Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Rick Doblin

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

advocate · Founder and president, MAPS · founder of MAPS PBC (later Lykos Therapeutics) · Ad hoc collection (tier C)How completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method › · 270 statements

About this person

Founded the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies in 1986 and led it for decades. Founded MAPS Public Benefit Corporation, renamed Lykos Therapeutics in 2024, which received a complete response letter for MDMA-assisted therapy in August 2024; left the Lykos board afterwards. Speaks in MAPS bulletins, conferences and podcasts.

MAPS bulletins

Scoreboard

0.36
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method › · 95% 0.25 to 0.48 · provisionalHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method ›

Worse than a coin flip, provisional.

Resolved eventsA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method ›
13
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
12
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
0
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
17
More metrics
Hit rateThe share of clusters where the person was on the right side of 0.50. Items at exactly 0.50 are left out. Reported with a Wilson interval. Method ›
36% (4 of 10)
Dated viewThe headline panel restricted to items with a deadline in the person's own words. Shown beside the headline; it was the rules 1.0 headline. Method ›
1 of 16 · 6 events
Undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›
0.41 · 10 events · 24-month window
Skill1 minus the person's Brier divided by a reference Brier on the same clusters. Positive beats the reference; 0 equals it. Method › against base ratesThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
needs 10 paired events · 3 now
Market skillThe last public prediction-market price up to 7 days before the statement, on a question whose deadline is within one quarter of the item's. Used for the market row and market skill. Method ›
needs 5 events with a market quote · 0 now
Leave-one-out changeThe largest change in the mean Brier when one cluster is removed. A stability check next to the interval. Method ›
0.04
Affiliated shareA flag on an item where a third party decides the event but the person has a disclosed role, stake, employment, board seat or trial site in an entity named in the event. Scored and flagged; the headline is shown with and without. Method ›
90%
Headline without affiliated itemsThe headline metrics recomputed on clusters with no affiliated item. Shown only when both sides have enough clusters. Method ›
needs 10 resolved events · 3 now
Murphy decompositionThe mean Brier split into reliability (how far the words were from the truth), resolution (how much the words sorted outcomes) and uncertainty (how hard the events were): B = REL - RES + UNC. Method ›
needs 30 resolved events · 13 now
Scoreable shareAdmitted headline items divided by sincere statements, with a Wilson interval. The share of what the person said that could be checked. Method ›
16.7% (44 dated of 264 sincere)
TRUETRUE3FALSEFALSE33PENDINGPENDING12VOIDVOID2977ITEMS1 TICK = 1 ITEM

Headline panel · 65 items

Brier over time

Cumulative Brier 0.36 after 13 events, down from 0.49 in 2017 Q1.

quarterfewer than 3 eventscoin flip 0.25
COIN FLIP00.20.40.62017201820192020202120222023202420252026Doblin · 2017-Q1 · 0.49 · n=1Doblin · 2018-Q2 · 0.65 · n=2Doblin · 2019-Q3 · 0.52 · n=3Doblin · 2021-Q1 · 0.51 · n=4Doblin · 2021-Q3 · 0.43 · n=5Doblin · 2021-Q4 · 0.41 · n=6Doblin · 2022-Q2 · 0.43 · n=7Doblin · 2022-Q3 · 0.38 · n=7Doblin · 2022-Q4 · 0.38 · n=9Doblin · 2023-Q1 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2023-Q2 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2023-Q3 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2023-Q4 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2024-Q1 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2024-Q2 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2024-Q3 · 0.36 · n=10Doblin · 2024-Q4 · 0.33 · n=12Doblin · 2025-Q1 · 0.32 · n=12Doblin · 2025-Q2 · 0.36 · n=13Doblin · 2025-Q3 · 0.36 · n=13Doblin · 2025-Q4 · 0.36 · n=13Doblin · 2026-Q3 · 0.36 · n=130.36DOBLIN0.320.65BRIER · LOWER IS BETTER

Headline panel · by deadline quarter

Areas

Regulatory decisions holds 9 of 13 resolved events.

one resolved eventBrier per area (null under 5)
REGULATORY310.40TRIALS4COMPANY0PAYER1PRACTICE0

Resolved events by area

Admission

99 admitted

1 in 3 statements is a checkable claim; 36 are resolved.

FOUND270SINCERE264ADMITTED99RESOLVED361 RUNG = 5 STATEMENTS
How to read
Found is every forward-looking statement in the corpus. Sincere removes satire and third-party claims. AdmittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › passed intake under the rules. ResolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › has an outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›. Method › Reason codes · Every statement by Doblin ›

Every statement · Doblin

Not admitted by reason

Commitment (own venture) accounts for 96 of 171 statements not admitted.

COMMITMENT (OWN VENTURE)96VAGUE OR PROMOTIONAL31NOT A FORECAST19OUTSIDE THE FIVE AREAS13PARAPHRASE, NOT OWN WORDS6OUTCOME ALREADY PUBLIC2DUPLICATE EXTRACTION2REPORT OR SCOOP1THIRD-PARTY CLAIM11 RUNG = 5 STATEMENTS
How to read
A statement that is not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › keeps its quote and a reason codeThe logged reason a statement was not admitted: VAGUE, CONTROL, REPORT, NORMATIVE, THIRD_PARTY, SATIRE, KNOWN, OUT_OF_AREA, NOT_FORECAST, DUPLICATE. Method ›; it is counted, never scored. An admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › statement becomes an itemAn admitted statement with its intake fields: event, deadline, probability, tags. An item carries no outcome fields; the outcome lives on the registry event. Method ›. Each rung links to the statements behind it.

Not admitted · reason codes

Sensitivity

13 events

Other rules move the headline by at most 0.03.

VariantBrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›N
Headline0.3613
Dated items only— needs 10 events · 6 now6
Lexicon ends 0.85/0.150.3313
Flat 0.750.3313
Kent words0.3713
Non-affiliated only— needs 10 events · 3 now3
Prospective only— needs 10 events · 0 now0
Undated 36 months0.3513

Sensitivity panel · same events

Claims

65 claims since 2016; 36 resolved, 12 pending.

truefalsependingvoid
20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420354 APR 2016FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 90%AFF7 APR 2016FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 61%AFF7 APR 2016A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · void · p 70%AFF15 AUG 2016DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · false · p 70%AFF5 APR 2017First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · void · p 90%AFF5 SEP 2017FDA challenges the midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) Phase 3 results over an unsuccessful double-blind · false · p 50%AFF6 DEC 2017FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · void · p 90%AFF5 JAN 2018FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void · p 90%AFF14 JAN 2019MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · false · p 70%AFF1 APR 2019FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void · p 90%AFF10 MAY 2019FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · void · p 90%AFF10 SEP 2019FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void · p 90%AFF10 SEP 2019A second sponsor pursues its own MDMA-for-PTSD program with its own clinical data · false · p 30%AFF2 DEC 2019FDA accepts MAPS' three MDMA program proposals · false · p 70%AFF2 DEC 2019FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 90%AFF1 MAY 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF1 MAY 2020FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · false · p 70%11 JUN 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 90%AFF20 AUG 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%AFF26 AUG 2020MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · true · p 90%AFF26 AUG 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · void · p 90%AFF23 OCT 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 69%AFF6 NOV 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · pending · p 79%13 DEC 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%AFF13 DEC 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF13 DEC 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · false · p 50%15 MAR 2021DEA grants the Schedule I registration for the Bronx VA MDMA-assisted therapy PTSD study · true · p 70%AFF15 MAR 2021DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · false · p 90%19 MAR 2021FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void · p 90%AFF4 JUN 2021About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States · pending · p 90%4 JUN 2021FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · false · p 70%4 JUN 2021Texas reschedules MDMA out of Schedule I after FDA approval · void · p 70%AFF25 AUG 2021EU approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%AFF27 OCT 2021FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF5 JAN 2022FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF5 JAN 2022FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 90%AFF29 JUN 2022EU approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void · p 70%AFF29 JUN 2022FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF1 NOV 2022FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF12 DEC 2022MAPP2 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · false · p 70%AFF12 DEC 2022EU approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void · p 70%AFF12 DEC 2022DEA places midomafetamine (MDMA) in Schedule III or Schedule IV · void · p 70%AFF12 DEC 2022FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · void · p 90%AFF5 JAN 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%AFF23 JAN 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 63%AFF25 JAN 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF31 MAR 2023FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · void · p 90%AFF1 JUN 2023FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · false · p 90%AFF14 SEP 2023FDA action (approval or complete response letter) on the midomafetamine NDA for PTSD · true · p 70%AFF29 SEP 2023FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF19 FEB 2024Israel Ministry of Health approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void · p 90%AFF19 FEB 2024About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy · pending · p 90%AFF1 JUN 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF16 AUG 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 70%AFF27 DEC 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 70%27 DEC 2024FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFF12 MAR 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · false · p 50%AFF9 MAY 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · void · p 50%AFF9 MAY 2025FDA agrees the midomafetamine NDA can proceed without an additional Phase 3 trial · pending · p 50%AFF9 MAY 2025FDA approves a psychedelic drug product with labeling for group-format dosing · pending · p 30%AFF9 MAY 2025FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFF7 JAN 2026FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFF25 MAR 2026A US health plan covers MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFF21 APR 2026Ukraine approves an MDMA or psilocybin drug product · pending · p 90%AFF10 AUG 2026FDA action on the resubmitted midomafetamine NDA for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFFTODAYDOT AREA = P · HAIRLINE = SAID TO DUE

All admitted items

Claims and events

30 claims against 60 events in the field.

saiddueevent
10 May 2021 · MAPS PBC (MAPP1): Nature Medicine publishes MAPP1 phase 3: MDMA-assisted therapy beat placebo-withMAPS PBC (MAPP1): NATURE MEDICINE PUBLISHES MAPP1 PHASE 3: MDMA-ASSISTED THERAPY BEAT PLACEBO-WITH29 Oct 2021 · Stanford (SNT/SAINT): American Journal of Psychiatry publishes double-blind sham-controlled RCT of Sta5 Jan 2022 · Health Canada: Canada Gazette publishes SOR/2021-271, restoring Special Access Program requests14 Jan 2022 · DEA: DEA proposes placing five tryptamine hallucinogens (4-OH-DiPT, 5-MeO-AMT, 5-MeO-16 Feb 2022 · FDA: FDA alerts health care professionals to potential risks of compounded ketamine n27 Jul 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its proposed Schedule I placement of five tryptamines after hearin8 Aug 2022 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-2): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-2: KarXT beat placebo on PANSS total sc19 Aug 2022 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity, AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), the first oral NMDA receptor29 Aug 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its April 2022 proposal to place DOI and DOC in Schedule I, citing6 Sep 2022 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): FDA grants 510(k) clearance to Magnus Medical's SAINT Neuromodulation System (MR3 Nov 2022 · Compass Pathways (COMP360 phase 2b): NEJM publishes Compass phase 2b: a single 25 mg COMP360 psilocybin dose beat 1 m8 Nov 2022 · Colorado voters: Colorado voters approve Proposition 122 (Natural Medicine Health Act), decrimina8 Dec 2022 · Relmada Therapeutics (REL-1017): Relmada's esmethadone fails a second large phase 3 depression trial two months a27 Dec 2022 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA adopts final administrative rules implementing Measure 109 psilocybin servic2 Jan 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon Psilocybin Services begins accepting applications for manufacturer, servi3 Feb 2023 · TGA (Australia): TGA announces final decision to reschedule psilocybin (TRD) and MDMA (PTSD) to S1 Mar 2023 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rules on telemedicine prescribing of controlled substance7 Mar 2023 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Mace and Dean: Breakthrough Therapies Act reintroduced to let DEA move FDA breakthrough-designa20 Mar 2023 · Karuna Therapeutics (KarXT, EMERGENT-3): Karuna reports positive phase 3 EMERGENT-3, its third positive registrational Ka5 May 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon issues its first psilocybin service center license (EPIC Healing Eugene);10 May 2023 · DEA and HHS: First temporary extension of COVID-19 telemedicine flexibilities for controlled 23 May 2023 · Colorado Governor Polis: Governor signs SB23-290 (Natural Medicine Regulation and Legalization), creating24 May 2023 · ELEKT-D (ketamine vs ECT): NEJM publishes ELEKT-D: subanesthetic IV ketamine was noninferior to ECT in 403 26 Jun 2023 · FDA: FDA issues draft guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Invest1 Jul 2023 · TGA (Australia): Rescheduling takes effect: authorised psychiatrists may prescribe MDMA for PTSD 21 Jul 2023 · Neurolief (Relivion DP, MOOD trial): Neurolief reports a positive interim analysis of its MOOD pivotal trial of at-ho4 Aug 2023 · Sage Therapeutics / Biogen (zuranolone): FDA approves Zurzuvae (zuranolone) as the first oral treatment for postpartum de29 Aug 2023 · HHS: HHS recommends to DEA that marijuana be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III of31 Aug 2023 · Usona Institute (PSIL201): JAMA publishes Usona's phase 2 PSIL201: a single 25 mg psilocybin dose beat niac14 Sep 2023 · MAPS PBC (MAPP2): Nature Medicine publishes confirmatory phase 3 MAPP2 of MDMA-assisted therapy in5 Oct 2023 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato, ESCAPE-TRD): NEJM publishes ESCAPE-TRD: esketamine nasal spray beat quetiapine XR on remissio7 Oct 2023 · California Governor Newsom: Newsom vetoes SB 58, which would have decriminalized psilocybin and other plant 10 Oct 2023 · DEA and HHS: Second temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati10 Oct 2023 · FDA: FDA warns patients and providers about risks of compounded ketamine products, in18 Oct 2023 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-012 (package insert update).30 Nov 2023 · Cybin (CYB003): Cybin reports positive phase 2 topline for deuterated psilocybin analog CYB003 i13 Dec 2023 · DEA: DEA again proposes placing DOI and DOC (phenethylamine research hallucinogens) i14 Dec 2023 · MindMed (MM120, phase 2b GAD): MindMed reports positive phase 2b of MM120 (LSD) in GAD with dose-dependent HAM-22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot5 Jan 2024 · Stanford Medicine / VETS (magnesium-ibogaine): Nature Medicine publishes Stanford's open-label magnesium-ibogaine study in 30 s13 Feb 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA accepts Lykos's NDA for midomafetamine (MDMA)-assisted therapy for PTSD with7 Mar 2024 · FDA / MindMed: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to MM120 (LSD D-tartrate) for genera13 Mar 2024 · Cybin (CYB003): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to CYB003 for adjunctive treatment o13 Mar 2024 · FDA / Cybin: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to CYB003 (deuterated psilocybin ana20 Mar 2024 · Usona Institute (uAspire / PSIL301): Usona launches phase 3 uAspire: single 25 mg psilocybin dose vs placebo in about21 Mar 2024 · Utah Legislature: SB 266 becomes law without the governor's signature, allowing large Utah health 26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS26 Mar 2024 · Neuronetics (NeuroStar): FDA clears NeuroStar TMS as a first-line adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 16 Apr 2024 · European Medicines Agency: EMA holds a multi-stakeholder workshop 'Psychedelics: towards an EU regulatory f21 May 2024 · DOJ / DEA: DOJ publishes proposed rule to transfer marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II30 May 2024 · Johnson & Johnson (seltorexant, MDD3001): J&J reports phase 3 MDD3001: adjunctive seltorexant met all primary and secondar4 Jun 2024 · FDA PDAC / Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee votes against MDMA-assisted the4 Jun 2024 · FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee: Advisory committee votes 2-9 that MDMA-assisted therapy is not shown effective f7 Jun 2024 · DEA: DEA stays the June 10, 2024 administrative hearing on Schedule I placement of DO27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net heal9 Aug 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA issues a complete response letter (dated August 8) for MDMA capsules for PTS9 Aug 2024 · Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA issues a Complete Response Letter for MDMA-assisted therapy in PTSD and asks11 Aug 2024 · MAPS / Lykos (Psychopharmacology): Psychopharmacology retracts three MDMA-assisted therapy papers by MAPS/Lykos aut29 Aug 2024 · DEA: DEA publishes notice of an administrative hearing on the proposed marijuana rescFDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 4 Apr 2016FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 4 Apr 2016 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 4 Apr 2018FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 7 Apr 2016FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 7 Apr 2016 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 15 Aug 2016 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 19 Apr 2017 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 5 Sep 2017 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 18 Aug 2018 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 18 Nov 2018 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 1 Apr 2019 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 1 Apr 2019 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 18 Apr 2019 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 12 Jun 2019 · p 50%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 31 Dec 2021A US HEALTH INSUR…A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · stated 7 Apr 2016A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · restated 7 Apr 2016 · p 70%A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · void 7 Apr 2018DEA REGISTERS PRO…DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · stated 15 Aug 2016DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · restated 15 Aug 2016 · p 70%DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · miss 20 Jan 2017FIRST FDA APPROVA…First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · stated 5 Apr 2017First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · restated 5 Apr 2017 · p 90%First FDA approval of a psychedelic medicine (class) · void 5 Apr 2019FDA CHALLENGES TH…FDA challenges the midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) Phase 3 results over an unsuccessful double-blind · stated 5 Sep 2017FDA challenges the midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) Phase 3 results over an unsuccessful double-blind · restated 5 Sep 2017 · p 50%FDA challenges the midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) Phase 3 results over an unsuccessful double-blind · miss 5 Sep 2019FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · stated 6 Dec 2017FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · restated 6 Dec 2017 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · void 6 Dec 2019FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · stated 5 Jan 2018FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · restated 5 Jan 2018 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void 5 Jan 2020MAPP1 PHASE 3 TRI…MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · stated 14 Jan 2019MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · restated 14 Jan 2019 · p 70%MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · miss 14 Jan 2021FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · stated 1 Apr 2019FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · restated 1 Apr 2019 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void 1 Apr 2021FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · stated 10 May 2019FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · restated 10 May 2019 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · void 10 May 2021FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · stated 10 Sep 2019FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · restated 10 Sep 2019 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void 10 Sep 2021A SECOND SPONSOR…A second sponsor pursues its own MDMA-for-PTSD program with its own clinical data · stated 10 Sep 2019A second sponsor pursues its own MDMA-for-PTSD program with its own clinical data · restated 10 Sep 2019 · p 30%A second sponsor pursues its own MDMA-for-PTSD program with its own clinical data · miss 10 Sep 2021FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 2 Dec 2019FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 2 Dec 2019 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 2 Dec 2021FDA ACCEPTS MAPS'…FDA accepts MAPS' three MDMA program proposals · stated 2 Dec 2019FDA accepts MAPS' three MDMA program proposals · restated 2 Dec 2019 · p 70%FDA accepts MAPS' three MDMA program proposals · miss 2 Dec 2021FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 1 May 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 1 May 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 22 Jul 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 31 Dec 2022FDA APPROVAL OF A…FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · stated 1 May 2020FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · restated 1 May 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · miss 1 May 2022FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 11 Jun 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 11 Jun 2020 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 11 Jun 2022FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 20 Aug 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 20 Aug 2020 · p 50%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 20 Aug 2022MAPP1 PHASE 3 TRI…MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · stated 26 Aug 2020MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · restated 26 Aug 2020 · p 90%MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint · hit 3 May 2021FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · stated 26 Aug 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · restated 26 Aug 2020 · p 90%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS · void 26 Aug 2022FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 23 Oct 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 23 Oct 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 6 Nov 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 21 Jul 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 21 Jul 2021 · p 80%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 25 Aug 2021 · p 50%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 27 Oct 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 2 Dec 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 31 Dec 2023A US LICENCE LETS…A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · stated 6 Nov 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 6 Nov 2020 · p 60%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 80%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 27 Oct 2021 · p 80%FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 13 Dec 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 13 Dec 2020 · p 70%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 13 Dec 2022FDA APPROVAL OF M…FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · stated 13 Dec 2020FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · restated 13 Dec 2020 · p 50%FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD · miss 30 Jun 2023A US LICENCE LETS…A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · stated 13 Dec 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 13 Dec 2020 · p 50%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · miss 13 Dec 2022DEA REGISTERS PRO…DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · stated 15 Mar 2021DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · restated 15 Mar 2021 · p 90%DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research · miss 15 Mar 2023DEA GRANTS THE SC…DEA grants the Schedule I registration for the Bronx VA MDMA-assisted therapy PTSD study · stated 15 Mar 2021DEA grants the Schedule I registration for the Bronx VA MDMA-assisted therapy PTSD study · restated 15 Mar 2021 · p 70%DEA grants the Schedule I registration for the Bronx VA MDMA-assisted therapy PTSD study · hit 17 Nov 2021FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · stated 19 Mar 2021FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · restated 19 Mar 2021 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void 19 Mar 2023FDA APPROVAL OF A…FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · stated 4 Jun 2021FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 70%FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product · miss 31 Dec 2025TODAY2017201920212023202520272029203120332035

Headline panel · all areas

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD 26 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028TODAY2016-04-04: by 2018-04-04 · p 0.902016-04-07: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702016-08-15: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702017-04-19: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702017-09-05: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702018-08-18: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702018-11-18: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702019-04-01: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.902019-04-01: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.902019-04-18: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.702019-06-12: by 2021-12-31 · p 0.502019-12-02: by 2021-12-02 · p 0.902020-05-01: by 2022-12-31 · p 0.702020-06-11: by 2022-06-11 · p 0.902020-07-22: by 2022-12-31 · p 0.702020-08-20: by 2022-08-20 · p 0.502020-10-23: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702020-11-06: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702020-12-13: by 2022-12-13 · p 0.702020-12-13: by 2023-06-30 · p 0.502021-06-04: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702021-06-04: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702021-07-21: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702021-07-21: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.802021-08-25: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.502021-10-27: by 2023-10-31 · p 0.702021-10-27: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702021-12-02: by 2023-12-31 · p 0.702022-01-05: by 2023-09-30 · p 0.702022-01-05: by 2024-01-05 · p 0.902022-06-29: by 2024-06-29 · p 0.702022-11-01: by 2024-06-30 · p 0.702023-01-05: by 2025-01-05 · p 0.502023-01-23: by 2024-12-31 · p 0.502023-01-25: by 2024-05-31 · p 0.702023-09-14: by 2024-12-31 · p 0.702023-09-29: by 2025-09-29 · p 0.702024-02-19: by 2024-06-30 · p 0.702024-06-01: by 2024-08-31 · p 0.702024-08-16: by 2026-08-16 · p 0.702024-12-27: by 2026-12-27 · p 0.902024-12-27: by 2027-12-27 · p 0.702025-03-12: by 2025-09-12 · p 0.502025-05-09: by 2025-11-09 · p 0.502025-05-09: by 2027-05-09 · p 0.902026-01-07: by 2028-01-07 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0001

Receding horizon

Doblin promised MAPP1 Phase 3 trial of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD meets its primary endpoint 2 times; it happened on 3 May 2021.

promised datehappened
2019202020212022202320242025202620192020202120222023202420252026TODAY2019-01-14: by 2021-01-14 · p 0.702020-08-26: by 2022-08-26 · p 0.90HAPPENED 2021-05-03X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0002

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202120222023202420252026202120222023202420252026TODAY2020-05-01: by 2022-05-01 · p 0.702021-06-04: by 2025-12-31 · p 0.70X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0003

Receding horizon

Doblin promised EU approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
2022202320242025202620222023202420252026TODAY2021-08-25: by 2024-12-31 · p 0.502022-06-29: by 2024-06-29 · p 0.702022-12-12: by 2024-12-12 · p 0.70X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0004

Receding horizon

Doblin promised DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20172018201920202021202220232024202520262017201820192020202120222023202420252026TODAY2016-08-15: by 2017-01-20 · p 0.702021-03-15: by 2023-03-15 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0072

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD carries a REMS 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
201820192020202120222023202420252026201820192020202120222023202420252026TODAY2017-12-06: by 2019-12-06 · p 0.902020-08-26: by 2022-08-26 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0076

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
201820192020202120222023202420252026201820192020202120222023202420252026TODAY2018-01-05: by 2020-01-05 · p 0.902019-04-01: by 2021-04-01 · p 0.902019-09-10: by 2021-09-10 · p 0.902021-03-19: by 2023-03-19 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0077

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20202021202220232024202520262020202120222023202420252026TODAY2019-05-10: by 2021-05-10 · p 0.902022-12-12: by 2024-12-12 · p 0.902023-03-31: by 2025-03-31 · p 0.902023-06-01: by 2025-06-01 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0078

Receding horizon

Doblin promised A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use 2 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036TODAY2020-11-06: by 2035-12-31 · p 0.602020-12-13: by 2022-12-13 · p 0.502021-06-04: by 2035-12-31 · p 0.802021-10-27: by 2035-12-31 · p 0.80X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0134

Waiting for data

CalibrationFor each bin, the share of events that happened against the probability the bin claims. A person is calibrated when 'will' events happen about 90 percent of the time and 'may' events about half the time. Method ›13 of 20 resolved events
TimingFor items scored false whose event later happened: the months between the deadline and the outcome date. Median and quartiles are reported. Method ›4 of 5 false claims that later came true
How to read
A chart appears when its minimum n is met. The minimums are fixed in the rules and listed under Method › Metrics.