Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 31 Dec 2026

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 Jan 2026 · owen-2030

Quote

“A ntidepressant prescriptions will drop (globally) for the first time in 2026. This is an ambitious prediction, but I think the zeitgeist and the data are both against these small-molecule drugs.”
· Ten 2026 Predictions on Which to Hang Your Hat. · substack post

Item 8 of the 2026 predictions list: global antidepressant prescriptions fall for the first time in 2026.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “in 2026”
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will drop (globally) for the first time in 2026”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0049 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin A
Registry entry

Global antidepressant prescription volume for calendar year 2026 is below the volume for calendar year 2025, per IQVIA's global data.

Resolved on IQVIA global antidepressant volume data only (IQVIA MIDAS, as published by IQVIA or the IQVIA Institute in its global medicine-use reports). TRUE if the published global antidepressant volume for calendar year 2026 (prescriptions, or the report's standard-unit or defined-daily-dose measure for antidepressants, ATC N06A) is lower than the published figure for calendar year 2025 in the same series and unit; FALSE if it is equal or higher. A direction resolves as binary at the prior-year value. Regional or single-country series do not count. If the series has not published both years' values 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable.

Resolution source: IQVIA global antidepressant volume (IQVIA MIDAS), as published by IQVIA or the IQVIA Institute

Readings: 'Antidepressant prescriptions' is read as dispensed antidepressant volume in the unit the series publishes.; 'Globally' = the worldwide total, so only a global series resolves the event.; 'For the first time' is historical framing and is not scored; the direction is judged against 2025 only.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Dec 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Quantity event: calendar-2026 versus calendar-2025 global antidepressant (ATC N06A) volume in the IQVIA MIDAS series. The period (CY2026) has not ended and IQVIA has published no CY2026 volume. The IQVIA Institute latest global report, Global Medicine Use Trends 2026 (published 2026-02-11), carries actual data only through 2025, and the Institute 2026 report list shows no antidepressant-specific global volume release. The proposition therefore had not become true as of 2026-09-13. The unresolvable clause (both years unpublished 12 months after the deadline) does not yet apply. realized_value is null because the CY2026 figure does not exist yet. Re-check after the 2027 edition of the global medicine-use report.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
GLOBAL ANTIDEPRES…Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025 · stated 1 Jan 2026Global antidepressant prescription volume falls in 2026 versus 2025 · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%90%TODAY2026

Practice adoption

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