Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 18 Dec 2027

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“And yet, given the “already convicted” founders, I doubt this will go that far south. But due process is due to all, even and especially the guilty.”
· It's Not Done Yet: Another DOJ Indictment! · substack post

Reacting to the DOJ boilerplate that an indictment is merely an allegation and defendants are presumed innocent. The author expects the case against Done Global and MMW will not collapse, given the founders' prior convictions.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Done Global second federal indictment: conviction
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 18 Dec 2027
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › D · “I doubt this will go that far south” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
denial, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0043 · deadline none · bin D
Registry entry

Done Global, or an executive of Done Global charged in the December 2025 federal indictment of Done Global and Mindful Mental Wellness P.A., is convicted (jury verdict or accepted guilty plea) on that indictment.

TRUE on the docket date of a jury verdict of guilty, or of a guilty plea entered and accepted by the court, on any count of the December 2025 federal indictment of Done Global and Mindful Mental Wellness P.A. (the indictment announced in the DOJ press release the post annotates), against Done Global as a corporate defendant or against any Done Global executive charged in that indictment. A superseding indictment in the same case is the same case. Convictions in the earlier Done case, convictions of co-defendants other than Done Global or its executives, deferred-prosecution or non-prosecution agreements, civil settlements and dismissals do not count. FALSE on the docket date of the disposition of the last count against the Done Global defendants without a conviction or plea, or at the deadline when no such conviction has been entered.

Resolution source: Federal court docket for the December 2025 Done Global and Mindful Mental Wellness P.A. indictment (PACER via CourtListener); DOJ press releases as a secondary source

Readings: 'This will go that far south' is read, from the DOJ boilerplate it reacts to (an indictment is only an allegation; defendants are presumed innocent), as the case ending with no defendant found guilty or pleading guilty.; 'This' = the new (December 2025) indictment of Done Global and Mindful Mental Wellness P.A., not the earlier case in which the founders Ruthia He and David Brody were convicted.; A partial outcome (some defendants convicted, others acquitted or dismissed) is not 'that far south': the owen-1994 claim requires no conviction or guilty plea at all.; 'Done' is read as Done Global, Inc. and the Done Global executives charged in the pending indictment.; 'Convicted all over again' is read as a conviction on the indictment pending at the statement date, distinct from the earlier convictions the phrase refers back to.; owen-1994 (inverted) is on the same indictment; this event is TRUE on the first conviction of Done Global or a charged Done executive, which differs from the owen-1994 claim's FALSE trigger when a co-defendant other than Done is convicted.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
18 Dec 2027
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
The December 2025 indictment is N.D. Cal. case 3:25-cr-00432, filed 2025-12-17 (Done Global, Inc. counts 1-7; Mindful Mental Wellness P.A. count 1), related to the earlier He/Brody cases before Judge Breyer. The CourtListener/RECAP docket, checked 2026-09-13, shows an initial appearance with arraignment plea on 2025-12-24, stipulations, a motion hearing on 2026-03-25, orders on 2026-06-12 and declarations filed 2026-08-14; it shows no change-of-plea hearing, guilty plea, jury verdict or judgment, and no termination date. The July 2026 sentences of Ruthia He and David Brody belong to the earlier case (3:24-cr-00329) and do not count. No DOJ release announces a conviction or plea of the corporate defendants.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 26 events in the field.

saiddueevent
18 Dec 2025 · President Trump: Executive order directs the Attorney General to complete marijuana rescheduling 31 Dec 2025 · DEA and HHS: Fourth temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati1 Jan 2026 · Czech Republic: Czech medical psilocybin framework takes effect: psychiatrists may administer ps5 Jan 2026 · GH Research (GH001): FDA lifts the clinical hold on GH001, clearing a global phase 3 program in TRD t12 Jan 2026 · Neurolief (Proliv Rx): FDA grants PMA approval to Neurolief's Proliv Rx, the first at-home brain neurom23 Jan 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-027, reverting the October 2025 vendor3 Mar 2026 · AtaiBeckley (BPL-003): AtaiBeckley reports a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA for BPL-003 in ATAIBECKLEY (BPL-003): ATAIBECKLEY REPORTS A SUCCESSFUL END-OF-PHASE 2 MEETING WITH FDA FOR BPL-003 IN 13 Apr 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-028 adding Spanish translations of REM18 Apr 2026 · President Trump: EO 14401 orders FDA priority vouchers for breakthrough psychedelics, an ibogaine23 Apr 2026 · DOJ / DEA (Acting AG Blanche): Final order moves FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical mar24 Apr 2026 · FDA: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360 psilocy24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways: FDA grants Compass a rolling NDA submission and review for COMP360 psilocybin in24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways, Usona Institute, Transcend Therapeutics: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360), Usona24 Apr 2026 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary says he expects an FDA approval decision on at least one priority psyched30 Apr 2026 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity / AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, the fir23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; t8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follDONE GLOBAL SECON…Done Global second federal indictment: conviction · stated 18 Dec 2025Done Global second federal indictment: conviction · restated 18 Dec 2025 · p 70%70%TODAY20262027

Regulatory decisions