False · Brier 0.81
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 15 Apr 2024 · angermayer-0173
Quote
“I can tell you in the future people will go to their therapist and say I don't want to start with the [ __ ] stuff just to at the end come to psychedelics anyway I want to start with psychedelics so I think my expectation is psychedelics Will be the first line of defense not the final line”
Psychedelic Vantage, April 2024. Angermayer expects psychedelics to become first-line treatment rather than last resort, driven by patient demand.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Practice adoption
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 15 Apr 2026
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “my expectation is psychedelics Will be the first line of defense not the final line”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0111 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
A major clinical practice guideline for a psychiatric disorder lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment option.
TRUE on the publication date, in the guideline body's own published guideline document, of a clinical practice guideline for a psychiatric disorder that lists a psychedelic medicine (for example psilocybin, MDMA, LSD or 5-MeO-DMT) as a first-line treatment option for that disorder. A major guideline body is the American Psychiatric Association, NICE, the VA/DoD, the WFSBP or CANMAT. A draft, a proposal or a public-comment version is not adoption. A guideline that names the medicine only for treatment-resistant, second-line, adjunctive or last-resort use does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such guideline is published.
Resolution source: The published clinical practice guideline of the guideline body (American Psychiatric Association, NICE, VA/DoD, WFSBP or CANMAT)
Readings: 'Psychedelics can become first-line' is read as the class, so any one psychedelic medicine listed as first-line resolves the event.; 'Potentially even preventive treatments' is a second, weaker step in the same words and is not part of the condition; first-line listing alone resolves it.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 15 Apr 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No guideline from the named bodies lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line option. The VA/DoD major depressive disorder guideline page still shows the 2022 version as current; that work group considered psilocybin and other hallucinogens, MDMA and cannabis and recommended against them on safety and efficacy grounds. The APA practice guideline list shows no psychedelic guideline, and the APA position statement still calls the evidence inadequate outside approved research. The 2026 Monash (Australia) MDMA guideline is not from a named body and treats MDMA-assisted psychotherapy as non-routine, not first-line. Searched through 2026-09-14; no NICE, WFSBP or CANMAT first-line listing found.
- Evidence
- Management of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (2022) - VA/DOD Clinical Practice Guidelines · 1 Sep 2022
- The Management of Major Depressive Disorder: Synopsis of the 2022 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and U.S. Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guideline · 20 Sep 2022
- American Psychiatric Association Practice Guidelines · 14 Sep 2026
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Angermayer promised A major practice guideline lists a psychedelic medicine as a first-line treatment 4 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0111
Timeline
1 claim against 0 events in the field.
Practice adoption