True · Brier 0.04
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 8 May 2024 · angermayer-0175
Quote
“phase 2B the last study was phenomenally successful yeah so I would say the likelihood of a successful phase three is very very hard”
After Earnings, May 2024. Angermayer rates the likelihood of a successful Compass Phase 3 as very high based on Phase 2b.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 8 May 2026
- Probability
- 0.80 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “the likelihood of a successful phase three is very very high” · coders disagreed on the bin (B vs A); mean of 0.70 and 0.90
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0127 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
A Phase 3 trial of COMP360 (synthetic psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression reports its prespecified primary efficacy endpoint met with statistical significance.
TRUE on the date of the first Compass Pathways topline press release, ClinicalTrials.gov results posting or peer-reviewed publication that reports a Phase 3 trial of COMP360 (synthetic psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression as having met its prespecified primary efficacy endpoint with statistical significance against the control arm, as reported by the sponsor. A Phase 2 result, a secondary endpoint, an interim analysis, a long-term follow-up report and a conference abstract without the primary estimate do not count. Resolution source: Compass Pathways topline press releases, with ClinicalTrials.gov results as the secondary source. FALSE at the deadline when the first reported Phase 3 primary endpoint missed significance, or when no Phase 3 primary result is reported.
Resolution source: Compass Pathways topline press releases; ClinicalTrials.gov results as the secondary source
Readings: 'A successful phase three' reads as the prespecified primary efficacy endpoint met with statistical significance.; The first Phase 3 trial to report its primary result resolves the event.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 8 May 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 23 Jun 2025 · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The first Phase 3 trial to report its primary result met it. Compass Pathways states on 2025-06-23 that COMP005 achieved its prespecified primary endpoint: MADRS change from baseline at week 6, 25 mg COMP360 versus placebo, difference -3.6 points, p<0.001, in 258 participants with treatment-resistant depression. The second Phase 3 trial, COMP006 (25 mg versus 1 mg, difference -3.8 points, p<0.001), also met its primary endpoint, but the first report fixes the date. Accessed date used for the COMP006 release because its publication date was not read from the page.
- Evidence
- Compass Pathways Successfully Achieves Primary Endpoint in First Phase 3 Trial Evaluating COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression · 23 Jun 2025
- Compass Pathways Successfully Achieves Primary Endpoint in Second Phase 3 Trial Evaluating COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression (COMP006) · 14 Sep 2026
Adversarial recheck
upheld (state): Argued the state should be not_occurred, on the ground that a topline press release is the sponsor's own claim and no results are posted on ClinicalTrials.gov. The criterion settles it: the endpoint must be met 'as reported by the sponsor'. Compass Pathways reports COMP005 (NCT05624268, 258 participants) as achieving its prespecified primary efficacy endpoint against the placebo control, MADRS change from baseline at week 6, mean difference -3.6 points for 25 mg versus placebo, p<0.001, on 2025-06-23. That is the first Phase 3 primary result reported for COMP360 in TRD, so it fixes the date; the second trial, COMP006, only confirms the direction. State and date stand. One evidence defect: the COMP006 item carries 2026-09-14, the access date, in place of its publication date.
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Angermayer promised A COMP360 (psilocybin) Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint 2 times; it happened on 23 Jun 2025.
Cluster E-0127
Timeline
1 claim against 29 events in the field.
Trial outcomes