Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Christian Angermayer

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

investor · Founder, Apeiron Investment Group · co-founder and chairman, atai Life Sciences · Ad hoc collection (tier C)How completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method › · 197 statements

About this person

German investor. Seed investor and long-time large shareholder in Compass Pathways (COMP360 psilocybin); co-founded atai Life Sciences in 2018, which merged with Beckley Psytech in 2025 and agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly in July 2026. Speaks on X, LinkedIn, Substack, conferences and podcasts.

Substack · X · atai investor relations

Scoreboard

0.52
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method › · 95% 0.32 to 0.70 · provisionalHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method ›

Worse than a coin flip, provisional.

Resolved eventsA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method ›
10
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
22
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
6
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
3
More metrics
Hit rateThe share of clusters where the person was on the right side of 0.50. Items at exactly 0.50 are left out. Reported with a Wilson interval. Method ›
30% (3 of 10)
Dated viewThe headline panel restricted to items with a deadline in the person's own words. Shown beside the headline; it was the rules 1.0 headline. Method ›
1 of 7 · 5 events
Undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›
2 of 7 · 7 events · 24-month window
Skill1 minus the person's Brier divided by a reference Brier on the same clusters. Positive beats the reference; 0 equals it. Method › against base ratesThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
needs 10 paired events · 3 now
Market skillThe last public prediction-market price up to 7 days before the statement, on a question whose deadline is within one quarter of the item's. Used for the market row and market skill. Method ›
needs 5 events with a market quote · 0 now
Leave-one-out changeThe largest change in the mean Brier when one cluster is removed. A stability check next to the interval. Method ›
0.05
Affiliated shareA flag on an item where a third party decides the event but the person has a disclosed role, stake, employment, board seat or trial site in an entity named in the event. Scored and flagged; the headline is shown with and without. Method ›
65%
Headline without affiliated itemsThe headline metrics recomputed on clusters with no affiliated item. Shown only when both sides have enough clusters. Method ›
needs 10 resolved events · 4 now
Murphy decompositionThe mean Brier split into reliability (how far the words were from the truth), resolution (how much the words sorted outcomes) and uncertainty (how hard the events were): B = REL - RES + UNC. Method ›
needs 30 resolved events · 10 now
Scoreable shareAdmitted headline items divided by sincere statements, with a Wilson interval. The share of what the person said that could be checked. Method ›
9.8% (19 dated of 193 sincere)
TRUETRUE3FALSEFALSE11KNOWN TRUEKNOWN TRUE6PENDINGPENDING22VOIDVOID648ITEMS1 TICK = 1 ITEM

Headline panel · 45 items

Brier over time

Cumulative Brier 0.52 after 10 events, down from 0.70 in 2024 Q4.

quarterfewer than 3 eventscoin flip 0.25
COIN FLIP00.20.40.620252026Angermayer · 2024-Q4 · 0.70 · n=3Angermayer · 2025-Q2 · 0.69 · n=3Angermayer · 2025-Q3 · 0.72 · n=4Angermayer · 2025-Q4 · 0.73 · n=4Angermayer · 2026-Q1 · 0.70 · n=6Angermayer · 2026-Q2 · 0.52 · n=100.52ANGERMAYER0.73BRIER · LOWER IS BETTER

Headline panel · by deadline quarter

Areas

Regulatory decisions holds 3 of 10 resolved events.

one resolved eventBrier per area (null under 5)
REGULATORY7TRIALS3COMPANY2PAYER0PRACTICE2

Resolved events by area

Admission

51 admitted

1 in 4 statements is a checkable claim; 14 are resolved.

FOUND197SINCERE193ADMITTED51RESOLVED141 RUNG = 5 STATEMENTS
How to read
Found is every forward-looking statement in the corpus. Sincere removes satire and third-party claims. AdmittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › passed intake under the rules. ResolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › has an outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›. Method › Reason codes · Every statement by Angermayer ›

Every statement · Angermayer

Not admitted by reason

Vague or promotional accounts for 76 of 146 statements not admitted.

VAGUE OR PROMOTIONAL76COMMITMENT (OWN VENTURE)32OUTSIDE THE FIVE AREAS15NOT A FORECAST10THIRD-PARTY CLAIM4PARAPHRASE, NOT OWN WORDS4NORMATIVE3REPORT OR SCOOP1DUPLICATE EXTRACTION11 RUNG = 5 STATEMENTS
How to read
A statement that is not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › keeps its quote and a reason codeThe logged reason a statement was not admitted: VAGUE, CONTROL, REPORT, NORMATIVE, THIRD_PARTY, SATIRE, KNOWN, OUT_OF_AREA, NOT_FORECAST, DUPLICATE. Method ›; it is counted, never scored. An admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › statement becomes an itemAn admitted statement with its intake fields: event, deadline, probability, tags. An item carries no outcome fields; the outcome lives on the registry event. Method ›. Each rung links to the statements behind it.

Not admitted · reason codes

Sensitivity

10 events

Other rules move the headline by at most 0.11.

VariantBrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›N
Headline0.5210
Dated items only— needs 10 events · 5 now5
Lexicon ends 0.85/0.150.4910
Flat 0.750.4110
Kent words0.5610
Non-affiliated only— needs 10 events · 4 now4
Prospective only— needs 10 events · 0 now0
Undated 36 months— needs 10 events · 6 now6

Sensitivity panel · same events

Claims

45 claims since 2021; 14 resolved, 28 pending.

truefalsependingvoid
2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203510 MAY 2021First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · pending · p 90%AFF16 NOV 2022atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · pending · p 50%AFF16 NOV 2022FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · false · p 90%AFF16 NOV 2022FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · false · p 90%AFF4 APR 2023FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · false · p 70%AFF1 JUN 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%1 JUN 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 90%7 AUG 2023First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · false · p 90%AFF23 FEB 2024Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · false · p 70%15 APR 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%15 APR 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · pending · p 90%AFF15 APR 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · pending · p 80%AFF15 APR 2024A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · false · p 90%8 MAY 2024A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · true · p 80%AFF8 MAY 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · void · p 90%AFF8 MAY 2024Compass Pathways reports its first COMP360 Phase 3 topline readout · false · p 90%AFF5 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void · p 70%24 JUN 2024Spravato annual sales at or above US$1 billion · true · p 70%31 JUL 2024atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · void · p 90%AFF20 SEP 2024Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · pending · p 20%30 SEP 2024A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · pending · p 70%AFF20 FEB 2025Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000 · pending · p 80%20 FEB 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 30%16 MAY 2025atai share price at or above twice its 16 May 2025 close · pending · p 70%AFF5 JUN 2025Mental health becomes the largest therapeutic-area market in healthcare · pending · p 90%1 JUL 2025BPL-003 annual sales at or above US$1 billion · pending · p 50%AFF1 JUL 2025BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result · pending · p 50%AFF28 JUL 2025FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · pending · p 90%AFF28 JUL 2025FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial · pending · p 50%AFF28 JUL 2025VLS-01 (DMT) Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · false · p 90%AFF1 OCT 2025A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · pending · p 70%1 OCT 2025A large pharmaceutical company partners with atai on a psychedelic program · pending · p 70%AFF21 OCT 2025A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · pending · p 70%24 OCT 2025FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · pending · p 90%AFF24 OCT 2025atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · pending · p 50%AFF24 OCT 2025atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$20 billion · pending · p 70%AFF24 OCT 2025atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$50 billion · pending · p 70%AFF4 FEB 2026FDA action (approval or complete response letter) on the COMP360 NDA for treatment-resistant depression · pending · p 70%AFF18 FEB 2026AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index · pending · p 70%AFF18 FEB 2026BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result · pending · p 50%AFF20 APR 2026A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · pending · p 60%7 MAY 2026FDA approval of BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) · pending · p 90%AFF7 MAY 2026AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index · true · p 80%AFF7 MAY 2026The next DT120 (MM120, LSD) Phase 3 topline meets its primary endpoint · pending · p 90%7 MAY 2026FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · pending · p 70%AFFTODAYDOT AREA = P · HAIRLINE = SAID TO DUE

All admitted items

Claims and events

30 claims against 60 events in the field.

saiddueevent
10 May 2021 · MAPS PBC (MAPP1): Nature Medicine publishes MAPP1 phase 3: MDMA-assisted therapy beat placebo-withMAPS PBC (MAPP1): NATURE MEDICINE PUBLISHES MAPP1 PHASE 3: MDMA-ASSISTED THERAPY BEAT PLACEBO-WITH29 Oct 2021 · Stanford (SNT/SAINT): American Journal of Psychiatry publishes double-blind sham-controlled RCT of Sta5 Jan 2022 · Health Canada: Canada Gazette publishes SOR/2021-271, restoring Special Access Program requests14 Jan 2022 · DEA: DEA proposes placing five tryptamine hallucinogens (4-OH-DiPT, 5-MeO-AMT, 5-MeO-16 Feb 2022 · FDA: FDA alerts health care professionals to potential risks of compounded ketamine n27 Jul 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its proposed Schedule I placement of five tryptamines after hearin8 Aug 2022 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-2): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-2: KarXT beat placebo on PANSS total sc19 Aug 2022 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity, AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), the first oral NMDA receptor29 Aug 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its April 2022 proposal to place DOI and DOC in Schedule I, citing6 Sep 2022 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): FDA grants 510(k) clearance to Magnus Medical's SAINT Neuromodulation System (MR3 Nov 2022 · Compass Pathways (COMP360 phase 2b): NEJM publishes Compass phase 2b: a single 25 mg COMP360 psilocybin dose beat 1 m8 Nov 2022 · Colorado voters: Colorado voters approve Proposition 122 (Natural Medicine Health Act), decrimina8 Dec 2022 · Relmada Therapeutics (REL-1017): Relmada's esmethadone fails a second large phase 3 depression trial two months a27 Dec 2022 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA adopts final administrative rules implementing Measure 109 psilocybin servic2 Jan 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon Psilocybin Services begins accepting applications for manufacturer, servi3 Feb 2023 · TGA (Australia): TGA announces final decision to reschedule psilocybin (TRD) and MDMA (PTSD) to S1 Mar 2023 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rules on telemedicine prescribing of controlled substance6 Mar 2023 · atai Life Sciences: atai lays off about 30% of staff and reviews its pipeline two months after the P7 Mar 2023 · Synthesis Institute: Synthesis Institute, a psilocybin retreat operator and Oregon's largest facilita16 Mar 2023 · Ketamine Wellness Centers (Delic Holdings): Ketamine Wellness Centers, a Delic Holdings subsidiary, abruptly shuts all of it20 Mar 2023 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-3): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-3, its third positive registrational Ka22 Mar 2023 · Field Trip Health & Wellness: Field Trip Health & Wellness obtains CCAA creditor protection from the Ontario S5 May 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon issues its first psilocybin service center license (EPIC Healing Eugene);10 May 2023 · DEA and HHS: First temporary extension of COVID-19 telemedicine flexibilities for controlled 23 May 2023 · Colorado Governor Polis: Governor signs SB23-290 (Natural Medicine Regulation and Legalization), creating24 May 2023 · ELEKT-D (ketamine vs ECT): NEJM publishes ELEKT-D: subanesthetic IV ketamine was noninferior to ECT in 403 26 Jun 2023 · FDA: FDA issues draft guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Invest1 Jul 2023 · TGA (Australia): Rescheduling takes effect: authorised psychiatrists may prescribe MDMA for PTSD 5 Jul 2023 · Wesana Health: Wesana Health closes the sale of its SANA-013 assets, completing its exit from t21 Jul 2023 · Neurolief (Relivion DP, MOOD trial): Neurolief reports a positive interim analysis of its MOOD pivotal trial of at-ho4 Aug 2023 · Sage Therapeutics / Biogen (zuranolone): FDA approves Zurzuvae (zuranolone) as the first oral treatment for postpartum de16 Aug 2023 · Compass Pathways: Compass Pathways raises $285M in a private placement to fund the COMP360 phase 329 Aug 2023 · HHS: HHS recommends to DEA that marijuana be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III of31 Aug 2023 · Usona Institute (PSIL201): JAMA publishes Usona's phase 2 PSIL201: a single 25 mg psilocybin dose beat niac14 Sep 2023 · MAPS PBC (MAPP2): Nature Medicine publishes confirmatory phase 3 MAPP2 of MDMA-assisted therapy in15 Sep 2023 · Neumora Therapeutics: Neumora completes a $250M IPO to fund late-stage navacaprant depression trials.5 Oct 2023 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato, ESCAPE-TRD): NEJM publishes ESCAPE-TRD: esketamine nasal spray beat quetiapine XR on remissio7 Oct 2023 · California Governor Newsom: Newsom vetoes SB 58, which would have decriminalized psilocybin and other plant 10 Oct 2023 · DEA and HHS: Second temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati10 Oct 2023 · FDA: FDA warns patients and providers about risks of compounded ketamine products, in18 Oct 2023 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-012 (package insert update).26 Oct 2023 · Nue Life Health: Venture studio Beckley Waves acquires ketamine telehealth company Nue Life after30 Nov 2023 · Cybin (CYB003): Cybin reports positive phase 2 topline for deuterated psilocybin analog CYB003 i13 Dec 2023 · DEA: DEA again proposes placing DOI and DOC (phenethylamine research hallucinogens) i14 Dec 2023 · MindMed (MM120, phase 2b GAD): MindMed reports positive phase 2b of MM120 (LSD) in GAD with dose-dependent HAM-22 Dec 2023 · Bristol Myers Squibb / Karuna Therapeutics: Bristol Myers Squibb agrees to acquire Karuna Therapeutics, adding KarXT ahead o4 Jan 2024 · atai Life Sciences / Beckley Psytech: atai makes a $50M strategic investment in Beckley Psytech, taking a minority sta5 Jan 2024 · Lykos Therapeutics (ex-MAPS PBC): MAPS PBC rebrands as Lykos Therapeutics and raises a $100M Series A ahead of its5 Jan 2024 · Stanford Medicine / VETS (magnesium-ibogaine): Nature Medicine publishes Stanford's open-label magnesium-ibogaine study in 30 s13 Feb 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA accepts Lykos's NDA for midomafetamine (MDMA)-assisted therapy for PTSD with7 Mar 2024 · FDA / MindMed: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to MM120 (LSD D-tartrate) for genera13 Mar 2024 · Cybin (CYB003): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to CYB003 for adjunctive treatment o13 Mar 2024 · FDA / Cybin: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to CYB003 (deuterated psilocybin ana18 Mar 2024 · Cybin: Cybin closes an oversubscribed $150M private placement to fund CYB003 phase 3 an20 Mar 2024 · Usona Institute (uAspire / PSIL301): Usona launches phase 3 uAspire: single 25 mg psilocybin dose vs placebo in about21 Mar 2024 · Utah Legislature: SB 266 becomes law without the governor's signature, allowing large Utah health 26 Mar 2024 · Neuronetics (NeuroStar): FDA clears NeuroStar TMS as a first-line adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 16 Apr 2024 · European Medicines Agency: EMA holds a multi-stakeholder workshop 'Psychedelics: towards an EU regulatory f21 May 2024 · DOJ / DEA: DOJ publishes proposed rule to transfer marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II30 May 2024 · Johnson & Johnson (seltorexant, MDD3001): J&J reports phase 3 MDD3001: adjunctive seltorexant met all primary and secondarFIRST FDA APPROVA…First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · stated 10 May 2021First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · restated 10 May 2021 · p 90%ATAI LIFE SCIENCE…atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · stated 16 Nov 2022atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · restated 16 Nov 2022 · p 50%FDA APPROVAL OF C…FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · stated 16 Nov 2022FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · restated 16 Nov 2022 · p 90%FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · miss 16 Nov 2024FDA APPROVAL OF C…FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · stated 16 Nov 2022FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · restated 16 Nov 2022 · p 90%FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · miss 16 Nov 2025FDA APPROVAL OF C…FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · stated 4 Apr 2023FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · restated 4 Apr 2023 · p 70%FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · miss 4 Apr 2025FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 1 Jun 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 1 Jun 2023 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 27 Feb 2024 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 31 Dec 2024FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 1 Jun 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 1 Jun 2023 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 1 Jun 2025FIRST FDA APPROVA…First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · stated 7 Aug 2023First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · restated 7 Aug 2023 · p 90%First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · miss 7 Aug 2025PSILOCYBIN PRESCR…Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · stated 23 Feb 2024Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · restated 23 Feb 2024 · p 70%Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · miss 23 Feb 2026FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 15 Apr 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 15 Apr 2024 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 15 Apr 2025A MAJOR REGULATOR…A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · stated 15 Apr 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · restated 15 Apr 2024 · p 80%A MAJOR REGULATOR…A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · stated 15 Apr 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · restated 15 Apr 2024 · p 90%A MAJOR PRACTICE…A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · stated 15 Apr 2024A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · restated 15 Apr 2024 · p 90%A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment · miss 15 Apr 2026A MAJOR REGULATOR…A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · stated 8 May 2024A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · restated 8 May 2024 · p 90%A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic · void 8 May 2026COMPASS PATHWAYS…Compass Pathways reports its first COMP360 Phase 3 topline readout · stated 8 May 2024Compass Pathways reports its first COMP360 Phase 3 topline readout · restated 8 May 2024 · p 90%Compass Pathways reports its first COMP360 Phase 3 topline readout · miss 31 Dec 2024A COMP360 (PSILOC…A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · stated 8 May 2024A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · restated 8 May 2024 · p 80%A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · hit 23 Jun 2025FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 5 Jun 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 5 Jun 2024 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 5 Jun 2024 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void 5 Jun 2026SPRAVATO ANNUAL S…Spravato annual sales at or above US$1 billion · stated 24 Jun 2024Spravato annual sales at or above US$1 billion · restated 24 Jun 2024 · p 70%Spravato annual sales at or above US$1 billion · hit 22 Jan 2025ATAI LIFE SCIENCE…atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · stated 31 Jul 2024atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · restated 31 Jul 2024 · p 90%atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion · void 31 Jul 2026PSILOCYBIN, LSD O…Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · stated 20 Sep 2024Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · restated 20 Sep 2024 · p 20%A COMP360 (PSILOC…A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · stated 30 Sep 2024A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · restated 30 Sep 2024 · p 70%FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 20 Feb 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 20 Feb 2025 · p 30%SPRAVATO PATIENTS…Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000 · stated 20 Feb 2025Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000 · restated 20 Feb 2025 · p 80%ATAI SHARE PRICE…atai share price at or above twice its 16 May 2025 close · stated 16 May 2025atai share price at or above twice its 16 May 2025 close · restated 16 May 2025 · p 70%MENTAL HEALTH BEC…Mental health becomes the largest therapeutic-area market in healthcare · stated 5 Jun 2025Mental health becomes the largest therapeutic-area market in healthcare · restated 5 Jun 2025 · p 90%BPL-003 ANNUAL SA…BPL-003 annual sales at or above US$1 billion · stated 1 Jul 2025BPL-003 annual sales at or above US$1 billion · restated 1 Jul 2025 · p 50%BPL-003 TWO-DOSE…BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result · stated 1 Jul 2025BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result · restated 1 Jul 2025 · p 50%FDA APPROVAL OF C…FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · stated 28 Jul 2025FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder · restated 28 Jul 2025 · p 90%FDA APPROVES BPL-…FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial · stated 28 Jul 2025FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial · restated 28 Jul 2025 · p 50%VLS-01 (DMT) PHAS…VLS-01 (DMT) Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · stated 28 Jul 2025VLS-01 (DMT) Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · restated 28 Jul 2025 · p 90%VLS-01 (DMT) Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint · miss 31 Mar 2026TODAY2022202420262028203020322034

Headline panel · all areas

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD 5 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20242025202620272024202520262027TODAY2023-06-01: by 2024-12-31 · p 0.702023-06-01: by 2025-06-01 · p 0.902024-02-27: by 2024-12-31 · p 0.702024-04-15: by 2025-04-15 · p 0.702024-06-05: by 2026-06-05 · p 0.702024-06-05: by 2026-06-05 · p 0.702025-02-20: by 2027-02-20 · p 0.30X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0001

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20222023202420252026202720282029203020312022202320242025202620272028202920302031TODAY2021-05-10: by 2031-05-10 · p 0.902023-08-07: by 2025-08-07 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0024

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20232024202520262027202820292023202420252026202720282029TODAY2022-11-16: by 2026-11-16 · p 0.502024-07-31: by 2026-07-31 · p 0.902025-10-24: by 2028-10-24 · p 0.50X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0028

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised A major regulator approves an atai psychedelic therapeutic 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
2025202620272028202920252026202720282029TODAY2024-04-15: by 2028-04-15 · p 0.802024-04-15: by 2029-04-15 · p 0.902024-05-08: by 2026-05-08 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0029

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised FDA approval of COMP360 (psilocybin) for major depressive disorder 6 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202320242025202620272028202320242025202620272028TODAY2022-11-16: by 2024-11-16 · p 0.902022-11-16: by 2025-11-16 · p 0.902023-04-04: by 2025-04-04 · p 0.702025-07-28: by 2027-07-28 · p 0.902025-10-24: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.902026-05-07: by 2028-05-07 · p 0.70X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0047

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index 2 times; it happened on 22 May 2026.

promised datehappened
202620272028202620272028TODAY2026-02-18: by 2028-02-18 · p 0.702026-05-07: by 2026-06-30 · p 0.702026-05-07: by 2026-06-30 · p 0.80HAPPENED 2026-05-22X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0059

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result 2 times; it happened on 23 Sep 2025.

promised datehappened
202620272028202620272028TODAY2025-07-01: by 2027-07-01 · p 0.502026-02-18: by 2028-02-18 · p 0.50HAPPENED 2025-09-23X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0106

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20252026202720282025202620272028TODAY2024-04-15: by 2026-04-15 · p 0.902025-10-01: by 2027-10-01 · p 0.702025-10-21: by 2027-10-21 · p 0.702026-04-20: by 2028-04-20 · p 0.60X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0111

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint 2 times; it happened on 23 Jun 2025.

promised datehappened
2025202620252026TODAY2024-05-08: by 2026-05-08 · p 0.802024-09-30: by 2026-09-30 · p 0.70HAPPENED 2025-06-23X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0127

Waiting for data

CalibrationFor each bin, the share of events that happened against the probability the bin claims. A person is calibrated when 'will' events happen about 90 percent of the time and 'may' events about half the time. Method ›10 of 20 resolved events
TimingFor items scored false whose event later happened: the months between the deadline and the outcome date. Median and quartiles are reported. Method ›1 of 5 false claims that later came true
How to read
A chart appears when its minimum n is met. The minimums are fixed in the rules and listed under Method › Metrics.