Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

True · Brier 0.01

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“I imagine we're going to have lawsuits for mental health parity violations”
· Owen Muir-Centric Updates! · substack post

Discussion of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021 and the ERISA fiduciary duty of employers. The author notes that several lawsuits by employees against employer groups already exist, as he argued they would, and then predicts lawsuits for mental health parity violations, which he says is also part of the law thanks to the (Affordable) Care Act.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 23 May 2026
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “I imagine we're going to have lawsuits for mental health parity violations”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0046 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

A lawsuit is filed in a US federal court that pleads an ERISA breach-of-fiduciary-duty claim against the sponsor or fiduciaries of an employer group health plan and cites violations of the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act as a basis for the breach.

TRUE on the docket date of a complaint filed in a US federal district court within the window that (a) pleads a claim under ERISA for breach of fiduciary duty against the sponsor, plan committee or other named fiduciaries of an employer-sponsored group health plan over the plan's design or administration, whether brought by plan participants or by the Department of Labor, and (b) cites the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act (MHPAEA, 'mental health parity') as a basis of the alleged breach, as shown by the complaint text. A suit only for denied benefits under ERISA section 502(a)(1)(B) against an insurer or administrator, a state-court suit, or an amended complaint in a case filed before the window does not count. Legal press reports are a finding aid only. FALSE when no such complaint has been filed by the deadline.

Resolution source: Federal court dockets (CourtListener / PACER)

Readings: 'ERISA lawsuit' is read, from the post's discussion of the Schlichter Bogard fiduciary-breach suits against employers (United Airlines, CHS, Universal Services of America, LabCorp), as a fiduciary-breach suit against a plan sponsor or its fiduciaries, not a benefit-denial suit against an insurer.; 'The first' is read as 'at least one such suit is filed within the window'; the ledger does not verify that none existed before the statement date.; 'Referencing mental health parity violations' = the complaint cites MHPAEA (or 'mental health parity') as a basis of the fiduciary breach.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
True
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
23 May 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 19 Mar 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Applied as written. H.N. v. Anthem BCBS, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. and the Marsh McLennan Plan (D. Mass. 1:26-cv-11454, complaint docketed 2026-03-26) is brought by a plan beneficiary against the claims administrator and the employer that self-funds the plan. Its Second Cause of Action, 'Violation of MHPAEA (Breach of Fiduciary Duty and Claim for Appropriate Equitable Relief under 29 U.S.C. 1132(a)(3)) (ALL DEFENDANTS)', pleads fiduciary breaches by all defendants based on MHPAEA violations in the plan's administration of mental health benefits, so (a) and (b) are met; it is not a suit only under 502(a)(1)(B) against an | overturned on recheck: An earlier 2026 complaint fits the criterion as applied at least as well as H.N.: M.M. v. Aetna Life Insurance Co., Bank of America Corp., its Corporate Benefits Committee and its Group Benefits Program, W.D.N.C. No. 3:26-cv-00219, filed 20
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
0.01 = (0.90 − 1)²
Adversarial recheck

overturned (date): An earlier 2026 complaint fits the criterion as applied at least as well as H.N.: M.M. v. Aetna Life Insurance Co., Bank of America Corp., its Corporate Benefits Committee and its Group Benefits Program, W.D.N.C. No. 3:26-cv-00219, filed 2026-03-19. It names the employer as sponsor of a self-funded plan and the plan committee as administrator, pleads that they 'are fiduciaries of the Plan' (para 13) and 'breached their fiduciary duties' (para 66), and its Second Cause of Action, 'Violation of the MHPAEA (29 U.S.C. 1132(a)(3))', says 'these MHPAEA violations by Defendants are breaches of fiduciary duty' (para 78). H.N. (2026-03-26) instead concedes 'Marsh played no role in the decision' (para 3). Both are single-family benefit suits, not the Schlichter-style class actions in the readings; under that reading neither counts (RECAP shows no such 2026 suit). Under the criterion as written the first-true date moves to 2026-03-19, if in window; an earlier 2026 filing may exist outside RECAP.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Muir promised ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed 2 times; it happened on 19 Mar 2026.

promised datehappened
202520262027202520262027TODAY2024-05-23: by 2026-05-23 · p 0.902026-01-01: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.90HAPPENED 2026-03-19X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0046

Timeline

1 claim against 22 events in the field.

saiddueevent
27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net healICER: ICER FINAL REPORT: PANEL VOTES 14-1 THAT EVIDENCE IS INADEQUATE TO SHOW NET HEAL23 Sep 2024 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: MHPAEA final rule published (released September 9): NQTL comparative-analysis an3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattERISA FIDUCIARY L…ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · stated 23 May 2024ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · restated 23 May 2024 · p 90%ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · hit 19 Mar 202690%TODAY20252026

Payer and policy