Pending · due 31 Dec 2026
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 Jan 2026 · owen-2033
Quote
“At least two pandemic-era mental-health companies will publicly cease operations— I’m looking at you, fictional DeathStance Health .”
Item 11 of the 2026 predictions list: at least two pandemic-era mental health companies publicly shut down in 2026. 'DeathStance Health' is a fictional stand-in name.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- At least two pandemic-era mental-health companies cease operations
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “2026 (annual predictions list dated 1 January 2026)”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0055 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin A
Registry entry
At least two pandemic-era (founded or grown during the COVID-19 pandemic) mental-health companies publicly announce that they are ceasing operations.
TRUE on the date of the second definitive public announcement after the statement date that a distinct pandemic-era mental-health company is ceasing operations: a company statement or press release, an SEC filing, a Chapter 7 or dissolution filing, or a closure notice to patients or customers. 'Pandemic-era mental-health company' = a company whose main business is mental-health care or software (telehealth psychiatry or therapy, apps, clinics, benefits platforms), founded or launched in that business between March 2020 and December 2022. A layoff, a pivot, an acquisition that keeps the service running, a Chapter 11 filing with continued operations, or a rumor does not count. FALSE at the deadline when fewer than two such shutdowns have been announced by then. Resolution source: company press releases and statements; SEC EDGAR and bankruptcy dockets as secondary sources.
Resolution source: Company press releases and public statements; SEC EDGAR filings and bankruptcy dockets as secondary sources
Readings: Threshold 2 ('at least two'). 'DeathStance Health' is fictional and not an entity.; 'pandemic-era' = founded or launched in 2020 to 2022.; 'publicly cease operations' = a definitive public shutdown or liquidation announcement; the fictional company named is not a candidate.
How to read
Coder C
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Shutdown announcements since 2026-01-01 were checked against the definition (main business mental-health care or software; founded or launched March 2020 to December 2022; definitive shutdown). None qualifies. Kintsugi (voice-biomarker depression screening) announced the end of commercial operations on 2026-02-09 but was founded in 2018. Stokes Counseling (Connecticut outpatient provider) closed on 2026-05-10 but had operated since 2011. PsychPlus affiliate P Health filed Chapter 11 on 2026-05-08 with continued operations; PsychPlus was founded in 2019. Yara AI shut its chatbot in November 2025 and launched in 2024. Other 2026 closures found (ABA autism providers, a Michigan therapy center, a Canadian harm-reduction nonprofit) are not pandemic-era mental-health companies. Fewer than two qualifying shutdowns as of 2026-09-13. Statement date not shown; the checks cover all of 2026.
- Evidence
- Mental Health Voice Biomarker Kintsugi Closes, Makes All Technology and Research Public · 11 Feb 2026
- Outpatient Mental Health Provider Stokes Counseling Closes · 14 May 2026
- Mental Health Provider PsychPlus Files for Bankruptcy · 12 May 2026
- Google News search feed: mental health startup shutdowns, past year
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 16 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes