Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

False · Brier 0.01

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“What do you wanna bet your insurance isn’t gonna pay for it?”
· Could Your Depression Be In Remission in 5 Days? · substack post

Rhetorical question right after the call to action; the author predicts health insurers will not cover SAINT when it becomes available.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 8 Sep 2024
Probability
0.10 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “isn't gonna pay for it” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
denial, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0050 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

A US health payer with national scope covers accelerated TMS delivered in outpatient clinics, through a published coverage policy or a publicly announced pilot or network agreement.

TRUE on the effective date of (a) a published medical policy, bulletin or fee schedule of a US health payer with national scope (a national commercial insurer or a federal program) that lists an accelerated TMS protocol (more than one session per day, e.g. accelerated iTBS or SAINT/SNT) as covered or medically necessary in an outpatient clinic, or (b) a public announcement by such a payer, alone or with a provider, of a pilot or network agreement that pays for accelerated TMS in outpatient clinics. Once-daily TMS coverage, trial-only coverage, case exceptions, a single-state or regional plan, an unpublished contract, or inpatient-only coverage does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy or announcement is dated by then. Resolution source: the payer's policy bulletin or fee schedule, or the payer's or provider's press release for the agreement.

Resolution source: The payer's published medical policy bulletin or fee schedule; payer or provider press release for a pilot or network agreement

Readings: 'or Accelerated TMS' is read as 'for Accelerated TMS' (typo), per the finder and the sentence structure.; 'A national payor—or two' = at least one payer with national scope; a single-state or regional plan does not count.; 'It won't be broad—it will start with pilots and narrow network deals': the forecaster counts pilots and narrow network arrangements as coverage, so a publicly announced pilot or network agreement satisfies the event.; 'Accelerated TMS' = protocols with more than one TMS session per day (accelerated iTBS, SAINT/SNT-type), as in the related proposals new:uhc-covers-accelerated-tms-depression and new:additional-health-plan-covers-accelerated-tms.; 'We' is read as accelerated-TMS providers, which include the forecaster's employer Radial.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
False
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
8 Sep 2024
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Checked national-scope payers as of 2026-09-13. Aetna CPB 0469 lists accelerated TMS incl. SAINT as experimental; Cigna/Evernorth EN0383 (eff. 2026-03-15) lists accelerated protocols (TBS, SAINT, SNT) as experimental; UHC policy 2026T0536W (eff. 2026-02-01) lists theta-burst incl. accelerated protocols as unproven. Medicare pays SAINT codes 0889T-0892T only under OPPS at hospital outpatient sites (Magnus: MA, commercial and Medicaid case by case); this hospital-only payment, in place since 2025, is read as not a coverage policy for accelerated TMS in outpatient clinics. The 2026 accelerated-TMS policies found are regional (Premera eff. 2026-01-01, Highmark draft Jan 2026, BCBS South Carolina May 2026) and excluded. BrainsWay (2026-06-22) says the VA has policy language supporting accelerated TMS but names no published policy; unverified. No national pilot or network agreement found.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
0.01 = (0.10 − 0)²
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Muir promised A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting 3 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
202320242025202620272028202320242025202620272028TODAY2022-09-08: by 2024-09-08 · p 0.102025-11-30: by 2027-11-30 · p 0.902026-01-01: by 2026-12-31 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0050

Timeline

1 claim against 26 events in the field.

saiddueevent
7 Mar 2023 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Mace and Dean: Breakthrough Therapies Act reintroduced to let DEA move FDA breakthrough-designaSENS. BOOKER AND PAUL; REPS. MACE AND DEAN: BREAKTHROUGH THERAPIES ACT REINTRODUCED TO LET DEA MOVE FDA BREAKTHROUGH-DESIGNA22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net heal23 Sep 2024 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: MHPAEA final rule published (released September 9): NQTL comparative-analysis an3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattA NATIONAL US PAY…A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · stated 8 Sep 2022A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · restated 8 Sep 2022 · p 10%A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · miss 8 Sep 202410%TODAY2023202420252026

Payer and policy