True · Brier 0.01
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 8 Sep 2022 · owen-0150
Quote
“Everyone needs to get this treatment who needs to get this treatment when it is available. That is not now. That is soon. We need to be prepared. It is a moral imperative.”
Call to action: SAINT will be available soon (not now); the author says the field must prepare so everyone who needs the treatment gets it.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- SAINT neuromodulation system becomes commercially available in the US
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 8 Sep 2024
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “That is soon”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0008 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
Magnus Medical makes the SAINT neuromodulation system commercially available to patients in the United States.
TRUE on the date of Magnus Medical's definitive public announcement (press release) that the SAINT neuromodulation system is commercially available in the United States, or that the first commercial, non-trial patient has been treated with it at a US clinic. FDA clearance alone, a waitlist or limited-release notice, a research-only installation or a rumor does not count. Resolution source: Magnus Medical press releases. FALSE at the deadline when no such announcement has been made.
Resolution source: Magnus Medical press releases
Readings: 'available' is read as commercial availability to patients outside a trial, not general or wide availability; FDA clearance of SAINT, public at the statement date, does not count as availability
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 8 Sep 2024
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 30 Apr 2024 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Occurred. Magnus Medical's press release dated 2024-04-30 'announced the commercial launch of the SAINT neuromodulation system' for treatment-resistant MDD and named the first customer sites (University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, MUSC Health, Acacia Clinics, Kaizen Brain Center); UAMS is quoted as the first site in the nation to offer SAINT, and the release also reports CMS NTAP approval. This is the sponsor's definitive commercial-availability announcement required by the criterion. Earlier Magnus releases do not qualify: 2022-09-06 FDA clearance (launch 'expected ... later in 2023 on a limited basis'), 2023-05-15 study results, 2023-07-20 first participants treated in the OLO study (trial, not commercial), 2023-10-23 CPT Category III codes. The sponsor's press-release sitemap lists no other release between 2023-10-23 and 2024-04-30.
- Evidence
- Magnus Medical Announces Commercial Launch of Groundbreaking SAINT Neuromodulation System (Burlingame, Calif., April 30, 2024) · 30 Apr 2024
- Magnus Medical Announces Commercial Launch of Groundbreaking SAINT Neuromodulation System (Business Wire release republished) · 30 Apr 2024
- Magnus Medical Receives FDA Clearance for the SAINT Neuromodulation System (states commercial launch expected later in 2023 on a limited basis) · 6 Sep 2022
- Magnus Medical Announces First Participants Treated in Study Using SAINT Neuromodulation System for Major Depression (open-label optimization trial, not commercial use) · 20 Jul 2023
- Magnus Medical press-release sitemap (all 13 press releases; none between 2023-10-23 and 2024-04-30)
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): I looked for an earlier Magnus announcement of commercial availability or of a first commercial patient. The Business Wire list of Magnus releases and the company's own release index show nothing between the 2023-10-23 CPT-code release, which only anticipates hospital claims once the codes take effect on 2024-07-01, and the 2024-04-30 'Commercial Launch' release that names the first customer sites. CMS's FY 2024 IPPS final rule records the applicant telling CMS that SAINT 'will be commercially available on April 15, 2024', and UAMS's 'first in the nation to offer' release is dated 2024-06-11; neither is a Magnus press release, the only source the criterion accepts. FDA clearance (2022-09-06) and the OLO trial (2023-07-20) are excluded. Occurred on 2024-04-30 stands.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 53 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes