Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

True · Brier 0.25

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“In the near future one could, under Medicare, go to a hospital with depression and leave no longer depressed. 79% of the time.”
· Why Insurance Won't Cover Innovative Treatments for Depression--Answered! · substack post Paid

Describes SAINT as a technology that treats depression to remission in 5 days with no oral medication. If the NTAP proposal is adopted, Medicare patients could soon be treated to remission in a psychiatric hospital; 79% is the SAINT trial remission rate restated as a future expectation.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 6 Jun 2025
Probability
0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “could”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0016 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry

CMS approves a Medicare New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) for SAINT Neuromodulation under the inpatient prospective payment system.

TRUE on the effective date of a Medicare inpatient prospective payment system (IPPS) final rule, published in the Federal Register by CMS, that approves a New Technology Add-On Payment for SAINT Neuromodulation. The proposed rule, the open comment period, a coding assignment or a national coverage analysis is not approval. Resolution source: the Federal Register (CMS Medicare IPPS final rule, NTAP determinations). FALSE at the deadline when no IPPS final rule approving an NTAP for SAINT Neuromodulation has been published.

Resolution source: Federal Register (CMS Medicare IPPS final rule, NTAP determinations)

Readings: 'under Medicare, go to a hospital with depression and leave no longer depressed' is read as Medicare paying for SAINT in hospitals through the NTAP program the post names.; '79% of the time' restates the SAINT trial remission rate; it is not a separate scored claim.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
True
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
6 Jun 2025
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 1 Oct 2023 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Criterion: the effective date of a CMS IPPS final rule in the Federal Register that approves an NTAP for SAINT Neuromodulation. The FY 2024 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule (88 FR 58640, published 2023-08-28, effective 2023-10-01) states: 'we are finalizing our proposal to approve new technology add-on payments for the SAINT Neuromodulation System for FY 2024', maximum add-on payment $12,675 (65% of the $19,500 cost per case), cases identified by ICD-10-PCS X0Z0X18, for MDD in adults who failed prior antidepressant medication. Date = effective date 2023-10-01. Magnus's 2024-04-30 launch release confirms the NTAP ('up to $12,675 per hospital inpatient treatment'). The NTAP was continued for FY 2025 and FY 2026; the FY 2027 final rule (published 2026-08-04, effective 2026-10-01) discontinues it, which does not alter the first-true date.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
0.25 = (0.50 − 1)²
Adversarial recheck

upheld (date): I tested whether the date should be the publication date (2023-08-28) or the display date (2023-08-01) rather than the effective date, and whether the approval was final. The FY 2024 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule (88 FR 58640) states 'we are finalizing that the maximum new technology add-on payment for a case involving the use of the SAINT Neuromodulation System is $12,675.00 for FY 2024', with cases identified by ICD-10-PCS X0Z0X18, and 'DATES: This final rule is effective October 1, 2023.' The criterion names the effective date, so 2023-10-01 is correct. No earlier IPPS rule approved an NTAP for SAINT; FDA clearance came 2022-09-06, after the FY 2023 application cycle. The rule also records the applicant's statement that SAINT would be commercially available on 2024-04-15, which bears on the newness period, not on approval. Occurred on 2023-10-01 stands.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 25 events in the field.

saiddueevent
22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net healICER: ICER FINAL REPORT: PANEL VOTES 14-1 THAT EVIDENCE IS INADEQUATE TO SHOW NET HEAL23 Sep 2024 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: MHPAEA final rule published (released September 9): NQTL comparative-analysis an3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattMEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · stated 6 Jun 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · restated 6 Jun 2023 · p 50%Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · hit 1 Oct 202350%TODAY202420252026

Payer and policy