Company and market outcomes

Persons are ranked only when both have 5 or more resolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › events, share a coverage tierHow completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method ›, and their intervalsThe 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of a statistic over many resamples of the clusters with replacement, drawn with a seeded generator so every run gives the same interval. It shows how much the number could move if the events were redrawn. Method › do not overlap; otherwise rows are alphabetical. The evidence tierHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method › sets whether a row shows a score or a count. Comparators are ad hoc collections (tier C): they get a score at the same minimum, but a search-built corpus under-counts claims, so they are never ranked against the full archive. The reference rowsA leaderboard row that is not a person: the base rate or the market, scored with its own probability on the same clusters. Shows what a rule of thumb would have scored. Method › are scored on the same events; the coin flipThe constant 0.25, the Brier score of saying 0.50 on every item. Drawn as a reference line; not a row on the leaderboard. Method › is the score of saying fifty-fifty every time.