Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 31 Dec 2027

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Christian Angermayer · Said 4 Feb 2026 · angermayer-0025

Quote

“the voucher in any case wouldn't have changed anything more or less, and that "the FDA is allowing … to submit data on a rolling basis, which should get Compass a decision potentially late this year or early next year"”
· X post by @C_Angermayer on Compass being 'snubbed' for a National Priority Voucher · own post

Endorses a COMP360 FDA decision in late 2026 or early 2027 and says the missing priority voucher is immaterial; also says the coming years will be a watershed for the field.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
FDA action (approval or complete response letter) on the COMP360 NDA for treatment-resistant depression
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
31 Dec 2027 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “late this year or early next year”
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “should get Compass a decision”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0058 · deadline 31 Dec 2027 · bin B
Registry entry

The FDA issues its action (approval or complete response letter) on Compass Pathways' new drug application for COMP360 (psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression.

TRUE on the date of the FDA's first action on Compass Pathways' new drug application for COMP360 (psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression, in either direction: the approval letter as dated in Drugs@FDA (or in Compass Pathways' approval announcement), or a complete response letter as dated in Compass Pathways' announcement of it. The event is about the FDA reaching its decision, not the direction. A filing acceptance, a PDUFA goal date, an advisory committee vote, a review extension, a refuse-to-file letter or withdrawal of the application is not an action; if the application is never submitted, no action occurs. FALSE at the deadline when neither an approval in Drugs@FDA nor an announced complete response letter is dated by then. Resolution source: Drugs@FDA for an approval; Compass Pathways' press release for a complete response letter.

Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approval); Compass Pathways press release for a complete response letter

Readings: Quoted words endorsed as his own. 'A decision' is any FDA action, not approval. 'Early next year' read via the year row.; 'a decision' = an FDA action letter of either kind; this event is distinct from an approval event on COMP360.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder C

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Dec 2027
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No FDA action as of 2026-09-13. The COMP360 NDA is not yet fully submitted: Compass's Q2 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit filed 2026-08-05) state the rolling NDA submission and initial review are underway, with final submission expected in Q4 2026 and a commercial launch expected in H1 2027 subject to FDA approval. Drugs@FDA queried through openFDA returns no psilocybin product and no COMPASS sponsor entry; EDGAR shows no later Compass 8-K reporting an approval or complete response letter. The April 2026 rolling-review grant and national priority voucher are not actions under the criterion.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 20 events in the field.

saiddueevent
3 Mar 2026 · AtaiBeckley (BPL-003): AtaiBeckley reports a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA for BPL-003 in ATAIBECKLEY (BPL-003): ATAIBECKLEY REPORTS A SUCCESSFUL END-OF-PHASE 2 MEETING WITH FDA FOR BPL-003 IN 13 Apr 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-028 adding Spanish translations of REM18 Apr 2026 · President Trump: EO 14401 orders FDA priority vouchers for breakthrough psychedelics, an ibogaine23 Apr 2026 · DOJ / DEA (Acting AG Blanche): Final order moves FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical mar24 Apr 2026 · FDA: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360 psilocy24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways: FDA grants Compass a rolling NDA submission and review for COMP360 psilocybin in24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways, Usona Institute, Transcend Therapeutics: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360), Usona24 Apr 2026 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary says he expects an FDA approval decision on at least one priority psyched30 Apr 2026 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity / AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, the fir23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; t8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follFDA ACTION (APPRO…FDA action (approval or complete response letter) on the COMP360 NDA for treatment-resistant depression · stated 4 Feb 2026FDA action (approval or complete response letter) on the COMP360 NDA for treatment-resistant depression · restated 4 Feb 2026 · p 70%70%TODAY2027

Regulatory decisions

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