owen-1055
Quote
“Psychedelic medicines are likely going to need to follow a similar path to payment in the hospital setting.”
Same post, after arguing that the NTAP add-on payment finally gives psychiatric hospitals a financial route to adopt SAINT. The author states that psychedelic medicines will likely need to follow a similar payment path (add-on payments under bundled hospital payment) to be used in the hospital setting.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 26 May 2026
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “likely going to need to follow a similar path to payment in the hospital setting”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0018 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
CMS approves a Medicare new technology add-on payment (NTAP) for a psychedelic medicine (a psychedelic-class drug, or a therapy that administers one) in an inpatient prospective payment system final rule.
TRUE on the effective date (1 October of the fiscal year) of the Medicare inpatient prospective payment system (IPPS) final rule, published in the Federal Register by CMS, that approves a new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic-class drug (psilocybin, MDMA, LSD, DMT or a related compound) or for a therapy that administers one. An NTAP application, a proposed rule, a CPT code, an FDA approval, a Medicaid or commercial payer decision, or a payment for ketamine or esketamine does not count. Resolution source: the Federal Register, Medicare IPPS final rule, new technology add-on payment section. FALSE at the deadline when no such NTAP approval has been published.
Resolution source: Federal Register (Medicare IPPS final rule, new technology add-on payment section)
Readings: 'this' = the Medicare new technology add-on payment (NTAP) mechanism that the post describes for SAINT; the event is written on that mechanism, not on any payment model in general.; 'psychedelic medicine' = a psychedelic-class drug (psilocybin, MDMA, LSD, DMT and related compounds) or a therapy that administers one; ketamine and esketamine are not counted.; 'paid for' = approval of the add-on payment in a final rule; an application or a proposed rule is not payment.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 26 May 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The IPPS final rules for FY2025 (published 2024-08-28), FY2026 (2025-08-04) and FY2027 (2026-08-04, effective 2026-10-01) approve no new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic-class drug or a therapy that administers one. Federal Register full-text searches of CMS rules published since 2024-07-01 for psilocybin, MDMA, midomafetamine, psychedelic, lysergide and COMP360 each return 0 documents. No psychedelic-class drug holds FDA approval as of 2026-09-13 (FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 lists none through 2026-09-11), and NTAP requires an FDA-authorized product. The SAINT device NTAP (FY2025) and any ketamine or esketamine payment are excluded by the criterion. Next possible qualifying event: the FY2028 IPPS final rule (about August 2027, effective 2027-10-01). Not occurred as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
- Medicare Program; Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals (IPPS) and the Long-Term Care Hospital Prospective Payment System and Policy Changes and Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 Rates (final rule, CMS-1849-F) · 4 Aug 2026
- Medicare Program; Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals (IPPS) and the Long-Term Care Hospital Prospective Payment System and Policy Changes and Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 Rates (final rule) · 4 Aug 2025
- Medicare and Medicaid Programs and the Children's Health Insurance Program; Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals and the Long-Term Care Hospital Prospective Payment System and Policy Changes and Fiscal Year 2025 Rates (final rule) · 28 Aug 2024
- Federal Register API full-text search: CMS rules published since 2024-07-01 containing 'psilocybin' (0 documents)
- Federal Register API full-text search: CMS rules published since 2024-07-01 containing 'psychedelic' (0 documents)
- New Medical Services and New Technologies (new technology add-on payments)
- Novel Drug Approvals for 2026
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Muir promised Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine 2 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0018
Timeline
1 claim against 22 events in the field.
Payer and policy