Pending · due 28 Jul 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 28 Jul 2025 · angermayer-0116
Quote
“I can actually see at least as one potential possibility how the FDA can sort of ease and and speed up trials that if you have the quality of data we have for 5 MODMT. um that maybe we can get to approval for 5 MBMT with just one phase three trial which would be a huge lot of both time win”
AlphaNooner, July 2025. Angermayer floats the possibility that FDA could approve BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on a single Phase 3 trial given the Phase 2b data quality.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- FDA approves BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) on the basis of one Phase 3 trial
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 28 Jul 2027
- Probability
- 0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “one potential possibility ... maybe we can get to approval for 5 MBMT with just one phase three trial”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- phase2_to_approval_all · 0.15 · halvedWhen the item window is shorter than the base-rate class's median time to decision, the base rate is halved. The halved value is an upper bound that favours the person. Method › to 0.07 (window shorter than the median 72 months)
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0107 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry
The FDA approves BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT) on an application whose efficacy evidence contains only one Phase 3 trial.
TRUE on the date the FDA approval letter or Drugs@FDA entry (or the sponsor's approval announcement) for a new drug application for BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT, mebufotenin), for any indication and under any sponsor name, is dated, when the approval letter, the FDA clinical review or the approved labeling (clinical studies section) lists exactly one adequate and well-controlled Phase 3 efficacy trial as the basis of efficacy; Phase 2 trials, open-label extensions and safety studies are not Phase 3 efficacy trials. An approval whose efficacy basis lists two or more Phase 3 efficacy trials resolves FALSE. A complete response letter, an FDA meeting agreement on a single-trial path, a designation or a filing acceptance is not an approval. FALSE at the deadline when no such approval appears in Drugs@FDA.
Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approval letter, review documents and labeling); sponsor press release as a secondary source
Readings: 'Approval for 5-MeO-DMT with just one phase three trial' = an FDA approval of BPL-003 whose efficacy basis is a single Phase 3 trial; the number of trials is read from the approval documents, not from the sponsor's plan.; No indication is named in the words; any indication counts. The Phase 2b programme referred to was in treatment-resistant depression.; Base rate class is fixed per item from the asset's stage on each statement date; the event-level class is null.; 'I can actually see ... as one potential possibility' is a hedge on likelihood, not a condition.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 28 Jul 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No FDA approval of BPL-003 exists at checked_through: Drugs@FDA holds no application for mebufotenin or BPL-003. The programme is still pre-submission. After a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting (2026-03-03), the sponsor started two parallel Phase 3 trials, ReConnection-1 and ReConnection-2, in Q2 2026 and guides both topline readouts to early 2029. Two pivotal trials, not one, are now running, which bears on the single-trial reading, but the criterion reads the number of Phase 3 efficacy trials from the approval documents, and no such documents exist yet. Breakthrough Therapy designation (October 2025) is a designation, not an approval. This states nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
- Drugs@FDA query for mebufotenin (openFDA): no matching application · 14 Sep 2026
- Drugs@FDA: FDA-Approved Drugs (search for BPL-003 / mebufotenin returns no approved application) · 14 Sep 2026
- BPL-003 Phase 3 Program Initiation on Track for Q2 2026 Following Successful FDA End-of-Phase 2 Meeting; AtaiBeckley Highlights Key Pipeline Milestones at 2026 Investor Day · 10 Mar 2026
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 35 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions