Pending · due 16 May 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 16 May 2025 · angermayer-0096
Quote
“It of course always depends on the broader macro environment for biotech, but if all 4 phase 2 trials are successful atai should trade at a multiple of where it trades today.”
Reply to a follower asking about the share price after the DoubleBlind profile; conditional call that success in atai's four Phase 2 trials would lead to a multiple of the then share price.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- atai share price at or above twice its 16 May 2025 close
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 16 May 2027
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “should trade at a multiple of where it trades today”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0103 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
The Nasdaq closing price of atai Life Sciences (ATAI, or its successor listing) is at or above two times its closing price on 16 May 2025, per Nasdaq closing prices.
Resolved on the named data series only: the Nasdaq daily closing price of atai Life Sciences common stock (ATAI, or its successor listing), adjusted for any split or reverse split. The reference price is the ATAI Nasdaq close on 2025-05-16. TRUE on the first trading day after the statement date on which the closing price is at or above 2.0 times the reference price. The threshold is in the forecaster's words ('a multiple of where it trades today', read at its lower bound of two times), so it resolves as binary at 2.0 with no band. FALSE at the window end when no close has reached 2.0 times the reference price. If the shares stop trading with no successor listing and no price series has published 12 months after the window end, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: Nasdaq daily closing prices for ATAI (or successor listing)
Readings: 'A multiple of where it trades today' is read at its lower bound: a closing price at least two times the 2025-05-16 close, the smallest multiple.; 'Where it trades today' = the Nasdaq closing price on the statement date, 2025-05-16, a fact fixed on that date.; 'It of course always depends on the broader macro environment for biotech' is a hedge, not an observable condition; it is not coded as a condition.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 16 May 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 21 Jul 2025 · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Reference close 2025-05-16 = USD 1.65; threshold = USD 3.30. Closes after that date: 2025-07-17 2.79, 2025-07-18 3.23, 2025-07-21 3.53. The first close at or above 2.0 times the reference is 2025-07-21 at USD 3.53, a ratio of 2.14. Two independent republishers of the Nasdaq close (Macrotrends and Yahoo Finance) give identical values for 2025-05-16, 2025-07-18 and 2025-07-21. No split or reverse split is recorded in the series. The price stayed far above the threshold afterwards (USD 5.48 October 2025 offering price; USD 7.35 close on 2026-09-11). Eli Lilly completed its acquisition of AtaiBeckley on 2026-09-11, ending the ATAI listing, after the event had resolved.
- Evidence
- ATAI (atai Life Sciences / AtaiBeckley) daily stock price history, Nasdaq · 21 Jul 2025
- ATAI daily close series (NasdaqGM), Yahoo Finance chart data · 21 Jul 2025
- ATAI market activity, Nasdaq · 14 Sep 2026
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): Attacked the first-true date: the 2025-07-01 Phase 2b topline and the mid-July financing both moved ATAI sharply, so an earlier close could have crossed 2.0x. It did not. The Nasdaq daily close series (Yahoo Finance chart data, NasdaqGM) gives 2025-05-16 = 1.65, so the threshold is 3.30. Every close from 2025-05-19 to 2025-07-17 stays below it; the post-topline peak is 2.79 on 2025-07-17, and 2025-07-18 closes at 3.23 (confirmed at 3.22-3.23 by a third-party report of that session). The first close at or above 3.30 is 2025-07-21 at 3.53, a ratio of 2.14. No split or reverse split appears in the series, so no adjustment changes the ratio. Reference and threshold both rest on closing prices only, as the criterion requires. Recorded state and date stand.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 28 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes