True · Brier 0.04
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 7 May 2026 · angermayer-0165
Quote
“and so my expectation is that that a tie will be included which should create an enormous sort of buying demand because I think some of our um peer group stocks are included”
AlphaNooner, May 2026. On short-term share softness, Angermayer expects AtaiBeckley to be added in the June Russell index rebalancing, creating large buying demand.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 30 Jun 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “June Russell index rebalancing (immediate context); 'from June on' in the same interview”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “my expectation is”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0059 · deadline 30 Jun 2026 · bin B
Registry entry
AtaiBeckley (atai Life Sciences, Nasdaq: ATAI) is added to a major stock market index, per the index provider's announcement.
TRUE on the date of the index provider's announcement (an addition notice or a reconstitution list) that names AtaiBeckley (atai Life Sciences, Nasdaq: ATAI) as an addition to a major stock market index, read as: the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 or S&P SmallCap 600; the Russell 1000, 2000 or 3000; the Nasdaq-100 or the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index; or an MSCI standard or small-cap country, regional or world index. An index of which ATAI was already a constituent on the statement date, a thematic or custom index built for one fund, or a total-market index that admits every listed stock automatically (for example the Nasdaq Composite) does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such announcement is dated by then. Resolution source: the index provider's announcement (S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, Nasdaq or MSCI); the company's press release or SEC filing as a secondary source.
Resolution source: Index provider announcements (S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, Nasdaq, MSCI); AtaiBeckley press release or SEC filing as a secondary source
Readings: 'Over the coming months' is not a deadline; 'major' index is left to the resolution criterion.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 30 Jun 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 22 May 2026 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- FTSE Russell's preliminary reconstitution list 'Russell 3000 Index - Additions', posted 2026-05-22, names ATAIBECKLEY INC (ATAI); the name stayed on the 2026-06-18 update and the 2026-06-26 final list, and AtaiBeckley's 2026-06-25 release confirms addition to the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 effective at the open on 2026-06-29. Russell 2000/3000 are listed qualifying indexes and ATAI was not a prior constituent. The March 2026 additions to the S&P Total Market, S&P Completion and CRSP indexes do not qualify. Not verified: whether ATAI was newly added to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index in December 2025 (Nasdaq's release could not be retrieved); if it was, and the statement predates that announcement, the first qualifying date would move earlier. Lilly's acquisition of AtaiBeckley closed 2026-09-11, after the addition.
- Evidence
- FTSE Russell Reconstitution - Russell 3000 Additions 2026-05-22 (preliminary list; names ATAIBECKLEY INC, ATAI, Health Care) · 22 May 2026
- FTSE Russell Reconstitution - Russell 3000 Additions (final list, 2026-06-26; names ATAIBECKLEY INC, ATAI) · 26 Jun 2026
- Russell Reconstitution 2026: preliminary lists posted 2026-05-22, updates 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-18, effective after close 2026-06-26
- AtaiBeckley to Join the Russell Indexes, Expanding Visibility Across U.S. Equity Markets · 25 Jun 2026
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- 0.04 = (0.80 − 1)²
- RestatementsAll of one person's items on one registry event. A cluster is one observation in every metric, so a claim repeated six times still gets one vote. Method ›
- angermayer-0166
Adversarial recheck
escalated (date): Attacked the date. The gap the resolver left open breaks it. Nasdaq added Atai Beckley N.V. (ATAI) to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index in the December 2025 annual reconstitution, effective before the open on 2025-12-22; the company confirmed this on 2025-12-23, and a peer addition release dated 2025-12-16 shows Nasdaq had announced the reconstitution by then. The NBI is a named qualifying index, so the first qualifying announcement is Nasdaq's December 2025 notice, about five months before the Russell 3000 preliminary list of 2026-05-22. The Russell facts themselves stand: ATAI is on the 2026-05-22 preliminary list and the final list, effective 2026-06-29. Which date is first-true turns on the statement date, which I cannot see. If the statement predates the December 2025 announcement, the date moves to that notice; if it postdates it, ATAI was already an NBI constituent, NBI is excluded and 2026-05-22 stands.
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Angermayer promised AtaiBeckley (ATAI) added to a major stock index 2 times; it happened on 22 May 2026.
Cluster E-0059
Timeline
1 claim against 8 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes