Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Payer and policy

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Coverage decisions, fee schedules, parity enforcement, telehealth rules, state programs and legislation that govern payment for and access to these treatments.

Leaderboard

No forecaster has 5 resolved events yet.

score95% rangeprovisional (under 30 events)resolved events toward the 5 a score needsreference rowcoin flip 0.25
COIN FLIPANGERMAYER0of 5DOBLIN1of 5MUIR4of 500.10.20.30.40.5← BETTERBRIER
How to read
Persons are ranked only when both have 5 or more resolvedA cluster with at least one scored item. Only resolved clusters count toward n. Method › events, share a coverage tierHow completely a person's claims were collected: A complete archive, B archive plus search, C search-built. Ranks are shown only inside one tier. Method ›, and their intervalsThe 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of a statistic over many resamples of the clusters with replacement, drawn with a seeded generator so every run gives the same interval. It shows how much the number could move if the events were redrawn. Method › do not overlap; otherwise rows are alphabetical. The evidence tierHow much resolved evidence a person has: T0 fewer than 10 clusters (counts only), T1 10 to 29 (provisional), T2 30 or more (full). Method › sets whether a row shows a score or a count. Comparators are ad hoc collections (tier C): they get a score at the same minimum, but a search-built corpus under-counts claims, so they are never ranked against the full archive. The reference rowsA leaderboard row that is not a person: the base rate or the market, scored with its own probability on the same clusters. Shows what a rule of thumb would have scored. Method › are scored on the same events; the coin flipThe constant 0.25, the Brier score of saying 0.50 on every item. Drawn as a reference line; not a row on the leaderboard. Method › is the score of saying fifty-fifty every time.

Payer and policy · 5 events

Status

2 of 6 resolved claims came true.

TRUETRUE2FALSEFALSE4KNOWN TRUEKNOWN TRUE3PENDINGPENDING10VOIDVOID120ITEMS1 TICK = 1 ITEM

Payer and policy · 20 items

Claims and events

20 claims against 26 events in the field.

saiddueevent
7 Mar 2023 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Mace and Dean: Breakthrough Therapies Act reintroduced to let DEA move FDA breakthrough-designaSENS. BOOKER AND PAUL; REPS. MACE AND DEAN: BREAKTHROUGH THERAPIES ACT REINTRODUCED TO LET DEA MOVE FDA BREAKTHROUGH-DESIGNA22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net heal23 Sep 2024 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: MHPAEA final rule published (released September 9): NQTL comparative-analysis an3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattA US HEALTH INSUR…A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · stated 7 Apr 2016A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · restated 7 Apr 2016 · p 70%A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · void 7 Apr 2018A US LICENCE LETS…A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · stated 6 Nov 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 6 Nov 2020 · p 60%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 80%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 27 Oct 2021 · p 80%A US LICENCE LETS…A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · stated 13 Dec 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · restated 13 Dec 2020 · p 50%A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · miss 13 Dec 2022A NATIONAL US PAY…A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · stated 8 Sep 2022A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · restated 8 Sep 2022 · p 10%A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · miss 8 Sep 2024MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · stated 6 Jun 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · restated 6 Jun 2023 · p 50%Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · hit 1 Oct 2023MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · stated 1 Dec 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · restated 1 Dec 2023 · p 90%Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · miss 1 Dec 2025ERISA FIDUCIARY L…ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · stated 23 May 2024ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · restated 23 May 2024 · p 90%ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · hit 19 Mar 2026MEDICARE NEW TECH…Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · stated 26 May 2024Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · restated 26 May 2024 · p 70%Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · miss 26 May 2026PARITY LITIGATION…Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · stated 14 Oct 2024Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · restated 14 Oct 2024 · p 50%LAWSUIT FILED OVE…Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · stated 2 Apr 2025Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · restated 2 Apr 2025 · p 90%Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · restated 2 Apr 2025 · p 90%Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · restated 2 Apr 2025 · p 90%UNITEDHEALTHCARE…UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression · stated 9 Aug 2025UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression · restated 9 Aug 2025 · p 10%UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression · restated 9 Aug 2025 · p 10%ENACTMENT OF S.17…Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · stated 29 Sep 2025Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · restated 29 Sep 2025 · p 50%A NATIONAL US PAY…A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · stated 30 Nov 2025A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · restated 30 Nov 2025 · p 90%ERISA FIDUCIARY L…ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · stated 1 Jan 2026ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%A NATIONAL US PAY…A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · stated 1 Jan 2026A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · restated 1 Jan 2026 · p 90%AN ADDITIONAL US…An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · stated 5 Jan 2026An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · restated 5 Jan 2026 · p 90%A US HEALTH PLAN…A US health plan covers MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD · stated 25 Mar 2026A US health plan covers MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD · restated 25 Mar 2026 · p 90%A US HEALTH PLAN…A US health plan covers accelerated TMS for PTSD, bipolar disorder, OCD or ADHD · stated 11 May 2026A US health plan covers accelerated TMS for PTSD, bipolar disorder, OCD or ADHD · restated 11 May 2026 · p 70%AN ADDITIONAL US…An additional US health plan covers accelerated TMS · stated 16 May 2026An additional US health plan covers accelerated TMS · restated 16 May 2026 · p 90%A US HEALTH PLAN…A US health plan covers intravenous ketamine for bipolar depression · stated 3 Sep 2026A US health plan covers intravenous ketamine for bipolar depression · restated 3 Sep 2026 · p 30%TODAY2017201920212023202520272029203120332035

Headline panel · Payer and policy

Claims

20 claims since 2016; 6 resolved, 13 pending.

truefalsependingvoid
20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420357 APR 2016A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · void · p 70%AFF6 NOV 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · pending · p 79%13 DEC 2020A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use · false · p 50%8 SEP 2022A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · false · p 10%6 JUN 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for SAINT Neuromodulation · true · p 50%1 DEC 2023Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · false · p 90%23 MAY 2024ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · true · p 90%26 MAY 2024Medicare new technology add-on payment for a psychedelic medicine · false · p 70%14 OCT 2024Parity litigation or enforcement over UnitedHealthcare/Optum pre-payment review of mental health claims · pending · p 50%2 APR 2025Lawsuit filed over the Cigna/Evernorth adolescent TMS coverage policy · pending · p 90%9 AUG 2025UnitedHealthcare covers accelerated TMS for depression · pending · p 10%29 SEP 2025Enactment of S.1717, the Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act · pending · p 50%30 NOV 2025A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026ERISA fiduciary lawsuit citing mental health parity (MHPAEA) violations is filed · pending · p 90%1 JAN 2026A national US payer covers accelerated TMS in the outpatient clinic setting · pending · p 90%AFF5 JAN 2026An additional US health plan covers TMS for adolescent depression · pending · p 90%25 MAR 2026A US health plan covers MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD · pending · p 90%AFF11 MAY 2026A US health plan covers accelerated TMS for PTSD, bipolar disorder, OCD or ADHD · pending · p 70%16 MAY 2026An additional US health plan covers accelerated TMS · pending · p 90%3 SEP 2026A US health plan covers intravenous ketamine for bipolar depression · pending · p 30%TODAYDOT AREA = P · HAIRLINE = SAID TO DUE

Payer and policy · all admitted items