Known true · enters 16 May 2028

A US health plan other than Premera, Highmark, CareFirst and the Blue Cross Blue Shield plans of California, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont publishes a medical policy that covers accelerated TMS.

TRUE on the effective date of a published medical policy, coverage bulletin or fee schedule from a US health plan that is not one of the seven plans the forecaster listed on 16 May 2026 (Premera, Highmark, CareFirst, and the Blue Cross Blue Shield plans of California, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont) and that lists an accelerated TMS protocol (multiple sessions per day, such as SAINT/SNT or SWIFT) as medically necessary for any indication. A policy update or expansion by one of the seven listed plans does not count; coverage of conventional once-daily TMS does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy has taken effect by then. Resolved on the payer's published policy bulletin.

Resolution source: US health plan medical policy bulletins (Blue Cross Blue Shield plan policy libraries and other payer policy sites)

Readings: 'more to come' = at least one additional US health plan beyond the seven the forecaster named; the countable set is US health plans with a published accelerated TMS coverage policy.; 'Premara' is read as Premera Blue Cross; 'California, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont' are read as the Blue Cross Blue Shield plans in those states, per the post context.; The forecaster names no indication, so a policy for any indication counts.

escalated (criterion): Attacked the criterion and the 2024-07-01 date. The IBX facts hold: the provider notice revises 07.03.22f and MA07.035e to make accelerated theta burst stimulation (SAINT, 10 daily sessions over five days) medically necessary, retroactively effective 2024-07-01, with the final policy issued 2024-12-02. Two problems. First, 2024-07-01 is a retroactive effective date; no policy was published on that day, and the notice carries no publication date in the evidence, so 'the effective date of a published medical policy' is strained. Second, and larger, the criterion resolves TRUE almost two years before the 2026-05-16 statement it scores. The forecaster said 'more to come' after listing seven plans; a policy already in force in 2024 shows the list was incomplete, not that the forecast came true. The resolver also concedes that earlier policies from other plans were not ruled out, so 2024-07-01 is not established as first-true.