Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 10 May 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 10 May 2026 · owen-2232

Quote

“But the executive order, which may soon open a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States, arrived one day too late to have offered him that hope.”
· Ibogaine: The Right to Try, and the Right to Hope · substack post

Op-ed co-authored by Owen Muir and Robert Glatter, M.D. about the April 18, 2026 presidential executive order 'Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness', which directs FDA and DEA to build a Right to Try pathway for investigational psychedelics including ibogaine. Hedged forecast that the order may soon open a legal US pathway to ibogaine treatment, told around a patient's suicide attempt.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
FDA or DEA opens a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 10 May 2028
Probability
0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “may soon open a legal pathway”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0061 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry

The FDA or the DEA issues a final rule, guidance, order or program that permits patients in the United States to receive ibogaine treatment lawfully outside a registered clinical trial.

TRUE on the publication date, in the Federal Register or on the FDA or DEA site, of a final rule, final guidance, order, scheduling action or operational program from the FDA or the DEA under which a patient in the United States may lawfully receive ibogaine treatment outside a registered clinical trial (for example a Right to Try pathway as directed by the 18 April 2026 executive order). A proposed rule, draft guidance, request for comment, statement of intent or the executive order itself is not the pathway. A state law or a foreign program does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such final action has been published by then. Resolution source: the Federal Register (FDA and DEA documents), with FDA and DEA announcements as secondary sources.

Resolution source: Federal Register (FDA and DEA documents); FDA and DEA announcements as secondary sources

Readings: 'open a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States' = a final FDA or DEA action that makes lawful ibogaine treatment available to US patients outside a registered clinical trial; either agency counts ('A or B' is one event).; The executive order directs FDA and DEA to build a Right to Try pathway for investigational psychedelics including ibogaine (the authors' own context); a pathway covering investigational psychedelics generally counts if ibogaine is included.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
10 May 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No final FDA or DEA rule, guidance, order or program permitting ibogaine treatment outside a registered trial had been published by 2026-09-13. Federal Register searches for 'ibogaine', 'right to try' and 'psychedelic' since EO 14401 (signed 2026-04-18, published 2026-04-22) return only routine DEA manufacturer/importer registration notices, an FDA information-collection notice on Right to Try annual summaries, FDA's final guidance on psychedelic clinical investigations (2026-07-14) and a notice of a 2026-09-14 public hearing on future therapeutic use of psychedelics; none opens an access pathway. FDA's Right to Try page was last updated 2024-12-12 and FDA press announcements through 2026-09-04 include nothing on the pathway. The executive order itself is excluded by the criterion.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 11 events in the field.

saiddueevent
23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; tDEA: DEA SENDS ITS FINAL TELEMEDICINE SPECIAL REGISTRATION RULE TO OIRA FOR REVIEW; T8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follFDA OR DEA OPENS…FDA or DEA opens a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States · stated 10 May 2026FDA or DEA opens a legal pathway to ibogaine treatment in the United States · restated 10 May 2026 · p 50%50%TODAY20272028

Regulatory decisions

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