True · Brier 0.09
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 May 2023 · owen-0459
Quote
“There will be another extension probably.”
Second linked call: after a first extension of the telehealth controlled-substance prescribing flexibilities, the DEA will probably extend again.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing a second time
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 1 May 2025
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “probably”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- dea_telemedicine_extension · 0.83
- Tags
- conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0015 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
DEA issues a second rule or order that extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for prescribing controlled substances beyond the end date set by the first extension.
TRUE on the Federal Register publication date of a second DEA rule or order that extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for prescribing controlled substances beyond the end date set by the first extension. Requires that a first extension exists. A proposed rule is not an extension; a permanent final rule that replaces the flexibilities is not an extension. FALSE at the deadline when no second extension has been published in the Federal Register, including when the flexibilities lapse at the end date set by the first extension. Resolution source: the Federal Register.
Resolution source: Federal Register
Readings: 'Another extension' is read as a second temporary extension after the first; a permanent final rule that replaces the flexibilities is not an extension.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 1 May 2025
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 10 Oct 2023 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Criterion: the FR publication date of a second DEA rule or order extending the flexibilities beyond the end date set by the first extension (2023-11-11, grace period to 2024-11-11). The first extension exists (88 FR 30037, 2023-05-10). The 'Second Temporary Extension' (Docket DEA-407, RIN 1117-AB40 and 1117-AB78) was published 2023-10-10, took effect 2023-11-11, and extends the full flexibilities for all practitioner-patient relationships through 2024-12-31. It is a temporary rule, not a permanent replacement, so it qualifies. DEA announced it on 2023-10-06, but this criterion names only the FR publication date. The later third (2024-11-19) and fourth (2025-12-31) extensions do not change the first-true date.
- Evidence
- Second Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications; Temporary rule, 88 FR 69879 (Docket DEA-407) · 10 Oct 2023
- Second Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications (full text, 88 FR 69879-69883) · 10 Oct 2023
- Federal Register API: all documents in docket DEA-407 (7 documents, 2023-03-01 to 2025-12-31)
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- 0.09 = (0.70 − 1)²
- Base-rate Brier
- 0.03
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): I tried to move the date to DEA's announcement of 2023-10-06 ('DEA and HHS Extend Telemedicine Flexibilities through 2024') or to the public-inspection posting. Unlike E-0014, this criterion names only the Federal Register publication date. The Federal Register API gives publication_date 2023-10-10 for 88 FR 69879 (document 2023-22406, docket DEA-407), a temporary rule that extends the full flexibilities through 2024-12-31, beyond the 2023-11-11 end date and the 2024-11-11 grace period set by the first extension of 2023-05-10. It is a temporary rule, not a permanent replacement. The third (2024-11-19) and fourth (2025-12-31) extensions do not change the first-true date. Occurred on 2023-10-10 stands.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions