Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 14 Oct 2026

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 14 Oct 2024 · owen-1269

Quote

“So, given United Healthcare admitted to violating the Mental Health Parity Law in New York in 2021 , which means they agree they are responsible for complying with the law, it seems it might be the basis for yet more litigation to be at it all over again?”
· Pre-Payment Review: Do We Have Our First New Mental Health Parity Test Case? · substack post

After quoting the 2021 DOL / New York AG settlement ($13.6 million to beneficiaries, $2,084,249 in penalties) with United Behavioral Health and UnitedHealthcare, the author suggests Optum's pre-payment review policy might be the basis for new mental health parity litigation. The post title asks if this is the first new parity test case.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 14 Oct 2026
Probability
0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “it seems it might be the basis for yet more litigation”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › (Vague or promotional) · event new · deadline none · bin –
Registry entry

A lawsuit or a regulator enforcement action alleging that UnitedHealthcare, United Behavioral Health or Optum's pre-payment review of mental health claims violates mental health parity law is filed.

TRUE on the docket date of the first complaint filed in a US federal or state court, or the announcement date of the first enforcement action by the US Department of Labor, a state attorney general or a state insurance regulator, that names UnitedHealthcare, United Behavioral Health or Optum as defendant or respondent and alleges that pre-payment review (post-service, pre-payment claim review) of mental health or substance use disorder claims violates the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act or a state mental health parity law. Actions about prior authorization or other utilization review that do not name pre-payment review do not count. A filed complaint counts; no verdict, order or settlement is needed. Regulator press releases are a secondary source. FALSE when no such complaint or action has been filed or announced by the deadline.

Resolution source: CourtListener (RECAP federal and state dockets); DOL/EBSA and New York Attorney General press releases as secondary

Readings: 'Yet more litigation' is read as a new parity complaint or enforcement action over the pre-payment review policy the post describes, after the 2021 DOL / New York AG settlement the author quotes. A private (individual or class) complaint or a public enforcement action both count.; court_outcome is the closest template for a litigation claim; the event resolves on initiation (docket date of the complaint or announcement of the enforcement action), not on a later ruling.; 'yet more litigation' = a new parity suit or enforcement action on the pre-payment review policy; the 2021 settlement matter itself does not count.; Private, Department of Labor or state attorney general actions all count; the plaintiff is not named.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
14 Oct 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
CourtListener RECAP searched for complaints naming UnitedHealthcare, United Behavioral Health or Optum with pre-payment/prepayment review and parity/MHPAEA, filed after the Aug 2021 DOL/NY AG settlement: none. Hits were unrelated: Neuromon Professionals v. UHC (D.N.J. 2:26-cv-05603, neuromonitoring reimbursement), Massachusetts v. UHC (D. Mass. 1:26-cv-12853, MassHealth upcoding) and ERISA treatment-denial suits vs UBH. Delaware DOI's 2025-09-17 $450,000 parity penalty on UnitedHealthcare cites preauthorization, step therapy, formulary definitions, MAT prior authorization and claims handling, not pre-payment review of MH/SUD claims, so it fails the criterion; no DOL/EBSA or NY AG action on pre-payment review found. News (ClearHealthCosts to 2025-03-28) reports Optum's Aug 2024 pre-payment reviews and a pause, no complaint filed. Not occurred as of 2026-09-13.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 20 events in the field.

saiddueevent
3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, ERISA INDUSTRY COMMITTEE (ERIC): ERIC SUES IN D.D.C. TO VACATE PARTS OF THE 2024 MHPAEA FINAL RULE AS ARBITRARY, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattPARITY LITIGATION…Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · stated 14 Oct 2024Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · restated 14 Oct 2024 · p 50%50%TODAY20252026

Payer and policy

← Earlier · Later → · All statements