Pending · due 24 Oct 2030
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 24 Oct 2025 · angermayer-0141
Quote
“Then we have practically the whole population as our target group and that is I think what makes a tie in the next five plus years or can make us a 20 30 40 $50 billion company.”
AlphaNooner, Oct 2025. If preventative use becomes the paradigm some years after approval, Angermayer says atai can be a $20-50 billion company within five-plus years.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$20 billion
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 24 Oct 2030 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “in the next five plus years”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “I think what makes a tie in the next five plus years or can make us a 20 30 40 $50 billion company”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0112 · deadline 24 Oct 2030 · bin B
Registry entry
The market capitalization of atai Life Sciences (Nasdaq: ATAI, or its successor listing) is at or above US$20 billion at a market close, per Nasdaq closing price and shares outstanding in SEC filings.
Resolved on the named data series only: the market capitalization of atai Life Sciences (Nasdaq: ATAI, or its successor listing), computed as the Nasdaq closing share price multiplied by the shares outstanding stated on the cover page of atai's most recent periodic SEC filing on EDGAR. TRUE on the first trading day on which that closing market capitalization is at or above US$20 billion. The threshold is in the forecaster's words, so it resolves as binary at US$20 billion with no band. FALSE at the deadline when no market close has reached US$20 billion. If the shares stop trading with no successor listing and no price series has published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: Nasdaq closing price for ATAI and shares outstanding in atai Life Sciences periodic filings on SEC EDGAR
Readings: 'a 20 30 40 $50 billion company' = market capitalization of at least USD 20 billion; the range's lower bound is the threshold, as in E-0028.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 24 Oct 2030
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No market close has reached US$20B. The last close before checked_through was $7.35 on 2026-09-11. The cover page of the most recent periodic filing, the 10-Q filed 2026-08-11, states 370,864,669 shares outstanding as of 2026-08-07. 370,864,669 x $7.35 = $2,725,855,317, about 14% of the threshold. The 52-week high close was $7.45, so no close in the past year exceeded about $2.76B, and the market-cap history shows no earlier peak above $2.73B. Eli Lilly's July 2026 agreement values the equity at about $2.8B in cash plus about $1.0B in CVRs, which caps the price near current levels. Checked through 2026-09-14 only.
- Evidence
- AtaiBeckley Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (cover page: 370,864,669 shares of common stock outstanding as of August 7, 2026) · 11 Aug 2026
- Atai Beckley (ATAI) Market Cap & Net Worth · 11 Sep 2026
- Lilly to acquire AtaiBeckley ... $6.75 per share in cash, approximately $2.8 billion in equity value (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · 16 Jul 2026
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 20 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes