True · Brier 0.09

Worldwide net sales of Spravato (esketamine nasal spray) reach at or above US$1 billion in a calendar year, per Johnson & Johnson's reported product sales.

Resolved on the named data series only: worldwide net trade sales of Spravato (esketamine nasal spray) in Johnson & Johnson's product-sales tables in its periodic reports on SEC EDGAR (Form 10-K and 10-Q) and the sales exhibits of its quarterly earnings releases (Form 8-K). TRUE on the date of the first Johnson & Johnson report that shows Spravato worldwide net sales at or above US$1 billion for a calendar year. 'Blockbuster' in the forecaster's words is read as US$1 billion of annual sales, the standard industry meaning, so the event resolves as binary at US$1 billion with no band. FALSE at the deadline when no completed calendar year has reached US$1 billion in the reported series. Unresolvable if the series stops and no figure has published 12 months after the deadline. Realized values are stored, not scored.

Resolution source: Johnson & Johnson product sales tables in its Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and earnings-release exhibits on SEC EDGAR

Readings: '"blockbuster" status' = annual sales of US$1 billion, the standard industry meaning; the forecaster puts the word in quotation marks and gives no other number.; 'shortly' is not a deadline; the item goes to the undated panel.; The passive 'anticipated to' is adopted by the forecaster: he uses the Spravato trajectory as the precedent for his own thesis in the same tweet.

upheld (date): Case for an earlier date: Spravato sales were running above US$250 million a quarter through 2024, so a rolling four-quarter total crossed US$1 billion inside 2024, and the Q3 2024 Form 10-Q would then be the first report showing it. The criterion blocks this: it asks for Spravato worldwide net sales at or above US$1 billion 'for a calendar year' in the named series, and no J&J report before the 2024 full-year figures states one. The Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2 supplementary sales data filed 2025-01-22 gives SPRAVATO worldwide US$1,077 million for full-year 2024 against US$689 million for 2023, up 56.4%. 2023 is below the threshold, so 2024 is the first qualifying calendar year and 2025-01-22 the first report of it. The FY2024 Form 10-K of 2025-02-13 repeats it; FY2025 at US$1,696 million confirms the series. State, date and realized value stand.