Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Practice adoption

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Measurable uptake in clinical practice: prescription volumes, device installations, clinic counts, guideline changes and workforce shifts.

Leaderboard

No forecaster has 5 resolved events yet.

score95% rangeprovisional (under 30 events)resolved events toward the 5 a score needsreference rowcoin flip 0.25
COIN FLIPANGERMAYER2of 5DOBLIN0of 5MUIR1of 500.10.20.30.40.5← BETTERBRIER
How to read
Persons are ranked only when both have 5 or more resolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › events, share a coverage tierHow completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method ›, and their intervalsThe 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of a statistic over many resamples of the clusters with replacement, drawn with a seeded generator so every run gives the same interval. It shows how much the number could move if the events were redrawn. Method › do not overlap; otherwise rows are alphabetical. The evidence tierHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method › sets whether a row shows a score or a count. Comparators are ad hoc collections (tier C): they get a score at the same minimum, but a search-built corpus under-counts claims, so they are never ranked against the full archive. The reference rowsA leaderboard row that is not a person: the base rate or the market, scored with its own probability on the same clusters. Shows what a rule of thumb would have scored. Method › are scored on the same events; the coin flipThe constant 0.25, the Brier score of saying 0.50 on every item. Drawn as a reference line; not a row on the leaderboard. Method › is the score of saying fifty-fifty every time.

Practice adoption · 3 events

Status

1 of 3 resolved claims came true.

TRUETRUE1FALSEFALSE2PENDINGPENDING912ITEMS1 TICK = 1 ITEM

Practice adoption · 12 items

Claims and events

12 claims against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
ABOUT 5,000 TO 6,…About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States · stated 4 Jun 2021About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 90%A DEPRESSION PRAC…A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · stated 10 Apr 2023A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · restated 10 Apr 2023 · p 90%SAINT NEUROMODULA…SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · stated 6 Sep 2023SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · restated 6 Sep 2023 · p 90%SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · hit 11 Jun 2024ABOUT 1.4 MILLION…About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy · stated 19 Feb 2024About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy · restated 19 Feb 2024 · p 90%PSILOCYBIN PRESCR…Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · stated 23 Feb 2024Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · restated 23 Feb 2024 · p 70%Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · miss 23 Feb 2026A MAJOR PRACTICE…A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · stated 15 Apr 2024A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · restated 15 Apr 2024 · p 90%A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · miss 15 Apr 2026SPRAVATO PATIENTS…Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000 · stated 20 Feb 2025Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000 · restated 20 Feb 2025 · p 80%A MAJOR PRACTICE…A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · stated 1 Oct 2025A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · restated 1 Oct 2025 · p 70%A MAJOR PRACTICE…A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · stated 21 Oct 2025A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · restated 21 Oct 2025 · p 70%GLOBAL ANTIDEPRES…Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025 · stated 1 Jan 2026Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025 · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%A PEDIATRIC OR CH…A pediatric or child-psychiatry society warns against non-fluoxetine antidepressants for youth depression · stated 1 Jan 2026A pediatric or child-psychiatry society warns against non-fluoxetine antidepressants for youth depression · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%A MAJOR PRACTICE…A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · stated 20 Apr 2026A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · restated 20 Apr 2026 · p 60%TODAY202220242026202820302032

Headline panel · Practice adoption

Claims

12 claims since 2021; 3 resolved, 9 pending.

truefalsependingvoid

Practice adoption · all admitted items