Pending · due 5 Jun 2035
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 5 Jun 2025 · angermayer-0102
Quote
“In my view, mental health will be the largest market in healthcare within 10 years — surpassing oncology and cardiology.”
Commenting on Ferring Pharmaceuticals taking a stake in $ATAI, he argues big pharma has neglected mental health and forecasts it becomes the largest healthcare market.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Mental health becomes the largest therapeutic-area market in healthcare
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 5 Jun 2035 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “within 10 years”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “In my view, mental health will be the largest market in healthcare within 10 years”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0104 · deadline 5 Jun 2035 · bin A
Registry entry
Global annual sales of mental health treatments exceed those of every other therapeutic area, including oncology and cardiology, per a named published therapeutic-area market series.
Resolved on the named data series only: the IQVIA Institute's global medicine spending by therapeutic area (Global Use of Medicines report). TRUE for the first reporting year in which the series ranks the mental health therapeutic area first by global spending, above oncology, cardiovascular and every other area. The rank is read from the series as published; when the series publishes no separate mental health line, its nearest mental health category is used and the reading is logged at intake. FALSE at the deadline when no published year ranks mental health first. If the series has not published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: IQVIA Institute, Global Use of Medicines (spending by therapeutic area)
Readings: 'The largest market in healthcare' is read as the largest therapeutic-area market for medicines, the comparison the forecaster himself makes ('surpassing oncology and cardiology'), not all healthcare spending.; 'Within 10 years' fixes the deadline on the item, not the event.; A rank of 1 in the named series is the threshold; no band applies, because the claim is a rank, not a point number.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 5 Jun 2035
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The named series still ranks mental health well below first. The latest edition, Global Medicine Use Trends 2026 (published 2026-02-11), names oncology, immunology, diabetes and obesity as the leading therapy areas and the drivers of spending growth; no published year ranks mental health first. IQVIA's companion oncology report puts cancer medicine spending at USD 252 billion globally in 2024, rising to a forecast USD 441 billion by 2029, an order of magnitude above global mental health medicine spending. realized_value is null: the public summaries do not publish an exact numeric rank for the mental health line, only that it is not first. The series continues to publish, so the event is resolvable, not unresolvable.
- Evidence
- Global Medicine Use Trends 2026 (outlook to 2030) · 11 Feb 2026
- Global Oncology Trends 2025 · 22 May 2025
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 26 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes