False · Brier 0.09
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 29 Mar 2024 · owen-0945
Quote
“There are many reasons a trial will fail, and the ar ketamine story is unlikely to be over yet.”
After quoting atai Life Sciences' announcement that PCN-101 (R-ketamine, arketamine, Perception Neuroscience) missed its Phase 2a primary endpoint at 24 hours, the author expects the arketamine development story to continue.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- PCN-101 (arketamine) development is discontinued
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 29 Mar 2026
- Probability
- 0.30 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › D · “unlikely to be over yet”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0021 · deadline none · bin D
Registry entry
The sponsor of PCN-101 (arketamine) announces that clinical development of the program is discontinued.
TRUE on the date of the first definitive public statement by the sponsor of PCN-101 (atai Life Sciences, its subsidiary Perception Neuroscience, or a successor owner or licensee of the asset), in a press release, SEC filing or investor presentation, that development of PCN-101 (arketamine, R-ketamine) is discontinued or terminated, or that the program has been removed from the pipeline with no further development planned. A missed endpoint, a pause pending data, a search for a partner, or a deprioritization that keeps the program under evaluation is not discontinuation. Development that continues under a licensee or new owner of the asset is not discontinuation. Resolution source: atai Life Sciences press releases and SEC filings (EDGAR). FALSE at the deadline when no such discontinuation statement has been made.
Resolution source: atai Life Sciences press releases and SEC filings (EDGAR)
Readings: 'The arketamine story is over' is read as the sponsor discontinuing the PCN-101 (arketamine) program, the only arketamine program in the post. The forecaster says this is unlikely.; The event is written on the asset, so it follows PCN-101 through a rename, a partnership or a sale; continued development by a licensee or new owner keeps the event FALSE.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 29 Mar 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No sponsor statement of discontinuation was found; all 15 EDGAR full-text hits for PCN-101/arketamine since 2024 were reviewed. The FY2024 10-K (2025-03-17) says atai is 'seeking strategic partnership options, for example, with ... Perception Neuroscience' and reports Otsuka's January 2025 notice terminating its Japan arketamine license effective 2025-04-24 (a licensee action, not sponsor discontinuation). The FY2025 10-K (2026-03-06) and Q2 2026 10-Q (2026-08-11) still report direct R&D expenses for PCN-101 and Perception Neuroscience as a 59.2%-owned controlled VIE; PCN-101 is absent from the pipeline text, but no filing or release says development is discontinued or removed with no further development planned. A partner search or deprioritization is not discontinuation under the criterion. Wikipedia's 'previous candidate' label has no sponsor source. Not occurred as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
- AtaiBeckley Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 · 6 Mar 2026
- ATAI Life Sciences N.V. Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 · 17 Mar 2025
- AtaiBeckley Inc. Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 · 11 Aug 2026
- EDGAR full-text search: "PCN-101" OR "arketamine", filings 2024-01-01 to 2026-09-13 (15 hits, all reviewed)
- AtaiBeckley (lists arketamine (PCN-101) among previous candidates, without a sponsor source)
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 29 events in the field.
Trial outcomes