Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 29 Sep 2027

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 29 Sep 2025 · owen-1918

Quote

“Maybe they even pass the S.1717 - Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act of 2025 as part of the compromise?”
· Shutdown Crisis Looming As Newsletter Runs Out Of Words · substack post

Closing aside of the shutdown satire. The author speculates that Congress might pass S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act of 2025 (a bill on Medicare coverage of FDA breakthrough-designated products), as part of a shutdown compromise.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 29 Sep 2027
Probability
0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “Maybe”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › (Not a forecast) · event new · deadline none · bin –
Registry entry

Congress enacts S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act of 2025, into law.

TRUE on the date S.1717, or another bill that carries the operative text of S.1717 (a Medicare coverage pathway for FDA breakthrough-designated products), is signed into law or otherwise becomes law, as recorded on Congress.gov. Passage by one chamber, committee action, or inclusion in a bill that is not enacted does not count. FALSE when no such enactment is recorded on Congress.gov by the deadline.

Resolution source: Congress.gov

Readings: The forecaster tied passage to a shutdown compromise ('as part of the compromise'); enactment by any legislative vehicle counts, and the vehicle is not part of the event.; 'as part of the compromise' names the expected vehicle, not a condition; enactment through any vehicle counts.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
29 Sep 2027
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Congress.gov, checked through its API and the GovInfo bill-status data on 2026-09-13, records S.1717's latest action as 2025-05-12 (read twice, referred to Senate Finance) and no law. The House companion H.R.5343 was ordered reported by Ways and Means 37-3 on 2025-09-17, has no floor action and no related bill. No enacted law carrying the operative text (a Medicare coverage pathway for breakthrough devices) was found; CMS's RAPID coverage pathway (Federal Register notice 2026-08-11) is an administrative notice, not an enactment. Committee action does not count under the criterion.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 15 events in the field.

saiddueevent
1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandemCMS / CONGRESS: MEDICARE TELEHEALTH FLEXIBILITIES LAPSE WITH THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN; PRE-PANDEM3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattENACTMENT OF S.17…Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · stated 29 Sep 2025Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · restated 29 Sep 2025 · p 50%50%TODAY20262027

Payer and policy

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