Pending · due 25 Feb 2028
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 25 Feb 2026 · owen-2099
Quote
“There is now a named trial — the Kale Award trial — specifically designed to address whether bilateral stimulation is superior to unilateral for suicidal ideation. It’s years out from results.”
Right-sided stimulation and suicidality section. The author notes a named trial (Kale Award trial) that tests bilateral versus unilateral TMS for suicidal ideation and states its results are years away.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Kale Award trial (bilateral versus unilateral TMS for suicidal ideation) reports its primary result
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 25 Feb 2028
- Probability
- 0.10 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “It's years out from results” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- denial, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0060 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
The Kale Award trial reports its primary comparison of bilateral versus unilateral stimulation for suicidal ideation (either direction).
TRUE on the date of the first public report of the Kale Award trial's primary outcome result: the peer-reviewed primary results publication, the investigators' topline release, or a results posting in the trial's registry entry, whichever is first. The result may favour bilateral, unilateral or neither; the event is about a primary result being reported. A protocol publication, a recruitment update, an interim safety report or a conference abstract without the primary outcome estimate does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such report is dated by then. Resolution source: the peer-reviewed primary results publication (PubMed), with the trial registry entry as the secondary source.
Resolution source: Kale Award trial primary results publication (PubMed); trial registry entry as secondary source
Readings: The trial is identified only by the author's words: 'the Kale Award trial', designed to test whether bilateral stimulation is superior to unilateral for suicidal ideation, discussed in Paul Fitzgerald's Brain Stimulation 2025 session. No registry number or sponsor is given, so none is written.; The claim is about timing, so the event resolves on the first public report of the primary outcome in either direction, not on which arm wins.; 'It's years out from results' is read as a denial that a primary result is reported within the undated 24-month window from the statement date (2026-02-25 to 2028-02-25). A coder who reads the sentence as relayed session information would reject as REPORT or NOT_FORECAST.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 25 Feb 2028
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The trial is identified as COMBAT-SI (NCT05377177, UC San Diego, PI Cory Weissman): the only registered randomized comparison of bilateral versus unilateral (accelerated theta burst) stimulation for suicidal ideation, funded by NIMH career-development award K23MH138746, a 'K award', which matches the forecaster's 'Kale Award'. As of 2026-09-13 the registry shows status Recruiting, no results posted, estimated primary completion 2029-08-01; PubMed has no publication of its primary outcome, and no other bilateral-vs-unilateral suicidal-ideation RCT has reported. Not occurred as of the check date. The link to Paul Fitzgerald's Brain Stimulation 2025 session could not be verified; if the forecaster meant another trial, the identification can be challenged.
- Evidence
- Cortical Inhibition as a Biomarker of Response in a Comparison of Bilateral Versus Unilateral Accelerated Theta Burst Stimulation for Suicidal Ideation in Treatment-Resistant Depression (COMBAT-SI), NCT05377177: Recruiting, no results posted, primary completion 2029-08-01 · 5 Nov 2025
- NIH RePORTER project K23MH138746 (COMBAT-SI), PI Cory R. Weissman, UC San Diego, NIMH career development award 2024-09-01 to 2029-08-31 · 28 Aug 2026
- PubMed search: bilateral AND unilateral AND theta burst AND suicidal ideation AND randomized (no results publication)
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 10 events in the field.
Trial outcomes