Pending · due 20 Feb 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 20 Feb 2025 · angermayer-0087
Quote
“While it had a slow start, Spravato sales are really picking up now, which is all the more impressive when you consider that only ~ 55k patients are treated with Spravato per year so far. I personally believe that in a few years this will be hundreds of thousands, potentially millions of patients.”
Spravato bullet; forecast of esketamine patient volumes.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Spravato patients treated per year at or above 200,000
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Practice adoption
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 20 Feb 2027
- Probability
- 0.80 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “I personally believe that in a few years this will be hundreds of thousands” · coders disagreed on the bin (A vs B); mean of 0.90 and 0.70
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0097 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
The number of patients treated with Spravato (esketamine) in a 12-month period is at or above 200,000, per Johnson & Johnson's public disclosures.
Resolved on the named data series only: Johnson & Johnson's public disclosures (annual report, earnings materials, investor presentations or press releases) of the number of patients treated with Spravato (esketamine) per year or in a stated 12-month period. TRUE on the date of the first such disclosure, dated between the statement date and the window end, that reports 200,000 or more patients treated with Spravato in a 12-month period (worldwide if J&J reports worldwide; US if J&J reports only US). The threshold is in the forecaster's words ('hundreds of thousands', read at its lower bound), so it resolves as binary at 200,000 with no band. FALSE at the window end when no such disclosure reports 200,000 or more. If Johnson & Johnson has published no patient count 12 months after the window end, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: Johnson & Johnson public disclosures of Spravato patients treated (annual report, earnings materials, investor presentations, press releases)
Readings: 'Hundreds of thousands' is read at its lower bound, 200,000 patients in a 12-month period (the smallest count that is 'hundreds' of thousands); 'potentially millions' is a hedged higher figure and does not set the threshold.; 'This' refers to the '~55k patients ... treated with Spravato per year' figure in the same sentence, so the metric is patients treated per year, on the same series the forecaster cites (J&J's disclosed patient count).; 'In a few years' has no N and is not an anchor, so the item is undated (24-month window from the statement date); the forecaster's own horizon is longer than the window, and that is logged.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 20 Feb 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- J&J discloses a cumulative patient count, not a 12-month count. CEO Joaquin Duato's figure, more than 200,000 patients treated with Spravato, is cumulative since the 2019 approval. The disclosed series runs 140,000 at the start of 2025, 180,000 at Q3 2025, and more than 200,000 at Q4 2025, which implies roughly 60,000 new patients in a 12-month period, far below the 200,000 threshold. No J&J disclosure reports 200,000 or more patients treated in a 12-month period. The event is not unresolvable: J&J does publish patient counts, they are just cumulative, so realized_value for a 12-month period is null.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 0 events in the field.
Practice adoption