Pending · due 31 Dec 2026
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 Jan 2026 · owen-2031
Quote
“A professional society for kids’ care (AAP, AACAP, or the like) will issue a warning (or stern guideline) against prescribing all drugs (except prozac) for depression in youth.”
Item 9 of the 2026 predictions list: a pediatric or child psychiatry professional society (AAP, AACAP or similar) will issue a warning or guideline against prescribing antidepressants other than fluoxetine for youth depression.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A pediatric or child-psychiatry society warns against non-fluoxetine antidepressants for youth depression
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Practice adoption
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “2026 predictions list ('Ten 2026 Predictions on Which to Hang Your Hat.', published 1 January 2026)”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will issue a warning (or stern guideline)”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0051 · deadline 31 Dec 2026 · bin A
Registry entry
A professional society for children's health care issues a warning, policy statement or clinical guideline that recommends against prescribing antidepressant medications other than fluoxetine for depression in children and adolescents.
TRUE on the publication date of an official policy statement, clinical practice guideline, clinical report or public warning issued by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry (AACAP), or another professional society whose members care for children or adolescents, that recommends against, or advises clinicians not to prescribe, antidepressants other than fluoxetine for depression in children and/or adolescents, as shown by the document text. A guideline that ranks fluoxetine first while still endorsing other antidepressants, a statement about a single drug, an individual member's editorial, or an FDA action does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such document has been published by then. Resolution source: the issuing society's official publication or website (AAP: Pediatrics, aap.org; AACAP: JAACAP, aacap.org).
Resolution source: The issuing society's official publication or website (AAP: Pediatrics, aap.org; AACAP: JAACAP, aacap.org)
Readings: 'All drugs (except prozac) for depression in youth' = antidepressant medications other than fluoxetine, for depression in children and adolescents.; 'A warning (or stern guideline)' = a formal society document that recommends against such prescribing; ranking fluoxetine first while still endorsing alternatives does not count.; 'AAP, AACAP, or the like' = any professional society for children's care ('A or B' is one event).
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Checked AAP and AACAP official outputs and 2026 news. The AACAP clinical practice guideline (JAACAP 2022; summary updated 2026-08-27) suggests that SSRI medication (except paroxetine), preferably fluoxetine, could be offered: it ranks fluoxetine first but still endorses other SSRIs, which the criterion says does not count. AACAP policy statements issued in 2025-2026 (AI in care, service-intensity instruments, intermediate levels of care, ECT and others) contain nothing on antidepressants. AAP antidepressant guidance names escitalopram, fluoxetine and sertraline as the SSRIs with the strongest evidence and gives no warning against non-fluoxetine drugs; the AAP GLAD-PC endorsement was reaffirmed in June 2025 without such a warning. No document from a pediatric-care society recommending against antidepressants other than fluoxetine for youth depression was found as of 2026-09-13.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 0 events in the field.
Practice adoption