Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Known true · enters 31 Dec 2026

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“The first ERISA lawsuit referencing mental health parity violations will be filed. ... I have been arguing that this is a good case to bring. It happens in 2026.”
· Ten 2026 Predictions on Which to Hang Your Hat. · substack post

Item 1 of 'The Frontier Psychiatrists' 2026 predictions': the first ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations will be filed in 2026.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “It happens in 2026”
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will be filed. ... It happens in 2026”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0046 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin A
Registry entry

A lawsuit is filed in a US federal court that pleads an ERISA breach-of-fiduciary-duty claim against the sponsor or fiduciaries of an employer group health plan and cites violations of the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act as a basis for the breach.

TRUE on the docket date of a complaint filed in a US federal district court within the window that (a) pleads a claim under ERISA for breach of fiduciary duty against the sponsor, plan committee or other named fiduciaries of an employer-sponsored group health plan over the plan's design or administration, whether brought by plan participants or by the Department of Labor, and (b) cites the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act (MHPAEA, 'mental health parity') as a basis of the alleged breach, as shown by the complaint text. A suit only for denied benefits under ERISA section 502(a)(1)(B) against an insurer or administrator, a state-court suit, or an amended complaint in a case filed before the window does not count. Legal press reports are a finding aid only. FALSE when no such complaint has been filed by the deadline.

Resolution source: Federal court dockets (CourtListener / PACER)

Readings: 'ERISA lawsuit' is read, from the post's discussion of the Schlichter Bogard fiduciary-breach suits against employers (United Airlines, CHS, Universal Services of America, LabCorp), as a fiduciary-breach suit against a plan sponsor or its fiduciaries, not a benefit-denial suit against an insurer.; 'The first' is read as 'at least one such suit is filed within the window'; the ledger does not verify that none existed before the statement date.; 'Referencing mental health parity violations' = the complaint cites MHPAEA (or 'mental health parity') as a basis of the fiduciary breach.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Dec 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 19 Mar 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Applied as written. H.N. v. Anthem BCBS, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. and the Marsh McLennan Plan (D. Mass. 1:26-cv-11454, complaint docketed 2026-03-26) is brought by a plan beneficiary against the claims administrator and the employer that self-funds the plan. Its Second Cause of Action, 'Violation of MHPAEA (Breach of Fiduciary Duty and Claim for Appropriate Equitable Relief under 29 U.S.C. 1132(a)(3)) (ALL DEFENDANTS)', pleads fiduciary breaches by all defendants based on MHPAEA violations in the plan's administration of mental health benefits, so (a) and (b) are met; it is not a suit only under 502(a)(1)(B) against an | overturned on recheck: An earlier 2026 complaint fits the criterion as applied at least as well as H.N.: M.M. v. Aetna Life Insurance Co., Bank of America Corp., its Corporate Benefits Committee and its Group Benefits Program, W.D.N.C. No. 3:26-cv-00219, filed 20
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
Adversarial recheck

overturned (date): An earlier 2026 complaint fits the criterion as applied at least as well as H.N.: M.M. v. Aetna Life Insurance Co., Bank of America Corp., its Corporate Benefits Committee and its Group Benefits Program, W.D.N.C. No. 3:26-cv-00219, filed 2026-03-19. It names the employer as sponsor of a self-funded plan and the plan committee as administrator, pleads that they 'are fiduciaries of the Plan' (para 13) and 'breached their fiduciary duties' (para 66), and its Second Cause of Action, 'Violation of the MHPAEA (29 U.S.C. 1132(a)(3))', says 'these MHPAEA violations by Defendants are breaches of fiduciary duty' (para 78). H.N. (2026-03-26) instead concedes 'Marsh played no role in the decision' (para 3). Both are single-family benefit suits, not the Schlichter-style class actions in the readings; under that reading neither counts (RECAP shows no such 2026 suit). Under the criterion as written the first-true date moves to 2026-03-19, if in window; an earlier 2026 filing may exist outside RECAP.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Muir promised ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed 2 times; it happened on 19 Mar 2026.

promised datehappened
202520262027202520262027TODAY2024-05-23: by 2026-05-23 · p 0.902026-01-01: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.90HAPPENED 2026-03-19X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0046

Timeline

1 claim against 9 events in the field.

saiddueevent
15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) namedTEXAS HHSC: UTHEALTH HOUSTON-LED IMPACT CONSORTIUM (UTMB, DELL MED, BAYLOR AND OTHERS) NAMED5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattERISA FIDUCIARY L…ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · stated 1 Jan 2026ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%90%TODAY2026

Payer and policy