False · Brier 0.81
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 8 May 2024 · angermayer-0177
Quote
“solos cybin uh going to have the first phase three readout end of the year we're going to have a very big readout for one of my favorite drugs 5 me odmt yeah mid of the year”
After Earnings, May 2024. Catalysts: Compass psilocybin first Phase 3 readout end of 2024 and a big 5-MeO-DMT (BPL-003) readout mid 2024.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Compass Pathways reports its first COMP360 Phase 3 topline readout
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2024 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “end of the year”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “going to have the first phase three readout”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0126 · deadline 31 Dec 2024 · bin A
Registry entry
Compass Pathways reports the topline primary-endpoint result, in either direction, of the first Phase 3 trial of COMP360 (synthetic psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression.
TRUE on the date of the first Compass Pathways topline press release, ClinicalTrials.gov results posting or peer-reviewed publication that reports the primary endpoint result, in either direction, of a Phase 3 trial of COMP360 (synthetic psilocybin) in treatment-resistant depression. A Phase 2 result, an enrollment or trial-start announcement, a guidance statement on the expected readout date, an interim safety report and a conference abstract without the primary estimate do not count. Resolution source: Compass Pathways press releases, with ClinicalTrials.gov results as the secondary source. FALSE at the deadline when no such report is dated by then.
Resolution source: Compass Pathways topline press releases; ClinicalTrials.gov results as the secondary source
Readings: 'Readout' reads as the sponsor's first public report of the trial's primary endpoint result, in either direction.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2024
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 23 Jun 2025 · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- First sponsor topline report of a Phase 3 primary endpoint for COMP360 in treatment-resistant depression. The 2025-06-23 Compass Pathways press release reports COMP005 (NCT05624268, 258 participants, 32 US sites): difference in change from baseline in MADRS at week 6 for a single 25 mg dose versus placebo of -3.6 points, p<0.001. Earlier Compass announcements in the same trial covered recruitment completion and Part A dosing only, so they do not meet the criterion. The later COMP006 topline (2026) and the 52-week Part C open-label data (2026-09-09) are after this date. ClinicalTrials.gov shows the trial as completed with no results posted, so the sponsor release is the resolving source.
- Evidence
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- 0.81 = (0.90 − 0)²
- Happened laterFor items scored false whose event later happened: the months between the deadline and the outcome date. Median and quartiles are reported. Method ›
- Yes, 6 months after the deadline
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): Attacked the date, since a leak, an 8-K or a conference slide could have carried the primary estimate first, and one secondary report gives 2025-06-24. The sponsor release carries the dateline 2025-06-23 and reports the primary endpoint: MADRS change from baseline at week 6, a mean difference of -3.6 points for COMP360 25 mg versus placebo, p<0.001, in COMP005 (NCT05624268). Earlier COMP005 releases in 2025 announced completion of recruitment and completion of Part A dosing only, with no primary estimate, which the criterion excludes. The 2025-06-24 date in a third-party summary is a next-day pickup, not a separate report. ClinicalTrials.gov still shows the trial completed with no results posted, so the sponsor release is the resolving source. State and date stand.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 29 events in the field.
Trial outcomes