Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

True · Brier 0.01

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 6 Sep 2023 · owen-0700

Quote

“This treatment is available in the outpatient setting through the open label dose optimization study offered by Magnus Medical, and soon, in hospital settings under the new technology add-on payment program.”
· The Best Treatment for Depression in Under One Minute · substack video

77-word video post 'The Best Treatment for Depression in Under One Minute' about the fMRI-guided TMS protocol (presumably SAINT, Magnus Medical's product). The author says the treatment is available now outpatient through a Magnus Medical open-label dose-optimization study and will soon be available in hospital settings under the new technology add-on payment (NTAP) program. He adds that he started a company to help hospitals get it.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 6 Sep 2025
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “and soon, in hospital settings”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0017 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

SAINT (fMRI-guided accelerated iTBS) is offered to patients in at least one US hospital setting, as announced by Magnus Medical or the hospital.

TRUE on the date of the definitive public announcement (Magnus Medical press release or the hospital's own public announcement) that SAINT is available to patients in a US hospital setting (inpatient or hospital outpatient department), or that a first patient has been treated with SAINT at a US hospital. Availability only through a Magnus Medical research or open-label study at non-hospital clinics, a hospital's stated intention or agreement to install without patient availability, and any CMS payment decision by itself do not count. Resolution source: Magnus Medical press releases, with the adopting hospital's public announcement as a secondary source. FALSE at the deadline when no such announcement has been made.

Resolution source: Magnus Medical press releases; adopting hospital's public announcement as a secondary source

Readings: 'available in hospital settings' = at least one US hospital offers SAINT to patients (inpatient or hospital outpatient department); one hospital suffices.; 'under the new technology add-on payment program' is the payment route the forecaster names, not a separate forecast of a CMS decision; the item does not resolve on any CMS action, so the sentence is one event, not an 'A and B' split.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
True
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
6 Sep 2025
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 11 Jun 2024 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
First definitive announcement: UAMS news release of 2024-06-11 says UAMS is 'the first medical facility in the United States to provide' SAINT and that 'currently, SAINT can only be provided to patients who are being treated as inpatients'. That is the hospital's own announcement of patient availability in a hospital inpatient setting: TRUE on 2024-06-11. The Magnus launch release of 2024-04-30 named UAMS and MUSC Health as first customer sites and quoted UAMS as 'first site in the nation to offer' SAINT, but stated no patient availability or treated patient ('will work ... to implement'), so it was not treated as definitive; a rechecker could argue for 2024-04-30. Corroboration: Magnus 2024-11-12 (MUSC Health quoted; hospital outpatient payment from 2025-01-01), MUSC 2026-04-14 (first hospital system to offer SAINT in 2024), Magnus 2026-05-05. CMS payment decisions were not used.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
0.01 = (0.90 − 1)²
Adversarial recheck

upheld (date): Attacked the date both ways. Earlier: Magnus's 2024-04-30 launch release names UAMS and MUSC Health as 'first customer sites' and quotes UAMS as 'first site in the nation to offer' SAINT, but the teams 'will implement' it and no patient availability or treated patient is stated: an agreement to install, which the criterion excludes. MUSC in fact treated patients first: its article of 2024-08-09 (musc.edu) says MUSC was 'the first hospital system in the country to actually perform the SAINT method for patients in May' 2024; the Post and Courier (2024-08-19) agrees. But the criterion keys on the announcement date, and MUSC's first public announcement came 2024-08-09, after the UAMS release of 2024-06-11, which states SAINT 'can only be provided to patients who are being treated as inpatients'. No hospital or Magnus announcement of patient availability between 2024-04-30 and 2024-06-11 was found. 2024-06-11 stands; UAMS's 'first' claim is wrong in fact but not in date.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
SAINT NEUROMODULA…SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · stated 6 Sep 2023SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · restated 6 Sep 2023 · p 90%SAINT neuromodulation becomes available to patients in a US hospital setting · hit 11 Jun 202490%TODAY202420252026

Practice adoption

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