Void · Condition unmet
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 31 Jul 2024 · angermayer-0015
Quote
“If we succeed, and if we medicalise psychedelics, ATAI will be a double-, triple-digit billion-dollar company.”
atai would be worth US$10B to US$100B+ once psychedelics are medicalised.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Company and market outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 31 Jul 2026
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “will be”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- conditional, affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0028 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
The market capitalization of atai Life Sciences (Nasdaq: ATAI, or its successor listing) is at or above US$10 billion at a market close, per Nasdaq closing price and shares outstanding in SEC filings.
Resolved on the named data series only: the market capitalization of atai Life Sciences (Nasdaq: ATAI, or its successor listing), computed as the Nasdaq closing share price multiplied by the shares outstanding stated on the cover page of atai's most recent periodic SEC filing on EDGAR. TRUE on the first trading day on which that closing market capitalization is at or above US$10 billion. The threshold is in the forecaster's words, so it resolves as binary at US$10 billion with no band. FALSE at the deadline when no market close has reached US$10 billion. If the shares stop trading with no successor listing and no price series has published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.
Resolution source: Nasdaq closing price for ATAI and shares outstanding in atai Life Sciences periodic filings on SEC EDGAR
Readings: 'double-, triple-digit billion-dollar company' = market capitalization of at least USD 10 billion; the range's lower bound is the threshold.
How to read
Coder C
Resolution
- State
- VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Jul 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Series: Nasdaq close multiplied by the share count on the latest 10-Q cover (370,864,669 as of 2026-08-07). The highest close in the final months of trading was $7.44 on 2026-08-25, giving $2.76B (stored as realized_value); the last closes before Lilly's $6.75-cash-plus-CVR takeover closed on 2026-09-11 were $7.35 (2026-09-10 and 09-11), giving $2.73B. Earlier history is far lower: IPO-day cap $2.29B on 2021-06-18 and year-end caps of $1.22B (2021), $0.44B (2022), $0.23B (2023), $0.22B (2024) and $1.49B (2025). No close ever reached $10B. Closing prices come from Yahoo Finance and Stock Analysis, which both report Nasdaq closes (nasdaq.com timed out). ATAI stopped trading after the acquisition with no successor listing, so no later close can change this result.
- Evidence
- AtaiBeckley Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (cover page: 370,864,669 shares outstanding as of August 7, 2026) · 7 Aug 2026
- AtaiBeckley Inc. (ATAI) stock historical prices and data
- AtaiBeckley (ATAI) stock price history
- AtaiBeckley (ATAI) market cap and net worth history
- Lilly to acquire AtaiBeckley to advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression and other mental health conditions (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1) · 16 Jul 2026
- Lilly completes acquisition of AtaiBeckley for mental health drugs · 11 Sep 2026
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Angermayer promised atai Life Sciences market capitalization at or above US$10 billion 3 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0028
Timeline
1 claim against 40 events in the field.
Company and market outcomes