Known true · enters 7 May 2028
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 7 May 2026 · angermayer-0167
Quote
“what a lot of people play right now is that uh define will have phase three results. Yeah. And I want to make the prediction they're going to be amazing”
AlphaNooner, May 2026. Angermayer predicts MindMed's upcoming LSD (MM120) Phase 3 results will be amazing.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- The next DT120 (MM120, LSD) Phase 3 topline meets its primary endpoint
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 7 May 2028
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “I want to make the prediction they're going to be amazing”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0119 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
The first Phase 3 trial of DT120 (MM120, LSD) whose topline result Definium Therapeutics reports after 7 May 2026 meets its prespecified primary endpoint with statistical significance.
TRUE on the date of the sponsor's topline press release, ClinicalTrials.gov results posting or peer-reviewed publication that first reports, after 7 May 2026, the primary endpoint result of a Phase 3 trial of DT120 (MM120, lysergide) for any indication, when that report states that the prespecified primary endpoint was met with statistical significance as reported by the sponsor. FALSE on that date when the report states the primary endpoint was not met. Only the first Phase 3 topline reported after 7 May 2026 resolves the event; secondary endpoints, interim analyses and open-label data do not count.
Resolution source: Sponsor topline press release; ClinicalTrials.gov results; peer-reviewed publication
Readings: 'Phase three results ... going to be amazing' is read as the prespecified primary endpoint met with statistical significance; no effect-size threshold is given.; 'Define' / 'the finium' in the auto-caption = Definium Therapeutics (MindMed); its Phase 3 program is DT120 (MM120, LSD).; The words name no single trial, so the event is written on the next Phase 3 topline reported after the statement date rather than on a named NCT number; E-0065 (Voyage, either direction) is a different outcome type.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 7 May 2028
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 22 Jun 2026 · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Emerge is the first DT120 Phase 3 topline reported after 2026-05-07. On 2026-06-22 Definium reported that Emerge met its prespecified primary endpoint: change from baseline in MADRS total score at week 6, 8.1-point placebo-adjusted improvement (DT120 -13.3 vs placebo -5.2), p<0.0001, after a single 100 microgram dose in MDD. The sponsor states the primary and all key secondary endpoints were met. The later Voyage GAD topline (2026-08-12) does not resolve this event, because only the first Phase 3 topline after 2026-05-07 counts.
- Evidence
- Definium Therapeutics Announces Positive Topline Results from Phase 3 Emerge Study of DT120 Orally Disintegrating Tablet (ODT) in Major Depressive Disorder · 22 Jun 2026
- Positive Topline Results From Phase 3 Emerge Study of DT120 ODT in Major Depressive Disorder · 22 Jun 2026
- Definium Therapeutics Receives Breakthrough Therapy Designation for DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD Following Positive Phase 3 Results · 8 Sep 2026
Adversarial recheck
upheld (date): Attacked the 'first topline after 2026-05-07' clause, since a GAD readout was guided for the first half of 2026 and could have come before Emerge. It did not. The sponsor's press-release list shows no release between 2026-05-07 and the Emerge topline of 2026-06-22; Voyage (GAD) reported on 2026-08-12 and Panorama (GAD) on 2026-09-14, both later. Emerge is therefore the first DT120 Phase 3 topline after the statement date, and it is positive: single 100 microgram dose in MDD, MADRS change from baseline at week 6, 8.1 points better than placebo, p<0.0001, with all key secondary endpoints met, as the sponsor states. A later Breakthrough Therapy designation on 2026-09-08 cites the same positive Phase 3 result. Recorded state and date stand.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 7 events in the field.
Trial outcomes