Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 20 Sep 2026

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“so to say we're jumping forward now and somewhere in the next years there going to be a take-home stuff is a is IR realistic but it would also be I'm very deeply deeply convinced it would be the wrong thing”
· 304: Christian Angermayer on Making Psychedelics Legal, Effective & Profitable (YouTube, Invest Like a Boss Podcast) · podcast

Invest Like a Boss, Sept 2024. Asked whether psychedelics become take-home prescriptions, Angermayer calls take-home psychedelics in the next years unrealistic and wrong.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 20 Sep 2026
Probability
0.20 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “IR realistic [unrealistic] ... I'm very deeply deeply convinced” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method › · coders disagreed on the bin (A vs B); mean of 0.10 and 0.30
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
denial, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0067 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry

The FDA approves a psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product whose approved labeling or REMS permits a retail pharmacy to dispense it to the patient for use outside a healthcare setting.

Resolved on Drugs@FDA (approval letters and approved labeling) read with the FDA REMS database (REMS@FDA). For each drug product whose active ingredient is psilocybin, LSD (lysergide, any salt) or MDMA (midomafetamine, any salt) that the FDA approves between the statement date and the deadline, check the approved labeling and any REMS in force on the approval date. TRUE on the approval date of the first such product whose labeling or REMS permits a retail or community pharmacy to dispense it to the patient or caregiver for use outside a healthcare setting. FALSE at the deadline if at least one such product has been approved and every such approval restricts dispensing to certified healthcare settings or requires administration under healthcare-provider supervision in a healthcare setting. If no such product is approved in the window, the condition is unmet and the item is void.

Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approval letters and labeling) with the FDA REMS database (REMS@FDA)

Readings: 'Go through a retail pharmacy' reads as the FDA-approved labeling or REMS permitting a retail or community pharmacy to dispense the product to the patient for use outside a healthcare setting.; A product restricted to certified healthcare settings, or whose label requires administration under healthcare-provider supervision in a healthcare setting (the Spravato model the author uses as the reference), does not go through a retail pharmacy.; 'Them' and 'these drugs' = drug products whose active ingredient is psilocybin, LSD (lysergide) or MDMA (midomafetamine), in any salt or formulation the sponsor names as such. 'None of them' denies the disjunction, so one event covers all three ('A or B' is one event).; Denial: the forecaster asserts that the proposition is false. The claim presupposes at least one approval; if none occurs in the window, the condition is unmet and the item is void rather than scored as a correct denial.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
20 Sep 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
Resolver note
Criterion: for each psilocybin, LSD or MDMA product approved in the window, read the approved labeling and any REMS; TRUE on the first approval that permits a retail or community pharmacy to dispense for use outside a healthcare setting. As of 2026-09-13 no such product is approved: Drugs@FDA searches for psilocybin, midomafetamine and lysergide return no results, FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 (current 2026-09-11) lists none, and REMS@FDA has no REMS for such a product. There is no approved labeling or REMS to read, so the proposition is not true as of checked_through. Pending: Compass COMP360 rolling NDA (final modules Q4 2026) and Resilient's midomafetamine NDA resubmitted August 2026. Scoring note: the criterion voids the item (condition unmet) if no such product is approved by the deadline; this outcome records only the state as of 2026-09-13.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 56 events in the field.

saiddueevent
26 Sep 2024 · Bristol Myers Squibb (Cobenfy / KarXT): FDA approves Cobenfy (xanomeline-trospium), the first muscarinic agonist for sch4 Nov 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-015 (package insert revision).5 Nov 2024 · Massachusetts voters: Massachusetts Question 4, a regulated natural psychedelics measure, fails with 419 Nov 2024 · DEA and HHS: Third temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicatio31 Dec 2024 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado begins accepting natural medicine business license applications; the re31 Dec 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-013.FDA / JANSSEN: FDA APPROVES SPRAVATO REMS MODIFICATION S-013.13 Jan 2025 · DEA Administrative Law Judge: DEA's chief ALJ cancels the January 21, 2025 marijuana rescheduling hearing pend17 Jan 2025 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rule creating special registrations for telemedicine pres17 Jan 2025 · DEA and HHS: Final rules allow a six-month buprenorphine supply via audio-only telemedicine a21 Jan 2025 · FDA / Johnson & Johnson: FDA approves Spravato (esketamine) as monotherapy for adults with treatment-resi21 Jan 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato): FDA approves Spravato as the first monotherapy for treatment-resistant depressio24 Mar 2025 · DEA and HHS: DEA and HHS delay the effective date of the buprenorphine and VA telemedicine fi24 Mar 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-018; the REMS still requires certified31 Mar 2025 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado issues its first healing center license to The Center Origin (announced7 Apr 2025 · New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham: Governor signs SB 219, the Medical Psilocybin Act (effective June 20, 2025): DOH15 May 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-021: minor revision to the Patient Mon16 May 2025 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary tells NewsNation the FDA will give psychedelic trial data 'an expeditious24 Jun 2025 · HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: At a House Energy and Commerce hearing, Kennedy says HHS is 'working very hard' 10 Jul 2025 · Czech Senate: Czech Senate gives final approval to a law allowing medical use of psilocybin fr11 Jul 2025 · BfArM (Germany): BfArM approves the EU's first compassionate use programme for psilocybin in trea18 Jul 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA advisory committee votes against brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD, cit31 Jul 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-024.4 Sep 2025 · FDA: FDA publicly releases the Lykos MDMA complete response letter, citing unreported4 Sep 2025 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA publicly releases the August 2024 Lykos CRL, detailing concerns on safety re18 Sep 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay's accelerated Deep TMS protocol for MDD, shortening treatme22 Sep 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA issues a CRL for brexpiprazole plus sertraline in PTSD, citing insufficient 9 Oct 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-025 with vendor-related changes to the6 Nov 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Caplyta, adjunctive MDD): FDA approves Caplyta (lumateperone) as adjunctive treatment for MDD based on two13 Nov 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay Deep TMS as an adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 to 215 Dec 2025 · New Mexico Department of Health: At the Medical Psilocybin Advisory Board's first meeting, DOH says patient acces18 Dec 2025 · President Trump: Executive order directs the Attorney General to complete marijuana rescheduling 31 Dec 2025 · DEA and HHS: Fourth temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati1 Jan 2026 · Czech Republic: Czech medical psilocybin framework takes effect: psychiatrists may administer ps5 Jan 2026 · GH Research (GH001): FDA lifts the clinical hold on GH001, clearing a global phase 3 program in TRD t12 Jan 2026 · Neurolief (Proliv Rx): FDA grants PMA approval to Neurolief's Proliv Rx, the first at-home brain neurom23 Jan 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-027, reverting the October 2025 vendor3 Mar 2026 · AtaiBeckley (BPL-003): AtaiBeckley reports a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA for BPL-003 in ATAIBECKLEY (BPL-003): ATAIBECKLEY REPORTS A SUCCESSFUL END-OF-PHASE 2 MEETING WITH FDA FOR BPL-003 IN 13 Apr 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-028 adding Spanish translations of REM18 Apr 2026 · President Trump: EO 14401 orders FDA priority vouchers for breakthrough psychedelics, an ibogaine23 Apr 2026 · DOJ / DEA (Acting AG Blanche): Final order moves FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical mar24 Apr 2026 · FDA: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360 psilocy24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways: FDA grants Compass a rolling NDA submission and review for COMP360 psilocybin in24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways, Usona Institute, Transcend Therapeutics: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360), Usona24 Apr 2026 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary says he expects an FDA approval decision on at least one priority psyched30 Apr 2026 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity / AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, the fir23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; t8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follPSILOCYBIN, LSD O…Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · stated 20 Sep 2024Psilocybin, LSD or MDMA drug product approved with retail-pharmacy dispensing · restated 20 Sep 2024 · p 20%20%TODAY20252026

Regulatory decisions