Pending · due 31 Dec 2026
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 Jan 2026 · owen-2026
Quote
“Top-lines from Sanmai, Brainsonix, and other tFUS companies are likely to make news too.”
Item 4 of the 2026 predictions list, continued: top-line results from transcranial focused ultrasound companies Sanmai, Brainsonix and others will make news in 2026.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Sanmai transcranial focused ultrasound trial reports topline results
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “2026 predictions list ('Ten 2026 Predictions on Which to Hang Your Hat.', published 1 January 2026)”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “are likely to make news too”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0052 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin B
Registry entry
Sanmai, or the investigators of a clinical trial of Sanmai's transcranial focused ultrasound therapy, publicly report topline (primary-outcome) results of that trial, in any direction.
TRUE on the date of the first sponsor topline press release, ClinicalTrials.gov results posting or peer-reviewed publication, dated after 2026-01-01, that reports primary-outcome results (positive, negative or mixed) of a clinical trial of a Sanmai transcranial focused ultrasound treatment in human participants. Trial-start or enrollment announcements, preclinical or healthy-volunteer mechanistic data without a clinical primary outcome, conference teasers without primary-outcome results, and results already public on the statement date do not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such report is dated by then. Resolution source: Sanmai press releases, with ClinicalTrials.gov results and PubMed as secondary sources.
Resolution source: Sanmai press releases (company newsroom); ClinicalTrials.gov results and PubMed as secondary sources
Readings: 'Top-lines' = topline (primary-outcome) results of a clinical trial; the forecaster asserts no direction, so a positive, negative or mixed result all count.; 'Make news' is read as the public release of the results; press coverage is not required.; 'Sanmai, Brainsonix, and other tFUS companies' is 'A and B': Brainsonix is coded at owen-2026-b; 'other tFUS companies' is an uncountable set and is not coded.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Checked the Sanmai newsroom, ClinicalTrials.gov and PubMed on 2026-09-13. ClinicalTrials.gov lists two Sanmai-sponsored studies: NCT06169631 (anxiety, status unknown, no results posted) and NCT07207122 (Parkinson disease tFUS pilot, recruiting, primary completion December 2026, last updated 2026-07-31, no results posted). The Sanmai news page has no item after June 2025 and no topline announcement. PubMed returns no Sanmai-sponsored trial result. The only 2026 tFUS paper found (Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science, 2026-04-10, Virginia Tech, 40 healthy volunteers, Focused Ultrasound Foundation funded) is not a Sanmai trial and is healthy-volunteer mechanistic work, which the criterion excludes. No topline (primary-outcome) report of a Sanmai tFUS trial dated after 2026-01-01 exists as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 11 events in the field.
Trial outcomes