Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

False · Brier 0.49

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Christian Angermayer · Said 23 Feb 2024 · angermayer-0064

Quote

“Psilocybin - the active molecule in magic mushrooms - will likely replace classic antidepressants over time after approval by medical authorities.”
· The future is enhanced · own post

In the 'Sexual enhancement' section of 'The future is enhanced', Angermayer lists psychedelics among enhancement tools and claims psilocybin will displace classic antidepressants once approved.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 23 Feb 2026
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “will likely”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0124 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry

Annual prescription volume of approved psilocybin drug products is at or above the annual prescription volume of classic antidepressants, per a named prescription-volume series.

Resolved on the named data series only: annual US prescription counts in the IQVIA National Prescription Audit. TRUE for the first calendar year in which that series reports prescriptions dispensed for approved psilocybin drug products at or above prescriptions dispensed for classic antidepressants (SSRIs, SNRIs, tricyclics and MAOIs) in the same year and the same series. The threshold is a comparison of the two counts, so it resolves as binary at a ratio of 1, with no band. A year with no dispensed psilocybin prescriptions resolves FALSE for that year. FALSE at the deadline when no published year meets the comparison. If the series has not published the figures for the deadline year 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.

Resolution source: IQVIA National Prescription Audit, annual US prescription counts by product class

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
False
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
23 Feb 2026
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No psilocybin drug product has FDA approval as of 2026-09-14: Drugs@FDA returns no product with psilocybin as an active ingredient. The furthest-advanced candidate, Compass Pathways COMP360, is in a rolling NDA submission with final submission targeted for Q4 2026 and launch guided to H1 2027. With no approved product, no calendar year through 2025 can show dispensed psilocybin prescriptions in the IQVIA National Prescription Audit, so the ratio to classic antidepressant prescriptions is 0 and the criterion resolves FALSE for every published year. The IQVIA NPA is a subscription series and I could not read its tables directly; the zero rests on the absence of any approved product to dispense.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
0.49 = (0.70 − 0)²
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
PSILOCYBIN PRESCR…Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · stated 23 Feb 2024Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · restated 23 Feb 2024 · p 70%Psilocybin prescriptions exceed classic antidepressant prescriptions · miss 23 Feb 202670%TODAY20252026

Practice adoption

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