Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Known true · enters 18 Feb 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Christian Angermayer · Said 18 Feb 2026 · angermayer-0027

Quote

“I expect major index inclusions over the coming months.”
· Psychedelic Medicines - a Time for Stockpickers (Christian's Substack) · own post

AtaiBeckley would be added to major stock indices in the first half of 2026.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Company and market outcomes
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 18 Feb 2028
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “I expect”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0059 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry

AtaiBeckley (atai Life Sciences, Nasdaq: ATAI) is added to a major stock market index, per the index provider's announcement.

TRUE on the date of the index provider's announcement (an addition notice or a reconstitution list) that names AtaiBeckley (atai Life Sciences, Nasdaq: ATAI) as an addition to a major stock market index, read as: the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 or S&P SmallCap 600; the Russell 1000, 2000 or 3000; the Nasdaq-100 or the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index; or an MSCI standard or small-cap country, regional or world index. An index of which ATAI was already a constituent on the statement date, a thematic or custom index built for one fund, or a total-market index that admits every listed stock automatically (for example the Nasdaq Composite) does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such announcement is dated by then. Resolution source: the index provider's announcement (S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, Nasdaq or MSCI); the company's press release or SEC filing as a secondary source.

Resolution source: Index provider announcements (S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, Nasdaq, MSCI); AtaiBeckley press release or SEC filing as a secondary source

Readings: 'Over the coming months' is not a deadline; 'major' index is left to the resolution criterion.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
18 Feb 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
occurred on 22 May 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
FTSE Russell's preliminary reconstitution list 'Russell 3000 Index - Additions', posted 2026-05-22, names ATAIBECKLEY INC (ATAI); the name stayed on the 2026-06-18 update and the 2026-06-26 final list, and AtaiBeckley's 2026-06-25 release confirms addition to the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 effective at the open on 2026-06-29. Russell 2000/3000 are listed qualifying indexes and ATAI was not a prior constituent. The March 2026 additions to the S&P Total Market, S&P Completion and CRSP indexes do not qualify. Not verified: whether ATAI was newly added to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index in December 2025 (Nasdaq's release could not be retrieved); if it was, and the statement predates that announcement, the first qualifying date would move earlier. Lilly's acquisition of AtaiBeckley closed 2026-09-11, after the addition.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
Adversarial recheck

escalated (date): Attacked the date. The gap the resolver left open breaks it. Nasdaq added Atai Beckley N.V. (ATAI) to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index in the December 2025 annual reconstitution, effective before the open on 2025-12-22; the company confirmed this on 2025-12-23, and a peer addition release dated 2025-12-16 shows Nasdaq had announced the reconstitution by then. The NBI is a named qualifying index, so the first qualifying announcement is Nasdaq's December 2025 notice, about five months before the Russell 3000 preliminary list of 2026-05-22. The Russell facts themselves stand: ATAI is on the 2026-05-22 preliminary list and the final list, effective 2026-06-29. Which date is first-true turns on the statement date, which I cannot see. If the statement predates the December 2025 announcement, the date moves to that notice; if it postdates it, ATAI was already an NBI constituent, NBI is excluded and 2026-05-22 stands.

How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Angermayer promised AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index 2 times; it happened on 22 May 2026.

promised datehappened
202620272028202620272028TODAY2026-02-18: by 2028-02-18 · p 0.702026-05-07: by 2026-06-30 · p 0.702026-05-07: by 2026-06-30 · p 0.80HAPPENED 2026-05-22X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0059

Timeline

1 claim against 13 events in the field.

saiddueevent
18 Feb 2026 · Compass Pathways: Compass prices a $150M public offering the day after COMP006 topline; with warra1 Mar 2026 · Alto Neuroscience: Alto closes a $120M private placement led by Commodore Capital at $20 per share,17 Mar 2026 · Neuronetics: Neuronetics appoints Dan Reuvers as CEO as 2025 revenue nearly doubles after the7 Apr 2026 · Neuronetics: Neuronetics' top shareholder says the company has 'chronically underperformed' a29 Apr 2026 · GH Research: GH Research prices a $117.5M underwritten offering at $18 per share to fund the 13 May 2026 · Compass Pathways: Compass Q1 2026 update: rolling NDA sections already submitted, final submission25 Jun 2026 · Definium Therapeutics: Definium closes an upsized $805M public offering at $34 per share three days aft25 Jun 2026 · Helus Pharma: Helus completes a $50M underwritten offering, lifting cash to about $207M ahead 8 Jul 2026 · Done Global: Done founder Ruthia He is sentenced to 72 months in prison and fined $90M for th15 Jul 2026 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato): J&J Q2 2026 results show Spravato sales of $584M, up 25% quarter over quarter an16 Jul 2026 · Eli Lilly / AtaiBeckley: Lilly agrees to acquire AtaiBeckley for $6.75 per share cash plus a CVR of up to3 Aug 2026 · Helus Pharma: Helus Pharma appoints Michael Halstead as chief executive officer ahead of its p11 Sep 2026 · Eli Lilly / AtaiBeckley: Eli Lilly completes its acquisition of AtaiBeckley, taking BPL-003 and VLS-01 inELI LILLY / ATAIBECKLEY: ELI LILLY COMPLETES ITS ACQUISITION OF ATAIBECKLEY, TAKING BPL-003 AND VLS-01 INATAIBECKLEY (ATAI…AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index · stated 18 Feb 2026AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index · restated 18 Feb 2026 · p 70%70%TODAY20272028

Company and market outcomes

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