Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 10 Apr 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 10 Apr 2023 · owen-0420

Quote

“Neuromodulation (especially accelerated TMS) will be a first-line treatment for depression in 5 years.”
· Predictions About The Future · substack post Paid

Item 1 of 16 in the post 'Predictions About The Future' (2023-04-10), a bullet list the author introduces as 'A few outlandish predictions, so I can be on record in the future when anyone checks'. Claim: neuromodulation, especially accelerated TMS protocols, becomes a first-line depression treatment within 5 years (about 2028).

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
10 Apr 2028 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “in 5 years”
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0013 · deadline 10 Apr 2028 · bin A
Registry entry

The American Psychiatric Association issues a practice guideline for major depressive disorder that lists TMS (including accelerated protocols) as a first-line treatment option.

TRUE on the publication date of an American Psychiatric Association practice guideline, or guideline update, for major depressive disorder that recommends TMS (any protocol, including accelerated protocols) or another non-ECT neuromodulation modality as a first-line treatment option, that is, as an initial treatment not conditioned on prior antidepressant failure. A draft for comment, a payer policy, or a recommendation limited to treatment-resistant depression is not adoption. Resolution source: the APA Practice Guidelines (psychiatryonline.org). FALSE at the deadline when no such APA guideline has been published.

Resolution source: American Psychiatric Association Practice Guidelines (psychiatryonline.org)

Readings: 'Neuromodulation (especially accelerated TMS)' resolves on TMS; another non-ECT neuromodulation modality listed as first-line for MDD also counts.; ECT does not count: its existing role in severe or psychotic depression is not the change the claim describes.; 'First-line treatment for depression' means the guideline lists the modality as an initial treatment option for MDD without requiring prior antidepressant failure; a listing only for treatment-resistant depression does not count.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
10 Apr 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Criterion: publication of an APA practice guideline or update for MDD that recommends TMS or another non-ECT neuromodulation modality as a first-line (initial, not conditioned on antidepressant failure) treatment. Checked 2026-09-13: the APA Clinical Practice Guidelines page lists as current guidelines Delirium (2025), Borderline Personality Disorder (2025), Eating Disorders (2023), Schizophrenia (2020), Alcohol Use Disorder (2018), antipsychotics in dementia (2016) and Psychiatric Evaluation of Adults (2015). Major Depressive Disorder appears only under Legacy Practice Guidelines as the 2010 edition, with no update or new edition listed. With no new APA MDD guideline, a first-line TMS listing has not occurred. The page also links third-party MDD guidelines (VA/DoD 2022, ACP 2023); these are not APA guidelines. psychiatryonline.org could not be opened (bot check).
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
A DEPRESSION PRAC…A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · stated 10 Apr 2023A depression practice guideline lists TMS as a first-line treatment · restated 10 Apr 2023 · p 90%90%TODAY20242025202620272028

Practice adoption

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