Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 28 Jul 2027

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“I can actually see at least as one potential possibility how the FDA can sort of ease and and speed up trials that if you have the quality of data we have for 5 MODMT. um that maybe we can get to approval for 5 MBMT with just one phase three trial which would be a huge lot of both time win”
· #AlphaNooner - Inside $ATAI with Christian Angermayer (YouTube, AdvisorShares) · interview

AlphaNooner, July 2025. Angermayer floats the possibility that FDA could approve BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on a single Phase 3 trial given the Phase 2b data quality.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 28 Jul 2027
Probability
0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “one potential possibility ... maybe we can get to approval for 5 MBMT with just one phase three trial”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
phase2_to_approval_all · 0.15 · halvedWhen the item window is shorter than the base-rate class's median time to decision, the base rate is halved. The halved value is an upper bound that favours the person. Method › to 0.07 (window shorter than the median 72 months)
Tags
affiliated, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0107 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry

The FDA approves BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT) on an application whose efficacy evidence contains only one Phase 3 trial.

TRUE on the date the FDA approval letter or Drugs@FDA entry (or the sponsor's approval announcement) for a new drug application for BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT, mebufotenin), for any indication and under any sponsor name, is dated, when the approval letter, the FDA clinical review or the approved labeling (clinical studies section) lists exactly one adequate and well-controlled Phase 3 efficacy trial as the basis of efficacy; Phase 2 trials, open-label extensions and safety studies are not Phase 3 efficacy trials. An approval whose efficacy basis lists two or more Phase 3 efficacy trials resolves FALSE. A complete response letter, an FDA meeting agreement on a single-trial path, a designation or a filing acceptance is not an approval. FALSE at the deadline when no such approval appears in Drugs@FDA.

Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approval letter, review documents and labeling); sponsor press release as a secondary source

Readings: 'Approval for 5-MeO-DMT with just one phase three trial' = an FDA approval of BPL-003 whose efficacy basis is a single Phase 3 trial; the number of trials is read from the approval documents, not from the sponsor's plan.; No indication is named in the words; any indication counts. The Phase 2b programme referred to was in treatment-resistant depression.; Base rate class is fixed per item from the asset's stage on each statement date; the event-level class is null.; 'I can actually see ... as one potential possibility' is a hedge on likelihood, not a condition.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
28 Jul 2027
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No FDA approval of BPL-003 exists at checked_through: Drugs@FDA holds no application for mebufotenin or BPL-003. The programme is still pre-submission. After a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting (2026-03-03), the sponsor started two parallel Phase 3 trials, ReConnection-1 and ReConnection-2, in Q2 2026 and guides both topline readouts to early 2029. Two pivotal trials, not one, are now running, which bears on the single-trial reading, but the criterion reads the number of Phase 3 efficacy trials from the approval documents, and no such documents exist yet. Breakthrough Therapy designation (October 2025) is a designation, not an approval. This states nothing about later dates.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 35 events in the field.

saiddueevent
31 Jul 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-024.4 Sep 2025 · FDA: FDA publicly releases the Lykos MDMA complete response letter, citing unreported4 Sep 2025 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA publicly releases the August 2024 Lykos CRL, detailing concerns on safety re18 Sep 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay's accelerated Deep TMS protocol for MDD, shortening treatme22 Sep 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA issues a CRL for brexpiprazole plus sertraline in PTSD, citing insufficient 9 Oct 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-025 with vendor-related changes to the6 Nov 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Caplyta, adjunctive MDD): FDA approves Caplyta (lumateperone) as adjunctive treatment for MDD based on two13 Nov 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay Deep TMS as an adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 to 215 Dec 2025 · New Mexico Department of Health: At the Medical Psilocybin Advisory Board's first meeting, DOH says patient acces18 Dec 2025 · President Trump: Executive order directs the Attorney General to complete marijuana rescheduling 31 Dec 2025 · DEA and HHS: Fourth temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati1 Jan 2026 · Czech Republic: Czech medical psilocybin framework takes effect: psychiatrists may administer ps5 Jan 2026 · GH Research (GH001): FDA lifts the clinical hold on GH001, clearing a global phase 3 program in TRD t12 Jan 2026 · Neurolief (Proliv Rx): FDA grants PMA approval to Neurolief's Proliv Rx, the first at-home brain neurom23 Jan 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-027, reverting the October 2025 vendor3 Mar 2026 · AtaiBeckley (BPL-003): AtaiBeckley reports a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA for BPL-003 in ATAIBECKLEY (BPL-003): ATAIBECKLEY REPORTS A SUCCESSFUL END-OF-PHASE 2 MEETING WITH FDA FOR BPL-003 IN 13 Apr 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-028 adding Spanish translations of REM18 Apr 2026 · President Trump: EO 14401 orders FDA priority vouchers for breakthrough psychedelics, an ibogaine23 Apr 2026 · DOJ / DEA (Acting AG Blanche): Final order moves FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical mar24 Apr 2026 · FDA: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360 psilocy24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways: FDA grants Compass a rolling NDA submission and review for COMP360 psilocybin in24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways, Usona Institute, Transcend Therapeutics: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360), Usona24 Apr 2026 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary says he expects an FDA approval decision on at least one priority psyched30 Apr 2026 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity / AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, the fir23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; t8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follFDA APPROVES BPL-…FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial · stated 28 Jul 2025FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial · restated 28 Jul 2025 · p 50%50%TODAY20262027

Regulatory decisions