Pending · due 1 Jul 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 1 Jul 2025 · angermayer-0103
Quote
“My personal view: BPL-003 has the potential to be a massive blockbuster drug!”
After summarizing the BPL-003 Phase 2b topline data.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- BPL-003 annual sales at or above US$1 billion
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 1 Jul 2027
- Probability
- 0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “has the potential to be a massive blockbuster drug”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0105 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry
Annual net sales of BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT) are at or above US$1 billion in a calendar year, per the sponsor's reported financial results.
Resolved on the named data series only: worldwide net product sales of BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT, mebufotenin) reported by its sponsor, licensee or successor in audited annual financial statements filed with the SEC. TRUE for the first reported financial year in which those net sales are at or above US$1,000,000,000. The threshold is the blockbuster number the word 'blockbuster' names, so it resolves as binary at US$1 billion with no band. Milestone payments, upfront licence fees, collaboration revenue and non-BPL-003 product sales do not count. FALSE at the deadline when no reported year reaches the threshold. If no such sales figure has published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: Sponsor annual report filed with the SEC (EDGAR); sponsor results press release as a secondary source
Readings: 'Blockbuster drug' is read at the standard industry definition: annual net sales at or above US$1 billion.; 'Has the potential to be' is a hedge on likelihood, not a separate condition; the event is the sales threshold itself.; The event is written on the asset BPL-003, so a change of sponsor name, a licence or an acquisition does not void it.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 1 Jul 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- BPL-003 has no marketing approval anywhere and therefore no net product sales in any reported financial year. Drugs@FDA holds no application for mebufotenin or BPL-003 at checked_through. The sponsor started the two pivotal Phase 3 studies, ReConnection-1 and ReConnection-2, in Q2 2026 and guides their topline readouts to early 2029, so the first possible approval is later still. Eli Lilly completed its acquisition of AtaiBeckley on 2026-09-11; the event follows the asset, so Lilly filings are now the series to read. realized_value is 0: no annual net product sales figure exists for BPL-003.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 23 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes