Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 5 Jan 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 5 Jan 2026 · owen-2038

Quote

“Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation has an FDA label for adolescent depression, and national coverage from UnitedHealthgroup, Cigna, Medical, and more for heaven’s sake. Other plans will follow.”
· Why Are We Still Prescribing Most Oral Medicines for Depression in Adolescents? · substack post

Second recommendation: TMS for adolescent depression is FDA-labeled and nationally covered by UnitedHealth Group and Cigna; the author predicts other health plans will follow with coverage.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 5 Jan 2028
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “Other plans will follow”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0056 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

An additional US health plan, beyond those that covered TMS for adolescent depression on 5 January 2026, adopts a coverage policy that covers TMS for depression in adolescents.

TRUE on the effective date of a published medical policy or coverage bulletin from a US health plan (commercial or public), other than UnitedHealth Group/UnitedHealthcare and Cigna, that newly lists transcranial magnetic stimulation as covered or medically necessary for major depressive disorder in adolescents (an age range that includes patients under 18), where the plan's policy in force on 2026-01-05 did not cover TMS for patients under 18, as shown by the policy's revision history or the prior policy text. Adult-only TMS coverage, individual case exceptions and coverage limited to clinical trials do not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy has taken effect by then. Resolution source: the health plan's published medical policy bulletin (policy library with revision history).

Resolution source: The health plan's published medical policy bulletin (policy library with revision history)

Readings: 'Other plans will follow' = at least one additional US health plan adopts adolescent TMS coverage; the countable set is US health plans with a published TMS policy, baseline the plans covering adolescents on the statement date (UnitedHealth Group, Cigna, 'Medical' and 'more', per the forecaster).; 'Medical' in the quote is not resolved to a named plan; any plan already covering on the statement date is excluded by the 'newly' test rather than by name.; 'Adolescent depression' = major depressive disorder in patients under 18; a policy whose covered age range includes ages below 18 counts.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
5 Jan 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Looked for a US health plan (other than UHC and Cigna) whose policy newly covers TMS for patients under 18 with an effective date after 2026-01-05. Plans that already covered adolescents 15+ before the baseline fail the newly test: Humana (2024-04-25), Aetna (2024), Medi-Cal (2024-08-01), TRICARE West (Nov 2025) and Premera (15+ since 2023-02-03; its 2026 revisions concern accelerated TMS and tapers, not age). Neuronetics 2026 releases announce no adolescent coverage policy. BrainsWay 2026 releases (Premera 2026-01-07, Highmark draft 2026-01-21, South Carolina June 2026) concern accelerated-protocol coverage and do not show a plan that previously excluded under-18s. Highmark prior policy text could not be retrieved (policy site and web archive unavailable), so its draft is treated as unverified, not qualifying. No qualifying policy found as of 2026-09-13.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 9 events in the field.

saiddueevent
15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) namedTEXAS HHSC: UTHEALTH HOUSTON-LED IMPACT CONSORTIUM (UTMB, DELL MED, BAYLOR AND OTHERS) NAMED5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattAN ADDITIONAL US…An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · stated 5 Jan 2026An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · restated 5 Jan 2026 · p 90%90%TODAY20272028

Payer and policy

← Earlier · Later → · All statements