Pending · due 16 Aug 2028
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 16 Aug 2026 · owen-2326
Quote
“and none of them will go through a retail pharmacy.”
Same sentence as the monitoring claim: the pipeline psychedelics behind Spravato (psilocybin, LSD, MDMA) will not be dispensed through retail pharmacies; treatments are in-clinic by design.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 16 Aug 2028
- Probability
- 0.10 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “none of them will go through a retail pharmacy” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- denial, conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0067 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
The FDA approves a psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product whose approved labeling or REMS permits a retail pharmacy to dispense it to the patient for use outside a healthcare setting.
Resolved on Drugs@FDA (approval letters and approved labeling) read with the FDA REMS database (REMS@FDA). For each drug product whose active ingredient is psilocybin, LSD (lysergide, any salt) or MDMA (midomafetamine, any salt) that the FDA approves between the statement date and the deadline, check the approved labeling and any REMS in force on the approval date. TRUE on the approval date of the first such product whose labeling or REMS permits a retail or community pharmacy to dispense it to the patient or caregiver for use outside a healthcare setting. FALSE at the deadline if at least one such product has been approved and every such approval restricts dispensing to certified healthcare settings or requires administration under healthcare-provider supervision in a healthcare setting. If no such product is approved in the window, the condition is unmet and the item is void.
Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approval letters and labeling) with the FDA REMS database (REMS@FDA)
Readings: 'Go through a retail pharmacy' reads as the FDA-approved labeling or REMS permitting a retail or community pharmacy to dispense the product to the patient for use outside a healthcare setting.; A product restricted to certified healthcare settings, or whose label requires administration under healthcare-provider supervision in a healthcare setting (the Spravato model the author uses as the reference), does not go through a retail pharmacy.; 'Them' and 'these drugs' = drug products whose active ingredient is psilocybin, LSD (lysergide) or MDMA (midomafetamine), in any salt or formulation the sponsor names as such. 'None of them' denies the disjunction, so one event covers all three ('A or B' is one event).; Denial: the forecaster asserts that the proposition is false. The claim presupposes at least one approval; if none occurs in the window, the condition is unmet and the item is void rather than scored as a correct denial.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 16 Aug 2028
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Criterion: for each psilocybin, LSD or MDMA product approved in the window, read the approved labeling and any REMS; TRUE on the first approval that permits a retail or community pharmacy to dispense for use outside a healthcare setting. As of 2026-09-13 no such product is approved: Drugs@FDA searches for psilocybin, midomafetamine and lysergide return no results, FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 (current 2026-09-11) lists none, and REMS@FDA has no REMS for such a product. There is no approved labeling or REMS to read, so the proposition is not true as of checked_through. Pending: Compass COMP360 rolling NDA (final modules Q4 2026) and Resilient's midomafetamine NDA resubmitted August 2026. Scoring note: the criterion voids the item (condition unmet) if no such product is approved by the deadline; this outcome records only the state as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
- Drugs@FDA: FDA-Approved Drugs - basic searches for 'psilocybin', 'midomafetamine' and 'lysergide' each returned 'Your Drugs@FDA Search Did Not Return Any Results'
- Novel Drug Approvals for 2026 (39 entries, none with a psilocybin, lysergide, midomafetamine or other psychedelic active ingredient) · 11 Sep 2026
- Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) - no REMS for a psilocybin, lysergide or midomafetamine product
- Drugs@FDA: Drug Approval Reports by Month - All Approvals and Tentative Approvals, September 2026 (no psilocybin, lysergide or midomafetamine product)
- Compass Pathways Announces Second Quarter and First Half 2026 Financial Results and Business Highlights (Form 8-K exhibit): COMP360 rolling NDA, final modules expected Q4 2026 · 5 Aug 2026
- MAPS Responds to Report of Progress for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD with FDA (Resilient Pharmaceuticals has resubmitted the midomafetamine NDA) · 10 Aug 2026
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Muir promised Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing 3 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0067
Timeline
1 claim against 2 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions