True · Brier 0.25
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 6 Jun 2023 · owen-0529
Quote
“In the near future one could, under Medicare, go to a hospital with depression and leave no longer depressed. 79% of the time.”
Describes SAINT as a technology that treats depression to remission in 5 days with no oral medication. If the NTAP proposal is adopted, Medicare patients could soon be treated to remission in a psychiatric hospital; 79% is the SAINT trial remission rate restated as a future expectation.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 6 Jun 2025
- Probability
- 0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “could”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0016 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry
CMS approves a Medicare New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) for SAINT Neuromodulation under the inpatient prospective payment system.
TRUE on the effective date of a Medicare inpatient prospective payment system (IPPS) final rule, published in the Federal Register by CMS, that approves a New Technology Add-On Payment for SAINT Neuromodulation. The proposed rule, the open comment period, a coding assignment or a national coverage analysis is not approval. Resolution source: the Federal Register (CMS Medicare IPPS final rule, NTAP determinations). FALSE at the deadline when no IPPS final rule approving an NTAP for SAINT Neuromodulation has been published.
Resolution source: Federal Register (CMS Medicare IPPS final rule, NTAP determinations)
Readings: 'under Medicare, go to a hospital with depression and leave no longer depressed' is read as Medicare paying for SAINT in hospitals through the NTAP program the post names.; '79% of the time' restates the SAINT trial remission rate; it is not a separate scored claim.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 6 Jun 2025
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 1 Oct 2023 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Criterion: the effective date of a CMS IPPS final rule in the Federal Register that approves an NTAP for SAINT Neuromodulation. The FY 2024 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule (88 FR 58640, published 2023-08-28, effective 2023-10-01) states: 'we are finalizing our proposal to approve new technology add-on payments for the SAINT Neuromodulation System for FY 2024', maximum add-on payment $12,675 (65% of the $19,500 cost per case), cases identified by ICD-10-PCS X0Z0X18, for MDD in adults who failed prior antidepressant medication. Date = effective date 2023-10-01. Magnus's 2024-04-30 launch release confirms the NTAP ('up to $12,675 per hospital inpatient treatment'). The NTAP was continued for FY 2025 and FY 2026; the FY 2027 final rule (published 2026-08-04, effective 2026-10-01) discontinues it, which does not alter the first-true date.
- Evidence
- Medicare Program; Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals and the Long-Term Care Hospital Prospective Payment System and Policy Changes and Fiscal Year 2024 Rates; final rule, 88 FR 58640, NTAP item (8) SAINT Neuromodulation System · 28 Aug 2023
- FY 2024 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule, 88 FR 58640 (effective 2023-10-01) · 28 Aug 2023
- Magnus Medical Announces Commercial Launch of Groundbreaking SAINT Neuromodulation System · 30 Apr 2024
- Federal Register API: CMS documents mentioning 'SAINT Neuromodulation' (FY 2024 to FY 2027 IPPS and OPPS rules)
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): I tested whether the date should be the publication date (2023-08-28) or the display date (2023-08-01) rather than the effective date, and whether the approval was final. The FY 2024 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule (88 FR 58640) states 'we are finalizing that the maximum new technology add-on payment for a case involving the use of the SAINT Neuromodulation System is $12,675.00 for FY 2024', with cases identified by ICD-10-PCS X0Z0X18, and 'DATES: This final rule is effective October 1, 2023.' The criterion names the effective date, so 2023-10-01 is correct. No earlier IPPS rule approved an NTAP for SAINT; FDA clearance came 2022-09-06, after the FY 2023 application cycle. The rule also records the applicant's statement that SAINT would be commercially available on 2024-04-15, which bears on the newness period, not on approval. Occurred on 2023-10-01 stands.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 25 events in the field.
Payer and policy