Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Known true · enters 15 Jan 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 15 Jan 2026 · owen-2057

Quote

“I’m looking forward to new data on large scale replication trials that should be published soon.”
· FDA-Approved Breakthrough! Neurolief Brings ProLivᵀᴹ Rx to the World! · substack post

Glossary entry for eTNS (Monarch eTNS device, FDA-cleared breakthrough device for refractory seizures and ADHD in youth). The author expects large-scale replication trial data to be published soon.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Monarch eTNS large-scale replication trial results are published
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Trial outcomes
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 15 Jan 2028
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “should be published soon”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0057 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry

Results of a randomized controlled replication trial of the Monarch eTNS device, larger than the trial behind its existing FDA clearance, are published, in any direction.

TRUE on the date of the first peer-reviewed publication (PubMed-indexed) or ClinicalTrials.gov results posting, dated after 2026-01-15, that reports primary-outcome results of a randomized controlled trial of the Monarch eTNS (external trigeminal nerve stimulation) device in one of the indications the forecaster names as cleared (ADHD in youth, or refractory seizures), designed to test the efficacy finding of the trial that supported the existing FDA clearance, and randomizing more participants than that pivotal trial. Any direction of result counts. Secondary analyses of earlier trials, open-label studies, and results already public on the statement date do not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such publication or posting is dated by then. Resolution source: PubMed (peer-reviewed publication), with ClinicalTrials.gov results as a secondary source.

Resolution source: PubMed (peer-reviewed publication); ClinicalTrials.gov results as a secondary source

Readings: 'Large scale replication trials' is read as randomized controlled trials that test the efficacy finding behind the current clearance and randomize more participants than that pivotal trial; the forecaster gives no number, so size is judged against the pivotal trial.; 'New data ... published' is read as a peer-reviewed publication or a results posting, in any direction.; 'Soon' sets no deadline.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
15 Jan 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 16 Jan 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Criterion: first PubMed-indexed publication or ClinicalTrials.gov posting dated after 2026-01-15 reporting primary results of an RCT of the Monarch eTNS in youth ADHD (or refractory seizures), designed to test the efficacy finding behind the FDA clearance and randomizing more participants than the pivotal trial (McGough 2019, NCT02155608, 62 randomized). Conti et al., Nature Medicine 32(2):582-590, published online 2026-01-16 (PubMed Epub 2026 Jan 16, PMID 41545587): multicentre double-blind sham-controlled phase 2b ATTENS trial (ISRCTN82129325) of the Monarch TNS System (NeuroSigma), 150 randomized (75/75), explicitly a confirmatory test of the pilot; primary outcome (parent ADHD-RS at 4 weeks) showed no differential effect (adjusted mean difference 0.83, P=0.622). Direction is irrelevant. No earlier registry results posting exists (UCLA NCT05374187, n=218, has none). Date = 2026-01-16.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
Adversarial recheck

upheld (date): Argued the date is wrong or the trial does not qualify. Three attacks failed. (1) Device: the PMC full text names the Monarch TNS System (NeuroSigma), the cleared device. (2) Size and design: ATTENS randomized 150 (75/75) against 62 in McGough 2019 (NCT02155608), the trial behind the April 2019 FDA clearance, and is described as a confirmatory replication, so it meets 'larger' and 'designed to test'. (3) Date: the window edge is tight, because the criterion needs a date after 2026-01-15 and the paper is Epub 2026-01-16. The Nature Medicine DOI carries a 2025 stem (s41591-025-04075-x), so I checked for an earlier online date; PubMed, PMC and Nature all give 16 January 2026, print Feb 2026;32(2):582-590. Nothing qualifying falls in the one-day gap, and UCLA NCT05374187 (n=218) has posted no results. The null primary result does not matter, because any direction counts.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 11 events in the field.

saiddueevent
17 Feb 2026 · Compass Pathways (COMP360, COMP006): Second phase 3 COMP006 meets primary endpoint: two 25 mg COMP360 doses 3 weeks a5 Mar 2026 · Helus Pharma (HLP004 / CYB004, GAD): Helus reports phase 2 signal-detection results for deuterated DMT HLP004 in mode1 Apr 2026 · Alto Neuroscience (ALTO-101): Alto's phase 2 proof-of-concept of ALTO-101 in cognitive impairment associated w8 Apr 2026 · AtaiBeckley (BPL-003): AtaiBeckley publishes phase 2a data of BPL-003 in TRD patients on SSRIs (CNS Dru26 May 2026 · US Department of Veterans Affairs: VA launches its MDMA-assisted therapy trial for veterans with PTSD and alcohol u15 Jun 2026 · Neumora Therapeutics (navacaprant, KOASTAL-2/3): KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 both miss; Neumora discontinues navacaprant after three 22 Jun 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120 / MM120, Emerge): Phase 3 Emerge of single-dose DT120 (LSD) ODT 100 µg in MDD meets its primary en7 Jul 2026 · Compass Pathways (COMP360, COMP006): COMP006 26-week (Part B) data show benefit of two 25 mg doses maintained on aver21 Jul 2026 · Helus Pharma (HLP003 / CYB003, APPROACH): Helus completes enrollment in the phase 3 APPROACH study of HLP003 as adjunctive12 Aug 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120 / MM120, Voyage): Phase 3 Voyage of DT120 ODT 100 µg in GAD meets its primary HAM-A endpoint at we9 Sep 2026 · Compass Pathways (COMP360, COMP005 Part C): Compass reports 52-week open-label COMP005 data: participants who received an adCOMPASS PATHWAYS (COMP360, COMP005 PART C): COMPASS REPORTS 52-WEEK OPEN-LABEL COMP005 DATA: PARTICIPANTS WHO RECEIVED AN ADMONARCH ETNS LARG…Monarch eTNS large-scale replication trial results are published · stated 15 Jan 2026Monarch eTNS large-scale replication trial results are published · restated 15 Jan 2026 · p 70%70%TODAY20272028

Trial outcomes

← Earlier · Later → · All statements