Pending · due 9 Aug 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 9 Aug 2025 · owen-1834
Quote
“I think Private Equity will see the goldmine in Accelerated TMS…except…for dogs. Cause despite ample evidence, United ain’t budging any time soon, when it comes to humans.”
After noting private-equity roll-ups of veterinary practices and PE interest in human TMS, the author predicts PE will pursue accelerated TMS for dogs (veterinary), not for humans.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 9 Aug 2027
- Probability
- 0.10 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “United ain't budging any time soon” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- denial, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0040 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
UnitedHealthcare adopts a medical policy that covers an accelerated TMS protocol (more than one TMS session per day) for depression in human patients.
TRUE on the effective date of a UnitedHealthcare medical policy or coverage determination guideline, published in UnitedHealthcare's provider policy library, that lists an accelerated TMS protocol (more than one TMS session per day, including accelerated iTBS or fMRI-guided SAINT-type protocols) as proven or medically necessary for major depressive disorder. A policy that covers only standard once-daily TMS, an individual case exception, coverage limited to a clinical trial, or a policy of another payer does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such UnitedHealthcare policy is in force.
Resolution source: UnitedHealthcare medical policies and coverage determination guidelines (UHCprovider.com policy library)
Readings: 'United' = UnitedHealthcare, the insurance arm of UnitedHealth Group named in the post title.; 'Budging' = changing the coverage stance. Per the forecaster, the stance on the statement date is non-coverage of accelerated TMS for humans, so the positive event is adoption of coverage.; 'Accelerated TMS' = protocols with more than one TMS session per day (accelerated iTBS, including fMRI-guided SAINT-type protocols).; 'When it comes to humans' = human patients; veterinary coverage is not part of the event.
How to read
Coder C
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 9 Aug 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- UnitedHealthcare's policy library routes behavioral TMS to the Optum Behavioral Clinical Policy 'Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation' (BH803TMS112025; annual review 2025-11-18, interim review 2026-04-21). It covers a once-daily TMS course for MDD and lists 'Accelerated TMS (aTMS) protocols and/or Theta burst stimulation (TBS) protocols' as unproven and not medically necessary; it notes the 2025-09-16 FDA clearance of BrainsWay's accelerated protocol without changing coverage. UHC's commercial policy 2026T0536W (effective 2026-02-01) and Community Plan policy CS124OH.F (2026-04-01) also deem theta-burst stimulation, including accelerated and MRI-guided protocols, unproven. No UnitedHealthcare policy in force lists a more-than-one-session-per-day protocol (accelerated iTBS, SAINT-type) as proven for MDD, so the proposition is FALSE as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
- Optum Behavioral Clinical Policy: Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (BH803TMS112025; annual review 2025-11-18, interim review 2026-04-21) · 21 Apr 2026
- UnitedHealthcare Commercial and Individual Exchange Medical Policy 2026T0536W: Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation for Treating Physical Health Conditions · 1 Feb 2026
- UnitedHealthcare Community Plan Medical Policy CS124OH.F: Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation for Treating Physical Health Conditions (for Ohio Only) · 1 Apr 2026
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- Not scored
- RestatementsAll of one person's items on one registry event. A cluster is one observation in every metric, so a claim repeated six times still gets one vote. Method ›
- owen-1835
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 15 events in the field.
Payer and policy