False · Brier 0.01
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 9 Aug 2022 · owen-0121
Quote
“Venture capital can disrupt a lot of things, but the fundamental rules around DEA licensure are not going to go down without a drawn out fight.”
Prediction that the DEA licensure rules (physical office requirement for controlled-substance prescribers) will persist; any change will need a drawn-out fight despite venture capital pressure.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- DEA per-state physical-location registration requirement for controlled-substance prescribing is rescinded
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 9 Aug 2024
- Probability
- 0.10 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “are not going to go down without a drawn out fight” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- denial, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › (Vague or promotional) · event new · deadline none · bin –
Registry entry
The DEA adopts a final rule that lets a practitioner prescribe controlled substances to patients located in a state outside the states where the practitioner holds a registration at a physical location.
TRUE on the Federal Register publication date of a DEA final rule (or the effective date of an enacted statute that the DEA implements) that permits a practitioner to prescribe controlled substances to patients located in a state where the practitioner holds no DEA registration at a physical location, on a non-emergency basis. A proposed rule, a temporary emergency exception, or the extension of an emergency exception is not adoption. Resolution source: the Federal Register. FALSE at the deadline when no such final rule has been published in the Federal Register.
Resolution source: Federal Register
Readings: 'the fundamental rules around DEA licensure' read as the per-state physical-office registration requirement the post describes; 'Not going to go down without a drawn out fight' is read as no removal within the undated 24-month window.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 9 Aug 2024
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Not occurred as of 2026-09-13. No DEA final rule published in the Federal Register lets a practitioner prescribe controlled substances to patients in a state where the practitioner holds no registration at a physical location. The Federal Register API (DEA, type Rule, term telemedicine) lists 13 documents, newest 2026-06-09; the only telemedicine rules since 2023 are four temporary extensions of the COVID-19 flexibilities (latest 2025-12-31, in force through 2026-12-31), excluded by the criterion as emergency exceptions, and the January 2025 buprenorphine and VA rules, which do not change per-state registration. The 'Special Registrations for Telemedicine and Limited State Telemedicine Registrations' rule is still a proposed rule (2025-01-17); it entered OIRA review on 2026-08-25 with final action expected in November 2026. No enacted statute found (TREATS Act still a bill).
- Evidence
- Federal Register API: DEA documents of type Rule matching 'telemedicine' (13 documents, newest 2026-06-09; no special-registration final rule)
- Fourth Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications (90 FR 61301; effective 2026-01-01 through 2026-12-31) · 31 Dec 2025
- Special Registrations for Telemedicine and Limited State Telemedicine Registrations (proposed rule) · 17 Jan 2025
- DEA Prescribing of Controlled Substances (status tracker: final special registration rule under OMB/OIRA review since 2026-08-25, release expected November 2026)
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions